NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Agree you do need to update the this - and replace them with the current cast of characters posting here........ I was going to put this in the storm thread. Change some names, add a few things but the song remains the same! Some things will never change. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Is this storm going to have this number of busts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 So far the highest snow totals with this storm seem to be from LI. That's a little ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 So far the highest snow totals with this storm seem to be from LI. That's a little ironic. And models are slowly shifting the precip NE for tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You don't need snow to have an exciting weather event. Big snowstorms are typically hard to come by in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Pssst it was a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You don't need snow to have an exciting weather event. Big snowstorms are typically hard to come by in this area. Yeah, I'm usually the first one to recognize that. I'm just having a hard time seeing this as anything other than an 8-hour rainstorm with lingering flurries... the oceanic low on March 26 of this year was far more interesting imo, and that was hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yeah, I'm usually the first one to recognize that. I'm just having a hard time seeing this as anything other than an 8-hour rainstorm with lingering flurries... the oceanic low on March 26 of this year was far more interesting imo, and that was hundreds of miles offshore. Well this storm isn't over yet and the Euro ensembles actually look somewhat promising for tomorrow so we shall see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well, I will say this and I'm sure many can agree. If we were not on a weather forum following this storm and it's potential, this really would be nothing more than a very rainy morning and afternoon with lingering showers and snow showers in some far NW suburbs. It is the fact that we are weather hobbyists and follow these storms much more intensely than the average person that makes this seem like something much bigger, when in reality, to most this really is just another rainy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 What model is this? I know it's an interactive radar available on some of the news stations. View the futurecast sky conditions and snowfall. It looks highly inaccurate. Is this the RPM model or some other model that this uses? Thanks... http://www.wpxi.com/s/weather/interactive-radar/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 For sh*ts and giggles, take a look at the 06z GFS. Not for the faint of heart. It shows a massive cutter on the 25th. Talk about your blue xmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 you know its bad when we're excited about flurries.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 For sh*ts and giggles, take a look at the 06z GFS. Not for the faint of heart. It shows a massive cutter on the 25th. Talk about your blue xmas! Why are you looking at the 372hr GFS? it's literally not worth the paper it's written on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Why are you looking at the 372hr GFS? it's literally not worth the paper it's written on. why don't you chill out he said for sh*ts and giggles he wasn't taking it seriously...........but I am sure if it showed a HECS you might have or some other characters in here - face it as of right now - there are no serious indications of a significant pattern change before the 25th that will produce a return to the type of pattern we were seeing in November - of course that could change in the next few days the ( Euro had hints of it at 0Z) just not seeing it on any modeling right now so its not set in stone so don't go attacking this post..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 why don't you chill out he said for sh*ts and giggles he wasn't taking it seriously...........but I am sure if it showed a HECS you might have or some other characters in here - face it as of right now - there are no serious indications of a significant pattern change before the 25th that will produce a return to the type of pattern we were seeing in November - of course that could change in the next few days the ( Euro had hints of it at 0Z) just not seeing it on any modeling right now so its not set in stone so don't go attacking this post..... Because he wasn't joking around. It's the same negative crap over and over again from the same people. It's December 10th and people are jumping off buildings because it rained yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Because he wasn't joking around. It's the same negative crap over and over again from the same people. It's December 10th and people are jumping off buildings because it rained yesterday. Its banter. If people can post a blizzard 287 hours out why not a lakes cutter? Everyone's so sensitive. I'm saying no snow til January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Its banter. If people can post a blizzard 287 hours out why not a lakes cutter? Everyone's so sensitive. I'm saying no snow til January If we go this month without any snow then the chance of below average snowfall increases significantly. We've had close calls with these storms thus far and if we had the NAO we probably would've already had a decent snow event or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Its banter. If people can post a blizzard 287 hours out why not a lakes cutter? Everyone's so sensitive. I'm saying no snow til January It's not what the model shows but the fact that it's even being mentioned, and in a pattern where the models have been struggling inside of 24 hours let alone two weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 If we go this month without any snow then the chance of