wxmanmitch Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Even with all of the uncertainty, the one thing that is certain with regards to this event, QPF will not be a problem for MPM and others around here. The bigger issue is precipitation type, but the soundings on the 12z NAM and GFS are exceedingly close to being an epic front end dump for the Berkshires. The warmest air is generally at or below 850 mb and is only around 1° to 2° C during the front end. It wouldn't take much for this to become an isothermal blue bomb, especially with a little bit of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm pretty resigned to the fact that the low-level CAD is going to lose out and that our best bet is to romp on the front end and then follow your member name. I'll consider it a win if there's a net gain. And I offer my condolences as well Don. Not that it makes it any easier, but almost 92 is a great, long life. Those ripping easterly's are going to scour that air out rather quickly but if we can thump on the front then dryslot, That would be a win for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Going to be a tough week personally. Big-time OT. My dad passed early this morning. Age 91 would have turned 92 on the solstice, fitting it be Dec 7th. A WW2 vet. Still getting word out to the whole family. This is my first and only mention on social media. I consider many here my friend and in many ways extended family. Tears from heaven all week...fitting. My condolences as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That rain to Montreal idea might still work lol. So SNE has now lost the backlash . We would have had met commentary on it Don my condolences to you. Very difficult situation and time of year. Thoughts and prayers to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 My sympathy as well Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Going to be a tough week personally. Big-time OT. My dad passed early this morning. Age 91 would have turned 92 on the solstice, fitting it be Dec 7th. A WW2 vet. Still getting word out to the whole family. This is my first and only mention on social media. I consider many here my friend and in many ways extended family. Tears from heaven all week...fitting. Don, my dad passed last March at 94. My condolences. Tough stretch for both of us. I'm sure they'll join forces to treat us to a natural spectacle so divine that we won't be left with any other way to interpret the sheer magnitude of the exquisitely placed blizzard then as the opening salvo from another dimension of their assault on all of the negative karma that we have each been inflicted with this year. Here's to breaching the space/time continuum this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 GFS rips some pretty big mid-level warmth west. That might even flip powderfreak over. Definitely flips up here...really wraps it around to the west, especially in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Even with all of the uncertainty, the one thing that is certain with regards to this event, QPF will not be a problem for MPM and others around here. The bigger issue is precipitation type, but the soundings on the 12z NAM and GFS are exceedingly close to being an epic front end dump for the Berkshires. The warmest air is generally at or below 850 mb and is only around 1° to 2° C during the front end. It wouldn't take much for this to become an isothermal blue bomb, especially with a little bit of elevation. Yeah just west of here in Savoy could be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Ggem is almost all rain for much of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Sorry Don. I can't imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Ggem is almost all rain for much of New England Hideous. Parked over Bennington at 66z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Ggem is almost all rain for much of New England It has been the furthest west of any other model right along the whole time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Going to be a tough week personally. Big-time OT. My dad passed early this morning. Age 91 would have turned 92 on the solstice, fitting it be Dec 7th. A WW2 vet. Still getting word out to the whole family. This is my first and only mention on social media. I consider many here my friend and in many ways extended family. Tears from heaven all week...fitting. Very sorry for your loss Don. You have had it tough as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 It has been the furthest west of any other model right along the whole timeFor folks that are in the game .. I sure hope it's wrong for you guys or its congrats Syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 For folks that are in the game .. I sure hope it's wrong for you guys or its congrats Syracuse I can't really remember when it has been right on any event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I suggest abandoning the investment ship as it relates to this week's system....as far as I'm concerned, let's replenish the mall parking lot bankings in the south towns of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 What are the models seeing to go so far west? I thought the high was retreating NNW and this past low would block. Can a met explain? ALY has me on the fringe of a foot and a half, but I keep hearing rain to Montreal??