December Med/Long Range Disco

[winterymix]

I agree with the BobChill idea of tiny events at the tail end of cold front passages.

The GFS ensemble is bleak and boring for snow lovers out to and beyond 300 hours.

This looks like a tedious warm zonal Pacific jet; a craptastic pattern.

Climatological experience suggests a crummy December until the last week of the month

when we may get some mixed events.  If so, the hope will be for some glorious exciting

events in January.  Perhaps this will be a winter with typical torch third week of January

after some nice snow events and then more good stuff when the pattern reloads for

early February.  Lot of work to do to flip this pattern to something glorious.

 

 

 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

The GFS ensemble is bleak and boring for snow lovers out to and beyond 300 hours.

This looks like a combo of SE ridge and warm zonal Pacific jet; a craptastic pattern.

Climatological experience suggests a crummy December until the last week of the month

when we may get some mixed events.  If so, the hope will be for some glorious exciting

events in January.  Perhaps this will be a winter with typical torch third week of January

after some nice snow events and then more good stuff when the pattern reloads for

early February.

 

z500ensmn2012080512_vt300.gif

yeah kinda like last year, we had a lull in action in december then it picked up again for a bit in jan then took off in feb and march

[Yeoman]

I'd rather have my snow in Dec and Jan when it has a better chance of sticking around for more than 36 hours

[winterymix]

yeah kinda like last year, we had a lull in action in december then it picked up again for a bit in jan then took off in feb and march

At first, I posted an old ensemble and went back for something current.  It does suggest a weak attempt at a west coast ridge and a weak attempt at getting some cooling into the east but the overall trend is zonal rather than meridional.  Anyone think we can get into the middle 60s for a day or three during December?

[Ian]

I'd rather have my snow in Dec and Jan when it has a better chance of sticking around for more than 36 hours

Plus punting two weeks of winter is great any part of winter.

[andyhb]

Plus punting two weeks of winter is great any part of winter.

 

Severe weenies unite!

[Bob Chill]

The pattern we just had looked a heck of a lot better than anything showing on op and ens guidance going forward. The +pna look (if it verifies)is good for having some cold at times but in conjunction with low heights over Greenland means snow is probably unlikely. Maybe north of here but we'll probably have a though time. It would be a timing/threading in fast flow.

That kind of pattern isn't good during any month of djf. I don't like punting any period of djf. Our winter window is only 12 weeks. Losing 2 sucks no matter which way you slice it. But we do it well here so it is what it is.

If the east goes aoa on Dec temps, the extreme temp calls are in trouble. -5 or lower for both j&f would be quite a feat. But we have a long ways to go before worrying about that.

[CAPE]

Didn't we have some mega poleward heat flux episode that was supposed to induce a SSW event that would cause PV shrinkage? Masco had something on his blog about 10 days ago saying the PV was going to split per major warming at 30-50 mb forecasted by the Euro. We had the near record Snow advance/extent through October, so based on Cohen's progression we should be seeing some effect on the AO in the coming weeks.

[mitchnick]

Didn't we have some mega poleward heat flux episode that was supposed to induce a SSW event that would cause PV shrinkage? Masco had something on his blog about 10 days ago saying the PV was going to split per major warming at 30-50 mb forecasted by the Euro. We had the near record Snow advance/extent through October, so based on Cohen's progression we should be seeing some effect on the AO in the coming weeks.

theory vs. realty.....maybe it works and maybe it doesn't

[aldie 22]

I'm sensing some shrinkage in a few of you

[AvantHiatus]

The pattern we just had looked a heck of a lot better than anything showing on op and ens guidance going forward. The +pna look (if it verifies)is good for having some cold at times but in conjunction with low heights over Greenland means snow is probably unlikely. Maybe north of here but we'll probably have a though time. It would be a timing/threading in fast flow.

That kind of pattern isn't good during any month of djf. I don't like punting any period of djf. Our winter window is only 12 weeks. Losing 2 sucks no matter which way you slice it. But we do it well here so it is what it is.

If the east goes aoa on Dec temps, the extreme temp calls are in trouble. -5 or lower for both j&f would be quite a feat. But we have a long ways to go before worrying about that.

Anyone who went that cold deserves to bust hard, that is just pure wishcasting. Mabye in a perfect world + full tilt of the polar vortex.

[Wonderdog]

Long range guidance can change overnight. That said, it doesn't mean it will (obvious). But the track record of long range guidance the past two or so months is not very good, temperature wise.

[Bob Chill]

I'm sensing some shrinkage in a few of you

The euro d11-15 mean 850 temp anomaly plot says the snowpack in all of north America will ve shrinking. Gefs mostly agrees. Canada may catch fire

[CAPE]

theory vs. realty.....maybe it works and maybe it doesn't

lol I know. I was being a tad facetious whilst also providing some hope to calm potential weenie mass panic and winter cancels because the advertised upcoming pattern looks less than great. Its all subject to change beyond about a week anyway.

[SnowGoose69]

Didn't we have some mega poleward heat flux episode that was supposed to induce a SSW event that would cause PV shrinkage? Masco had something on his blog about 10 days ago saying the PV was going to split per major warming at 30-50 mb forecasted by the Euro. We had the near record Snow advance/extent through October, so based on Cohen's progression we should be seeing some effect on the AO in the coming weeks.

