Winter 2014-15 Banter Thread

[REDMK6GLI]

lol relax man dynamic cooling will take care of this. We got a trend going on, the storm is showing more snow than yesterday. Let's see where we can go with this.

The term dynamic cooling is being used WAYYY too loosely here. You kind of make it sound its gonna cover up all sins of poor track and antecedent airmass. Unles extreme wholesale changes occur outside of CNJ,LHV your not gonna see accumulating snows out of this storm. CPA, CNY up to the mountains of NE/NNE may be measuring snows in yard stick form however. Our story will be rain amount and me on LI possible tropical storm force winds/gusts

[TonyLovesSnow]

The term dynamic cooling is being used WAYYY too loosely here. You kind of make it sound its gonna cover up all sins of poor track and antecedent airmass. Unles extreme wholesale changes occur outside of CNJ,LHV your not gonna see accumulating snows out of this storm. CPA, CNY up to the mountains of NE/NNE may be measuring snows in yard stick form however. Our story will be rain amount and me on LI possible tropical storm force winds/gusts

dude just cause Long Island is mostly getting rain my snow map showed rain for you even 3 days ago. Btw didn't appreciate how people made fun of it and eventually deleted it. Don't be mad cause I'm getting snow and your not I'm jk the bust potential is there now I'm going back to sleep I just wanted to see the 6z runs

[uncle W]

There are a couple of obs in the "meteorological obs and discussion" thread...guess not to many people have rain gages.

if it was snow the sight would be over loaded and crash...rain this time of year is depressing...It's hard to post about depressing subjects...when i was young it was worse...I've lived through many depressing Decembers...There is some hope for the last ten days but that remains to be seen...

[Cfa]

Meteorological winter is 8% complete. Counting down the days until the solstice, and then spring.

[Allsnow]

Is tonylovessnow still confident with his map?

[Stormlover74]

Is tonylovessnow still confident with his map?

LOL he might have to tweak it a tad

[WintersGrasp]

NYC could see 15-23" if it gets colder. If it doesn't, maybe only 0-1". We will have to see

[REDMK6GLI]

NYC could see 15-23" if it gets colder. If it doesn't, maybe only 0-1". We will have to see

THAT is a TonyLovesSnow type map right there brother!

It wasnt his map was wrong which it was BUT it just premature. even in almost layup type storms anything outside 72-96 hours a snow map should not be made nor even allowed to be honest

[WintersGrasp]

THAT is a TonyLovesSnow type map right there brother!

It wasnt his map was wrong which it was BUT it just premature. even in almost layup type storms anything outside 72-96 hours a snow map should not be made nor even allowed to be honest

Lol and actually even the pro maps (upton/mount holly for example) change to such extremes DURING a the storm itself, let alone days before it. Also, people usually take them too literally. If they see their area in the 6-12" part of the map, 12" is usually expected so that if 4 or 5" falls, it's considered a big "bust", when really it's just that the original idea did not come to fruition.

But in all seriousness, I think this storm is looking more and more like one that will dump a couple inches of rain on us pretty quickly, then turn to showery rains with breezy conditions.....Not a 2,3,4,5 day system like some models showed. As far as snow, it seems to be one for those FAR inland, not the "usual NW suburbs". Hey, at least we won't feel like we just missed something though! So, no snow for anyone in our areas except for me of course. My location is part of a unique microclimate. At nearly 200 feet above sea level, I have the elevation as well as the proximity to the Atlantic

[Rjay]

BxEngine...get your PM's fixed!

[forkyfork]

friends don't let friends look at the NAM

[REDMK6GLI]

friends don't let friends look at the NAM

TROOF! You can put it down there with the CRAS & NAVGEM. The Terrible Trio

[IsentropicLift]

TROOF! You can put it down there with the CRAS & NAVGEM. The Terrible Trio

The cras takes the surface low into the DC area

[Juliancolton]

This will likely end up as one of my top ten storms of all time.

[forkyfork]

friends don't let friends look at the NAM

one of the worst models, even at 24 hours

https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html

[Stormlover74]

Still waiting for Tony's map

[BxEngine]

BxEngine...get your PM's fixed!

Fixed yo

[REDMK6GLI]

Still waiting for Tony's map

Me too. Kinda dissapointed a revised one wasnt released. Snow map version 2

[NEG NAO]

NYC could see 15-23" if it gets colder. If it doesn't, maybe only 0-1". We will have to see  

 

[Stormlover74]

Me too. Kinda dissapointed a revised one wasnt released. Snow map version 2

I mean will I be able to leave the house? Do I need bread and milk?

