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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Even though there's no real blocking and fast flow coming up for a while, the pattern looks like it will keep up on our toes. Long lead storms are definitely out the window for tracking, but medium/short lead stuff looks fun.

The second overunning event this week could easily trend colder (6z gfs already shows this). Some split flow is showing up with the pna spike later down the line. The possibility of timing something is definitely there.

I'm totally fine with fast moving weak events. They are more of a staple here than bigger storms anyways. Tons of spread but we may see some interesting looks later this week for early next week.

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Even though there's no real blocking and fast flow coming up for a while, the pattern looks like it will keep up on our toes. Long lead storms are definitely out the window for tracking, but medium/short lead stuff looks fun.

The second overunning event this week could easily trend colder (6z gfs already shows this). Some split flow is showing up with the pna spike later down the line. The possibility of timing something is definitely there.

I'm totally fine with fast moving weak events. They are more of a staple here than bigger storms anyways. Tons of spread but we may see some interesting looks later this week for early next week.

Long track events can be fun but just completely draining. I've said it a million times on here I love me a surprise storm or event! I wonder at what point in 02-03 the models stopped advertising warmth and just said F it!! It's gonna be cold....I'm thinking it was sometime in December

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Long track events can be fun but just completely draining. I've said it a million times on here I love me a surprise storm or event! I wonder at what point in 02-03 the models stopped advertising warmth and just said F it!! It's gonna be cold....I'm thinking it was sometime in December

Were pretty much in a lemon/lemonade pattern. It's nowhere near a good storm pattern so I'll gladly track messy mangled events. At least it's not a shutout se ridge look. If we get the advertised +pna pattern, maybe we can get a vort to slide underneath us.

I have no opinion on the second half of the month. Hope + signs start appearing sooner rather than later. And those + signs better not be the ao/nao

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Were pretty much in a lemon/lemonade pattern. It's nowhere near a good storm pattern so I'll gladly track messy mangled events. At least it's not a shutout se ridge look. If we get the advertised +pna pattern, maybe we can get a vort to slide underneath us.

I have no opinion on the second half of the month. Hope + signs start appearing sooner rather than later. And those + signs better not be the ao/nao

 

 

The MJO is just entering phase 4 which is a warmer than normal one over the CONUS. The next several phases tend to be warmer than normal ones for us.   Having a positive PNA would mitigate that for us but most likely the pattern isn't gonna be a good one for the next 10 days.  No wall to wall torch but probably a tad above normal though we could have brief colder than noromal shot as highs pass to the north (like on Tuesday).  The ensembles differ somehat in the 11-15 day range, the Canadian ensembles actually have us on the cool side while the euro keeps us near normal.  I prefer the latter.  For those hoping for a splitting polar vortex, that might happen but the current state of the vortex is pretty normal.  Cohen's work suggessts we get cold by late December.  

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I personally tossed the first 2-3 weeks of December awhile ago. Good news is the Aleutian Low/Siberian High combo is perfect for assaulting the PV with breakers from below, only now we have a more mature wave field, unlike earlier in November which failed at the wave-2 split attempt (which I think was actually a good thing for January). The analogs I'm looking most closely at (2003-04, 1968-69) bring the SSW at roughly the same stage in TF progression. I think we finally flip the NAO negative in late December and will follow up with a very cold January, but until then I think we're stuck in a zonal-ish +PNA regime and will be relying on sneaky, thread-the-needle type events and short lived polar shots that largely slide east fairly soon after..

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The classic Nino look in the PAC is pretty reassuring, even if the Atlantic sucks right now....certainly a better early season look than we got in the last 2 weak events (2004, 2006)....maybe an indication that the numerics are underestimating nino's effect...we're still similar strength to last week, though there is some hint of a potential spike, and a spike in the PDO too...