 

The AO I think is going to go negative again shortly, it won't be very negative but will likely between 0 and -1.  The bigger surprise to me has been how tough its been to get the NAO negative, SST patterns in the NATL right now argue we should be solidly in a -NAO

[CAPE]

The AO I think is going to go negative again shortly, it won't be very negative but will likely between 0 and -1.  The bigger surprise to me has been how tough its been to get the NAO negative, SST patterns in the NATL right now argue we should be solidly in a -NAO

Yeah hopefully as the pattern shifts and re shifts in the coming weeks, we get some retrograding- of the Low in Alaska back towards the Aleutians, and the Scandinavian ridge. Last winter was really good but no way we get that lucky again. Been too long since we have had a sustained, meaningful -NAO for the winter months. And for here in the MA its almost essential to get good odds for major snow events.

[dailylurker]

The guys over in the New York sub-forum are talking about a possible typhoon making a curve into the north pacific. Could that possibly effect the overall pattern again?

[Amped]

Canada gets warm in el nino years. Look at 09-10. Euro day 10 looks like it's starting to form a Greenland block. Good news is if December torches, January is usually cold.

[mitchnick]

The guys over in the New York sub-forum are talking about a possible typhoon making a curve into the north pacific. Could that possibly effect the overall pattern again?

JB posted that first and so that's who started that "theory." Has worked in the past so we'll see.

[Amped]

The guys over in the New York sub-forum are talking about a possible typhoon making a curve into the north pacific. Could that possibly effect the overall pattern again?

Euro had a 996 low off of the Philippians day 10. Not exactly a supertyphoon. The source was JB, so I don't put too much stock in it.

[CAPE]

Canada gets warm in el nino years. Look at 09-10. Euro day 10 looks like it's starting to form a Greenland block. Good news is if December torches, January is usually cold.

GEM ens mean looks good after the first 10 days of Dec...PNA ridge, Aleutian low, eastern trough, Heights building over N Atlantic.

[CAPE]

Maybe a sneaky little snow/mix event for Mon night into Tuesday. GFS has been hinting at it...a bit more prominent on the 18z run. There is a High to the north, although its on the move. Something to watch.

[Ian]

Maybe a sneaky little snow/mix event for Mon night into Tuesday. GFS has been hinting at it...a bit more prominent on the 18z run. There is a High to the north, although its on the move. Something to watch.

Ha just posted about in other thread.

[dailylurker]

Euro had a 996 low off of the Philippians day 10. Not exactly a supertyphoon. The source was JB, so I don't put too much stock in it.

Ohhh, ok. Then I won't either lol. Thanks

[CAPE]

Ha just posted about in other thread.

lol I wasnt sure where to post it...seemed the other thread was basically all obs. Anway, with all the talk of bad pattern, at least its something.

[HighStakes]

JB posted that first and so that's who started that "theory." Has worked in the past so we'll see.

He thinks if it does recurve that will not only change the pattern back but lock winter into the look he has for the entire season. That seems a bit bold but who knows. He's actually been pretty good on overall long term patterns since the summer of 2013.

 

I think if we can get a nice pattern change mid month and get it to last through the holidays into the first 7-10 days of January that would be perfect. Things then slow somewhat for mid January then really go robust for the first half of February. My gut tells me the best month for the region will be February especially with the late developing nino. If we are going to have a big snow season everything points to February statistically speaking. If this year officially goes down as a nino and there is a major single snowstorm it figures to occur in Feb.

 

BWI has had only two 12 inch plus events in Jan. in the past 48 years. The last one being in 1987. BWI did record 12 inches plus in one event in Jan. in both 1996 and 2000 but those were not nino years. If we up the ante to 20 inch snowfalls we know that BWI has seen 9 in total ( should be 10 but somehow came up 0.5 short at 19.5 in the second blizzard in Feb. 2010 ) Out of those 9 only two were in January and neither of them was an el nino. On the flip side you could say were due for a 20incher in Jan.

[Huffwx]

He thinks if it does recurve that will not only change the pattern back but lock winter into the look he has for the entire season. That seems a bit bold but who knows. He's actually been pretty good on overall long term patterns since the summer of 2013.

 

I think if we can get a nice pattern change mid month and get it to last through the holidays into the first 7-10 days of January that would be perfect. Things then slow somewhat for mid January then really go robust for the first half of February. My gut tells me the best month for the region will be February especially with the late developing nino. If we are going to have a big snow season everything points to February statistically speaking. If this year officially goes down as a nino and there is a major single snowstorm it figures to occur in Feb.

 

BWI has had only two 12 inch plus events in Jan. in the past 48 years. The last one being in 1987. BWI did record 12 inches plus in one event in Jan. in both 1996 and 2000 but those were not nino years. If we up the ante to 20 inch snowfalls we know that BWI has seen 9 in total ( should be 10 but somehow came up 0.5 short at 19.5 in the second blizzard in Feb. 2010 ) Out of those 9 only two were in January and neither of them was an el nino. On the flip side you could say were due for a 20incher in Jan.

Jan 1996.... How did they do Jan 25 2000... ???

[gymengineer]

Jan 1996.... How did they do Jan 25 2000... ???

14.9". But he meant "BWI has had only two 12 inch plus events in Jan. in the past 48 years during an El Nino" since he pointed out 96 and 00 later on. 

[HighStakes]

Jan 1996.... How did they do Jan 25 2000... ???

I believe around 15.

[HighStakes]

14.9". But he meant "BWI has had only two 12 inch plus events in Jan. in the past 48 years during an El Nino" since he pointed out 96 and 00 later on. 

Yes