Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 for the weekend storm.. do we still post model stuff here? or in it's own thread? worthless at this time range but not much change on srfes just FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There's a risk of that being out to sea, of course. It would be nice to see the 12z suite build confidence, but it's still pretty far out. This is true, But i like the chances for that one which looks like it could have a more favorable track for the region as a whole because of the pattern we are entering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd like to see this thread eventually become just about what the models show and not what people think of a particular model, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is true, But i like the chances for that one which looks like it could have a more favorable track for the region as a whole because of the pattern we are entering I'd like to see it look a little less ragged on the Euro. The pieces are nice but it isn't quite "pretty" yet. Plenty of time for change in either direction re: Tuesday. Saturday's goalposts are narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 for the weekend storm.. do we still post model stuff here? or in it's own thread? worthless at this time range but not much change on srfes just FYI You certainly can. Once particular threats come into focus we'll break those out into threads but you can still post info in here as well with respect to what the model(s) show, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'd like to see this thread eventually become just about what the models show and not what people think of a particular model, etc... For clarity, are you guiding this thread in the direction of strict model observation rather than model analysis and opinion? (ex: "The 12z NAM shows an chance for OES Thursday in E MA" and not "I like the look for the JMA for Monday's tornado outbreak. I hope it's right. You should ignore the GFS on this one, it's a hot turd model.") Just trying to get a better understanding on specifically what you mean by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For clarity, are you guiding this thread in the direction of strict model observation rather than model analysis and opinion? (ex: "The 12z NAM shows an chance for OES Thursday in E MA" and not "I like the look for the JMA for Monday's tornado outbreak. I hope it's right. You should ignore the GFS on this one, it's a hot turd model.") Just trying to get a better understanding on specifically what you mean by this. why bother just post the model and don't discuss probably less than 1% of this forum can"t read a model, better yet just have a thread with text data, ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 why bother just post the model and don't discuss probably less than 1% of this forum can"t read a model, better yet just have a thread with text data, ugh And you are only allowed to post data tables if you are on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For clarity, are you guiding this thread in the direction of strict model observation rather than model analysis and opinion? (ex: "The 12z NAM shows an chance for OES Thursday in E MA" and not "I like the look for the JMA for Monday's tornado outbreak. I hope it's right. You should ignore the GFS on this one, it's a hot turd model.") Just trying to get a better understanding on specifically what you mean by this. I'm in the boat of mostly just showing/interpreting what the models show in here as well as peoples personal thoughts/analysis of a system without the emotions of "oh woe is me". If you have an issue with a models output explain why rather than the "model blows". I don't need the NAM/SREFs, GFS blows type stuff. That ran its course a decade ago and belongs in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm in the boat of mostly just showing/interpreting what the models show in here as well as peoples personal thoughts/analysis of a system without the emotions of "oh woe is me". If you have a issue with a models output is explain why rather than the "model blows". I don't need the NAM/SREFs, GFS blows type stuff. That ran its course a decade ago and belongs in the banter thread. But the SREF's do blow. It's important to repeat this once a day, otherwise we forget, and then we get hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 But the SREF's do blow. It's important to repeat this once a day, otherwise we forget, and then we get hurt. And I'd say they don't. All models have a time and place when they are useful. Knowing when that is is also important. Some people get all bent out of shape when someone just posts what a model shows (whether it's an accurate solution or not). Nothing more annoying than that to me when there is no control over what a model spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 SREFs blow outside 24 hrs. Renders them meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 is it me or is the new gfs jumpier than the old one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 is it me or is the new gfs jumpier than the old one It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's interesting how the high res Euro has a much sharper cut-off to the precip than the lower res Euro. Sort of interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And I'd say they don't. All models have a time and place when they are useful. Knowing when that is is also important. Some people get all bent out of shape when someone just posts what a model shows (whether it's an accurate solution or not). Nothing more annoying than that to me when there is no control over what a model spits out. Pick up on the jokes, kid, lest ye become one yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RGEM has a nice looking inverted trough early tomorrow morning. With decent snow growth we'll have to watch that for a weenie band of heavier snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 1/26/11? Earlier I think someone said that storm was a top analogue for Saturday. I did. Yes, you are correct, somebody did say that...maybe Barocliniczone?? I'm not sure. Nope. Was still me. I think SnowGoose pulled up the analog. Wrong again..... Australian is a miss but a bomb...damn..... Wait....the Australians have a model? Learn something new everyday. Ec ensembles seemed near BM on Saturday, but a bit further east early next week. The mean might be near the BM, but there is a rather impressive cluster of low pressure centers that appear to pass inside the BM to near ACK. Which gets my attention because the precip shield cut-off is going to piss me off. Tippy & I will end up smoking cirrus if this thing goes over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RGEM has a nice looking inverted trough early tomorrow morning. With decent snow growth we'll have to watch that for a weenie band of heavier snow? I saw that .. What was the timing could catch early commuters off guard on the roads especially south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I did. Nope. Was still me. Wrong again My bad. It was you. Congrats? Let's hope the analog is more than just that...and similarities come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Based on hour 96 of the GFS 500 mb height pattern. 1/27/2011 is still the top analogue when using the CIPS page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 My bad. It was you. Congrats? Let's hope the analog is more than just that...and similarities come to fruition. No worries. Just thought it was funny. It would be nice if this thing didn't have such a tight qpf shield. That way all of SNE could get in on the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Pick up on the jokes, kid, lest ye become one yourself. I know all the games people play in here. It's quite tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So taking a closer look at the 51 individual members of the Euro Ensemble I would estimated that approximately half of them would leave all of SNE rather happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So taking a closer look at the 51 individual members of the Euro Ensemble I would estimated that approximately half of them would leave all of SNE rather happy. For both systems or just the first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For both systems or just the first? Sorry. Just the first system. Ya know. I'm going to myself for saying this, but based of where the cluster of Euro Ensemble members have been the last few runs, the 12z NAM solution is not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is a little se for a big hit outside se ma but....it's still in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is in a nice spot for me, let's keep it there, we rain the most and in the 12z NAM solution we rain. Ugh, I hate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like 12z GFS will be a bit west and stronger than 6z for the Monday night deal, but a glancing shot over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 2nd storm OTS similar to 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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