 

 

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Matt, we're close to getting right. Ao guidance is still choppy as heck but the + spike showing at times over the last week is looking to fail. Some signs of ridging in the west pushing all the way to n of ak. This would definitely help cut off the pac jet slamming into Canada. -nao seems to keep up its multi-year elusive streak for now.

Mitch, your d8-10 interest has some support. Ec ens looked close enough to the op to keep eyes open. 18z double gfs's also show a massive hp suppressing a storm from cutting and shoving it due east. Not a good storm setup but could support some frozen if the hp/lp do the right dance as everything moves east.

Para gfs is a miller b setup but the primary goes too far north. Lala land but the idea is on the table

At least our "relaxation" isn't boring.

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Matt, we're close to getting right. Ao guidance is still choppy as heck but the + spike showing at times over the last week is looking to fail. Some signs of ridging in the west pushing all the way to n of ak. This would definitely help cut off the pac jet slamming into Canada. -nao seems to keep up its multi-year elusive streak for now.

Mitch, your d8-10 interest has some support. Ec ens looked close enough to the op to keep eyes open. 18z double gfs's also show a massive hp suppressing a storm from cutting and shoving it due east. Not a good storm setup but could support some frozen if the hp/lp do the right dance as everything moves east.

Para gfs is a miller b setup but the primary goes too far north. Lala land but the idea is on the table

At least our "relaxation" isn't boring.

some of us needed to relax after last week    :oldman:

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We often get nothing in "epic" patterns and good storms is supposedly "hostile" patterns. The pieces are important to have in place but so much of the snow around the cities is fluky and based on timing.

I feel like we've been talking about a warmup for a month now and in the mean time it snowed once and we might have two more wintry precip events coming

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I feel like we've been talking about a warmup for a month now and in the mean time it snowed once and we might have two more wintry precip events coming

 

we have a pretty good PAC pattern with a lot of moisture projected in a typical Nino structure, and no southeast ridge, so these occasional shots of cold air have a better chance of being met with precipitation so we will have our chances....if we were in Nina the storm track would be to our west, and we'd pretty much be dry or only see pre-frontal precip....This is better for you than me of course....these borderline events are going to be mitigated by climo, and it is still only November..lol, so I don't expect to record more than a 0.25" here or there if anything until we get a better Atlantic and a more stable pattern....but yeah...+PDO/Nino is pretty sweet isn't it?...Better than our usual warm/wet, cold/dry?....I think we still probably finish the 1st half of December at or above normal, but probably not by much....and who knows about IAD...they are the new north pole..

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Matt, we're close to getting right. Ao guidance is still choppy as heck but the + spike showing at times over the last week is looking to fail. Some signs of ridging in the west pushing all the way to n of ak. This would definitely help cut off the pac jet slamming into Canada. -nao seems to keep up its multi-year elusive streak for now.

Mitch, your d8-10 interest has some support. Ec ens looked close enough to the op to keep eyes open. 18z double gfs's also show a massive hp suppressing a storm from cutting and shoving it due east. Not a good storm setup but could support some frozen if the hp/lp do the right dance as everything moves east.

Para gfs is a miller b setup but the primary goes too far north. Lala land but the idea is on the table

At least our "relaxation" isn't boring.

 

+PDO/Nino is pretty fun....It's been 5 years...we deserve it ;)

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+PDO/Nino is pretty fun....It's been 5 years...we deserve it ;)

I'm pretty rusty to be honest. When I saw the height patterns over Canada on the ensembles last week I assumed strong HP's but not nearly as cold as what is pushing down this week. Not that this week is great or anything but it's encouraging nonetheless

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More of a basin wide or central/east based config now. PDO looks great. 

 

anomnight.12.1.2014.gif

that's my cue!