below average snowfall increases significantly. We've had close calls with these storms thus far and if we had the NAO we probably would've already had a decent snow event or two. Relax, it's December 10th. We have 21 days to go until January. It's nearly impossible to predict what might happen between now and then. All you need is one semi decent storm to put us at average or above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 If we go this month without any snow then the chance of below average snowfall increases significantly. We've had close calls with these storms thus far and if we had the NAO we probably would've already had a decent snow event or two. I disagree. This winter will most likely ramp up in mid January but most won't be around to see it because they'll have given up way before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Relax, it's December 10th. We have 21 days to go until January. It's nearly impossible to predict what might happen between now and then. All you need is one semi decent storm to put us at average or above average. But nutley is not known for his negativity. If he was posting the same thing over and over then I'd be upset too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Because he wasn't joking around. It's the same negative crap over and over again from the same people. It's December 10th and people are jumping off buildings because it rained yesterday. I was only kidding my friend, don"t fret. On a serious note, I"m still fairly confident of a step down towards a more winter like pattern starting around the 20th, with the pattern fully locking in be the new year. That's when the fun really begins. I already stated on another weatherboard that if we can get a -NAO established, we can make a run at 1996. As far as anyone out there stressing out about the long range models, don't look at the OP models this far out. Follow the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I disagree. This winter will most likely ramp up in mid January but most won't be around to see it because they'll have given up way before I'm just speaking in terms of climo. This winter is still uncertain but do believe it'll ramp up later so these stats may not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I was only kidding my friend, don"t fret. On a serious note, I"m still fairly confident of a step down towards a more winter like pattern starting around the 20th, with the pattern fully locking in be the new year. That's when the fun really begins. I already stated on another weatherboard that if we can get a _NAO established, we can make a run at 1996. As far as anyone out there stressing out the long range models, don't look at the OP models this far out. Follow the ensembles. Then my apologies for grouping you in with the debbie downers. You're going to be hard pressed to find any year that featured wall to wall cold and snow. Even the coldest Winters have had mild periods and even the snowiest winters have had big cutters and dry periods. The key is getting a favorable pattern in place and then letting the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm just speaking in terms of climo. This winter is still uncertain but do believe it'll ramp up later so these stats may not matter. I was in State College for their snowiest winter ever..110" in 93-94. We had 4" on Halloween and nothing until around Dec 21, then 100" over the next 3 months where it snowed literally every 3-5 days. I realize that's not NYC but one would think there must have been tons of snow from November to April but really it was that 3 month stretch btw even that winter saw a break. We hit 70 in the 3rd week of February and most of the snowpack melted. less than 2 weeks later we had a 32" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm just speaking in terms of climo. This winter is still uncertain but do believe it'll ramp up later so these stats may not matter. Aren't El Nino winters typically back loaded in terms of snowfall? My guess is that we may need to wait until mid-late January, perhaps even a bit longer if you're looking for a KU type event on the coast. At this point we can be thankful that the southern jet has been so active and we have had a train of storm systems to work with. It's certainly possible that we're able to thread the needle and get something significant before the overall pattern becomes more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 And I know that some would say that a snowless December is a bad sign for the rest of the Winter, but the way I see it, no pattern is going to persist forever. So would you rather have things favorable now and less favorable during the heart of Winter? Or can we take what we can get now and when things eventually flip clean up later in the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 That is impressive and theoretically you could lock in a really good snow pattern for a few weeks and get 30-40" within a month or less kinda like 10/11. However those winters are usually the exception rather than the rule. I'm never going to put all my eggs in one basket and hope a 3-4 week period or so develops that delivers all our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 That is impressive and theoretically you could lock in a really good snow pattern for a few weeks and get 30-40" within a month or less kinda like 10/11. However those winters are usually the exception rather than the rule. I'm never going to put all my eggs in one basket and hope a 3-4 week period or so develops that delivers all our snow. Actually most good winters have periods that like. 93-94 here was mostly 6 weeks, from 12/30 to 2/12. 04-05 was 1/22 to 3/1 02-03 was December but very little snow and no storms until February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Why are any of you worrying about Dec snow totals on the 10th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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