[Stormlover74]

Pssst it was a joke

[WintersGrasp]

Final call.....Big changes.....Models have shifted east and stuff. Today was cold and there was snow on the jersey coast, so.....here is a revised, slightly more detailed map. Below are specifics :

A) Rain except for areas that got snowed on today. If you received 1/4+ today, expect 1-3" from the coming storm

B.) Lots of rain, then 2-4"

C) Area where the best dynamics will come in to play. Close to the area of low pressure, plus the wind increase when walking between buildings will usher in colder temperatures. Expect 15-23" wet snow (as I mentioned could happen above)

D) Western portions of this area, the "NW suburbs" will see 16-24" (a bit more than the NYC area) and slightly more if you live on a street that is elevated an additional 20-30 feet. Eastern portions over Long Island and SE CT, expect nothing.

E) All snow. 17-25"

F) 18-26"

G) I know it is an American weather forum, but I'll include this area of Canadian territory anyway.....Either 19-27" or nothing if the storm pulls further east.

[Blizzardo]

I was going to put this in the storm thread. Change some names, add a few things but the song remains the same! Some things will never change. LOL

Here's a brief, revised guide to how a normal winter's day will go in this subforum. If anybody else has any suggestions or additions, feel free to add them.

_________________________

7:00am: A-L-E-X and 40/70 Benchmark are still up posting about the snowstorms of the 1950's and talking about how terrible the 80's were for snow.

8:00am: People are still posting about last nights 00z models which were great...going over intricate details about soundings and snow growth on a storm that is 96 hours out.

8:10am: ChrisL makes a post about 1996 upper level cut off low and Cold Core Barotropic Lows.

8:15am: Somebody posts this day in weather history and nobody responds.

8:35am: Algreek posts the SREF's 10 minutes before anybody else can view them. He says they nudged northwest with the precip line. Says "SREF's drop .40 in NYC".

8:36am: bmc10 calls me 49 times. I am now awake and well aware that the SREF's have moved northwest by 5 miles.

8:45am: NAM starts. Noreaster85 posts about how the NAM is already much sharper with the trough over the midwest.

8:46am: I look at the NAM. It is literally the same down to every intricate detail.

9:20am: NAM is out to hour 12.

9:21am: metfan posts about how the overnight GGEM Ensemble spaghetti plots were really good.

9:22am: Metfan4life posts the 00z Etheopian model, says it's a big hit.

9:23am: I now need a neck brace from trying to view the map, which is upside down and spinning in circles.

9:24am: Sundog and algreek start posting NAM maps at the same exact time. I again start wondering if they are the same person.

9:26am: NAM now looks significantly worse. Everything is de-amplified. It has a twelve 960mb lows on an area of thunderstorms in Florida.

9:27am: baroclinic_instability says NAM is suffering from convective feedback and that it can't handle non-linear cyclogenesis.

9:30am: NAM now shows 0.05" QPF for NYC. I post it.

9:32am: algreek says NAM is actually 0.07" QPF for NYC and posts exact twisterdata amounts to back it up.

9:40am: NZucker says the NAM has more QPF for his region because of his elevation and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

9:50am: A lull period. People analyze NAM soundings even though they don't show any precip.

10:00am: tmagan posts the RGEM graphics which are also a huge whiff.

10:15am: Somebody posts the NAM clown maps which show 9" for the middle of the ocean.

10:30am: GFS starts

10:32am: GFS immediately looks worse. People start panicking.

10:35am: GFS is out to hour 60. Tombo has made 50 posts in the thread already with intricate QPF details for every reporting station north of the Mason Dixon line. I start wondering if he is a robot.

10:38am: GFS is now out to sea.

10:39am: GFS shows precip over our area in response to the upper level low. Metfan posts about it.

10:39:30am: NZucker says the GFS has more QPF for his region because of his elevation and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

10:40am: SACRUS posts every radar and satellite image imaginable.

11:00am: HPC releases their morning discussion. They say that the storm is going to come inland. Nobody knows what is going on.

11:25am: GFS shows a HECS at hour 240. Metfan posts large images of all four panels. I want to fork my eyes out.

11:45am: GGEM is now running.

11:50am: tombo and others begin posting the 3505 x 2050 pixel black and white maps of the GGEM. I still can't begin to make out what it's saying.

11:55am: atownwxwatcher says the NOGAPS is inland and warns everybody that it is a good model and we should be careful. Also says it's ensembles are inland too.

12:00pm: Ukie is out to hour 72. Looks like the GFS. Nobody knows what it actually shows though, because it only runs at 6, 12, and 72 hours and shows no precip data.

12:15pm: GGEM now shows a 957mb low over Cleveland with +12 850 temperatures over NYC.

12:15:30am: NZucker says the GGEM is colder for his region because of his elevation (401 feet) and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

12:16pm: ace says that this solution is viable.