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Going to be a tough week personally. Big-time OT. My dad passed early this morning. Age 91 would have turned 92 on the solstice, fitting it be Dec 7th. A WW2 vet. Still getting word out to the whole family. This is my first and only mention on social media. I consider many here my friend and in many ways extended family. Tears from heaven all week...fitting. Condolences! : ( 91 is a good long life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Ukie is west too. Euro may come west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This just shows how hard storms like this are to forecast. People like me and you are out but if I lived in the berks or nne I would be watching every model run they have a very real chance at a massive snowstorm Ggem is almost all rain for much of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Condolences Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I suggest abandoning the investment ship as it relates to this week's system....as far as I'm concerned, let's replenish the mall parking lot bankings in the south towns of Buffalo.well IDK about that for the large segments of our board not on the CP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This has Adirondacks/Tug written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 well IDK about that for the large segments of our board not on the CP Most of them rain....waaaaay beyond the cp, buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 For folks that are in the game .. I sure hope it's wrong for you guys or its congrats Syracuse That run may have the most snow yet for up here haha. It's because we get a good foot thumping before dryslot drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This has Adirondacks/Tug written all over it.I think that's possible but premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Most of them rain....waaaaay beyond the cp, buddy.you are tossing the Euro, Ens and going with the GEM, that's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I think that's possible but premature. Front end shellacking from Sugarloaf to here and into the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Don't see this track too much. Like a non-tropical, slow moving, Long Island Express... Call it the Long Island local? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 GFS punching warmth - ha. You guys must have commented on the GGEM from 00z, then. Or perhaps it was ignored, I dunno ... but that sucker flips the mountain tops to rain and soars everyone into the mid 50s even to nearly BTV. Wah wah wahhhhhh. Funny to then see the 00z Euro with an isothermal, 0 or +1C look for everyone away from the coast. One thing that is new re both the UKMET and Euro is that they have really beefed up the amount of nascent polar high into eastern Canada. That is really fairly new, as the other guidance and these two were less anomalous with that feature in the prior runs. It really is something just how much sensible winter weather impacts depend on timing. Take today for example ... if we dug in a closure and rolled a wave up toward the S of LI between today and tomorrow, then tucked into the Bite of NY or not wouldn't matter. You'd be talking a powder keg. DPs are 10 to 15 in this fresh polar air arriving, and if it were not for the fact that all guidance take this current air mass, and the current contributing high and move it blithely E ... it really is fortuitous to those that may not want the winter weather that this timing is what it is. But ... for those that want holiday glee ... the race of the UKMET/Euro in building some cold supply surface high N, might be interesting to see if that holds in this morning's run due out shortly. That said, I don't think the GGEM run can happen. That model has a warm bias for meridional flows, where it punches warm sectors too far N, routinely. I don't know if that is even written formally/noted in any NCEP logs, but I have personally noticed that among it's myriad of other reasons to not trust it, that particular one is glaring as an on-going suspect. Even the CANADOGAP model...that odd-ball idea of "DGEXing" the Canadian with the NOGAPs, has more compressed 850mb T's, with far less latitude placement of warm air as the deep layer vortex is closing off. I wonder what the thinking was for combining those models. The Canadian has a whopper meridional (N-S) flow bias beyond ... Day 3 or so, and the NOGAPs is opposite in how it stretches the flow too flat (W-E) in that same time. Please tell me "they" weren't thinking combining the two bias' would cancel one another out? That's ...laughable if so; it would be like a little kid that's over salted their meal, so they add a bunch of sugar... yuck. Anyway, as others have noted (or implied over the last couple of days of consternation..) that path of least regret is probably some sort of blend, and that would mean eastern NY/Berk' elevations up through the elevations of CNE/NNE for winter impact. Lower els in those areas being a wild-card. That means a lot of cold rain for SNE. That's all "as is" tho, and still not etched in stone. One thing I would caution is that the Euro has sensational verification scores inside D4, and since the lions share of this things development leads up to that, it should get difficult to go against. It's like you start with a Euro canvas and then tint it with the others, and I would say to consider that even more should this run this morning come out with that same sort of isothermal blue bomb look. By the way, with the now inclusion of the Euro/UKMET better polar high N of Maine, the analog idea of 1992 improves some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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