3.4 up to +1C this week

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 12NOV2014     22.4 0.9     25.8 0.9     27.5 0.8     29.5 0.9 19NOV2014     22.6 0.8     26.0 1.0     27.5 0.9     29.5 0.9 26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
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All guidance is looking about the same down the line. Cool shot possible in the d8-10 range and then pretty bad stuff. Big low height anomalies in the goa/aleutians flooding north america with pacific air. Looks pretty warm tbh and it's not a new idea. 

well, like you or someone else mentioned, all those cold DJF forecasts will be in a little trouble (depending on how far BN they went) if DEC comes in as warm as the CFS2 is showing

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All guidance is looking about the same down the line. Cool shot possible in the d8-10 range and then pretty bad stuff. Big low height anomalies in the goa/aleutians flooding north america with pacific air. Looks pretty warm tbh and it's not a new idea. 

Yeah, it looks pretty awful in the long range.  But, I'm not discouraged given that it seems the models can't get a handle on anything past Day 10 lately (or for the past month).  Remember when we were going to have a major Aleutian ridge for awhile?  How's that looking now?  

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Yeah, it looks pretty awful in the long range.  But, I'm not discouraged given that it seems the models can't get a handle on anything past Day 10 lately (or for the past month).  Remember when we were going to have a major Aleutian ridge for awhile?  How's that looking now?  

 

I'm not discouraged because it's Dec 1st. Our window really doesn't open for another 3 weeks give or take. However, looking at 5 day mean height patterns and cpc analogs, there are some strong similarities to Dec 94, 86, and 06. Those 3 years show up quite a bit right now with CPC analogs and they were all Ninos. The composite is basically what the global ensembles are advertising. 

 

post-2035-0-03032300-1417446264_thumb.gi

 

 

Here's the euro. GEFS looks the same

 

post-2035-0-76811500-1417446358_thumb.gi

 

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I'm not discouraged because it's Dec 1st. Our window really doesn't open for another 3 weeks give or take. However, looking at 5 day mean height patterns and cpc analogs, there are some strong similarities to Dec 94, 86, and 06. Those 3 years show up quite a bit right now with CPC analogs and they were all Ninos. The composite is basically what the global ensembles are advertising. 

 

attachicon.gifcpcanalogs.GIF

 

 

Here's the euro. GEFS looks the same

 

attachicon.gifec5day.GIF

wtf happened to the -AO prediction of Cohen? not lookin' so hot to the detriment of us all unfortunately

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wtf happened to the -AO prediction of Cohen? not lookin' so hot to the detriment of us all unfortunately

He just posted a long article on his website before Thanksgiving and basically said everything is going according to plan.  It usually takes until late December/early January for the October snowfall to disrupt the stratospheric vortex and have that propagate downward into the troposphere.  

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wtf happened to the -AO prediction of Cohen? not lookin' so hot to the detriment of us all unfortunately

 

 

06 was a high extent and high gain in Oct. Doesn't fit the south of 60 method though but there are no smoking guns or absolutes in weather. 

 

Way too early for calling anything a bust.

 

86-87 came on strong in JF. I don't think we'll see anything like a 94-95/06-07 repeat. If we do, it will be the biggest colossal bust in board history. 

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He just posted a long article on his website before Thanksgiving and basically said everything is going according to plan.  It usually takes until late December/early January for the October snowfall to disrupt the stratospheric vortex and have that propagate downward into the troposphere.  

 

 

06 was a high extent and high gain in Oct. Doesn't fit the south of 60 method though but there are no smoking guns or absolutes in weather. 

 

Way too early for calling anything a bust.

well, last year he was "off" on his forecast so I guess I'm more than a little leery to so DEC with a meh AO reading when one considers temps in Decembers for years like 76/77 and 02/03 that had similar Eurasian snow cover expansion in OCT

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It's getting warm up there in the stratosphere.

 

temp10anim.gif

it's gunna' get warmer down here real soon too!!

that said, it's nice top see the warmth building around the Pole but Bob's got me spooked now with those 94/95 and 06/07 analogs that keep showing up

of course, DEC 86 was warm too, and that winter worked out well, but I hate the thought of hanging my hat on 1 year when the odds favor the cr@p analog years 2 to 1

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