12:16pm: NorEaster27 says 1-3 inches is likely on the front end and then a transition to rain.

12:18pm: Somebody comes in and posts that that was the old run of the GGEM and the new run actually shows 200mm of snow for PHL and NYC.

12:19pm: Everybody is insanely happy.

12:20pm: algreek and sundog tell that poster to clear their cache and the new run is actually over Cleveland.

12:21pm: Everybody is pissed.

12:22pm: Noreaster27 says 1-3 inches is likely.

12:30pm: Accuweather weenie hour. Millions of young kids start posting terrible analysis and models with awful graphics that nobody can understand. There are also 500 posts talking about Henry M.s forecast and JB's big dog winter weather discussion.

12:45pm: Tombo says Euro has initialized.

12:46pm: People are already asking how much QPF euro gives them.

12:48pm: Metfan posts GFS ensembles which show no surface reflection.

12:50pm: Euro is out to hour 12 and looks terrible.

12:55pm: Euro is going east. Tombo again posts intricate QPF data for every station on the east coast.

1:05pm: Tombo says that the Euro has the storm just barely out to sea.

1:07pm: People say it's still good because it's a graze and "that's where we want to be at this range".

1:08pm: That one guy from Baltimore comes in and asks how much QPF it gives baltimore.

1:10pm: Tombo spends the next hour of his life posting QPF data for everybody.

1:30pm: Another accuweather weenie hour begins. With no models for the next few hours, most people don't even bother posting.

2:30pm: Euro ensembles are posted. Shockingly, they look exactly like the Operational.

2:35pm: Algreek again posts the SREFs 10 minutes earlier than everybody else. Says they moved south and east.

2:45pm: Everybody else sees the SREFs and says they got a little worse.

2:50pm: TheTrials says we should wait for the individuals because the ETA members always skew the mean

2:55pm: NAM is running.

2:57pm: Eduggs says this storm is boring because it isn't a 970mb bomb off the NJ Coast. I get into a 30 minute argument with him.

3:10pm: NAM is out to hour 6.

3:15pm: NAM looks more amplified.

3:20pm: Anal log 96 makes some post about DT and how he sucks which immediately gets deleted.

3:25pm: NAM is going nuts. Has a huge bomb off the coast.

3:26pm: Twelve people post mother of god images.

3:27pm: Everybody posts the same image from different sources (NCEP, PSU, etc).

3:28pm: NAM shows an inverted trough developing over the coastal low and gives NYC 3.5" QPF.

3:30pm: jm1220 says this could be a historic storm for Long Island.

3:35pm: Tombo says look at 925mb warm layer. It shows sleet for everybody.

3:40pm: tmagan posts the 18z RGEM which now shows tons of QPF as rain in NYC. Everybody ignores it because it's bad.

3:50pm: Everybody posts soundings and posts their opinion on what the soundings say, most of them are wrong.

3:52pm: The "dynamic cooling" talk begins. I log off.

4:30pm: The thread is growing at 100 posts per minute. Yhbrooklyn and the rest of the NYC mods are ready to commit themselves into a nursing home.

4:35pm: GFS is out. Everybody says they think it looks more amplified.

4:45pm: GFS is still out to sea by 300 miles.

5:50pm: Mulen posts a new thread talking about how this is a great winter and nyc will get lots of snow cya.

5:52pm: CAT5ANDREW makes a thread about the great white clipper of 1551.

5:54pm: Uptons discussion is out. They say the storm might go out to sea but might come inland. Might be rain,might be snow. Might be warm, might be cold. Might issue watches, might not.

5:56pm: Metfan posts the Upton snowfall map 10 times.

6:00pm: Awful weenie hour. With no models until 8:45, the next two and a half hours are spent analyzing old model runs and looking at data which is completely irrelevant.

6:30pm: Metfan again posts the Etheopian model. I refrain from clicking on it due to my prior neck injury.

8:35pm: Algreek and sundog post the SREF's. They have nudged northwest again.

8:45pm: NAM starts.

9:50pm: 12z Ukie is still out to hour 72.

9:15pm: NAM is out to hour 6.

9:20pm: NAM is going south and east again. Has 15 960mb lows on a line of convection over Tampa, FL.

9:25pm: Everybody says it's convective feedback..even though nobody truly knows what that is.

9:25:30am: NZucker says the NAM has more QPF for his region because of his elevation (401 feet) and that the surface low track means it's a snowstorm regardless of what the model shows.

9:30pm: Millions of posters say that the NAM is an outlier because the SREF's went north and west.

10:00pm: tmagan posts 00z RGEM which is out to sea. Says it is the best model.

10:15pm: atownwxwatcher says the NOGAPS is now out to sea. But we have been warned because it was inland for one run. That means everything is going to trend northwest.

10:30pm: GFS has started

10:40pm: Everybody is posting about how the GFS is better aloft.

10:42pm: GFS is still out to sea by 300 miles.

10:45pm: Algreek posts the individual SREFs which show 7 inland runners and 7 out to sea but the mean shows a hit. I roll my eyes.

10:50pm: Allsnow makes a post about his plowing company.

11:00pm: People start analyzing the trends over the past few runs of the GFS. Say it's looking better aloft.

11:15pm: GFS ensembles look like the SREF but with more QPF. Some poster from PA who was fringed says never to trust them.

11:30pm: Tombo posts individual GFS ensembles. Like the srefs, a bunch are inland and a bunch are out to sea.

11:45pm: GGEM has started. I'm still trying to read the black and white maps from the 12z run.

11:50pm: SACRUS posts the maps this time, at a larger resolution of 4040 x 5002 pixels.

11:52pm: Somebody posts a GGEM image which shows a huge hit.

11:53pm: Tombo tells that person to clear their cache. The GGEM is actually out to sea.

11:54pm: Ace is somehow fighting with somebody over something stupid.

11:55pm: I still can't read the black and white maps.

12:00am: GGEM precipitation type maps are out, and it is out to sea.

12:15am: Board begins to settle down a bit as people start going to bed.

12:45am: Tombo says the Euro has initialized.

12:50am: Tombo posts QPF data for everybody on the east coast through 24 hours.

1:00am: Euro is coming northwest. Looks great. I post the same thing 12 times about how it's more amplified with heights on the east coast.

1:05am: Euro is now a bit hit. Tombo posts exact QPF amounts for everybody for every 6 hour increment. Somehow, somebody finds a station he didn't include, and asks him for it.

1:05am: simpsonsbuff texts me and asks me the Euro QPF data for KLEB in New Hampshire.

1:06am: Everybody that is still up is wired over the Euro run.

1:07am: uofmiami posts the huge Plymouth State Euro maps.

1:30am: Everybody is still analyzing the Euro.

1:35am: 40/70 Benchmark comes into our subforum to talk about how epic this winter is and how the EURO is correct. He uses some big vocabulary to make it sound dramatic.

2:00am: A-L-E-X is still up talking about Islip's daily climatology. I start wondering if he ever sleeps.

2:15am: NorEaster27 says 1 to 3 inches likely.

2:17am: NZucker starts talking about how high latitude blocking is good on the Euro and since he has elevation he should do well in this event.

2:20am: I go into the SNE forum. All i see is and , surrounded by insightful posts from ORH_wxman and MEkster

2:45am: 03z SREF's are out, and they are out to sea by a wide margin.

2:46am: DxSnow53 calls me angrily.

2:55am: 06z NAM is out to sea by 600 miles. Nobody even cares anymore.

3:30am: A-L-E-X is still talking about snowstorms in the 1980's and their relevance to this winter.

3:30am: HM makes a post in the main forum about global angular momentum.

[NycStormChaser]

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1418084451.917914.jpg

Final call.....Big changes.....Models have shifted east and stuff. Today was cold and there was snow on the jersey coast, so.....here is a revised, slightly more detailed map. Below are specifics :

A) Rain except for areas that got snowed on today. If you received 1/4+ today, expect 1-3" from the coming storm

B.) Lots of rain, then 2-4"

C) Area where the best dynamics will come in to play. Close to the area of low pressure, plus the wind increase when walking between buildings will usher in colder temperatures. Expect 15-23" wet snow (as I mentioned could happen above)

D) Western portions of this area, the "NW suburbs" will see 16-24" (a bit more than the NYC area) and slightly more if you live on a street that is elevated an additional 20-30 feet. Eastern portions over Long Island and SE CT, expect nothing.

E) All snow. 17-25"

F) 18-26"

G) I know it is an American weather forum, but I'll include this area of Canadian territory anyway.....Either 19-27" or nothing if the storm pulls further east.

Now you are just being a troll. I know you

Cannot be serious with this.

[NYY_2]

Now you are just being a troll. I know you

Cannot be serious with this.

i would assume its a joke

[Juliancolton]

Now you are just being a troll. I know you

Cannot be serious with this.

Really? You sure?

[WintersGrasp]

Hah.....the classic "dry slot sarcastic happy face"

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

Question of the day is why this forum is not in storm mode for this event. ???? One of the most significant storms of the year !!! Also most of the pinned threads have become unreadable again because of individuals who don't know how to follow directions and post banter in them or a forum hog with 22 % of the posts in one thread out of over 600 posts.......

[NEG NAO]

I think he is related to you