CAPE Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 oh c'mon man..your wishcasting a tad here, I have a feeling we are in for an epic winter in a a sense, and by that i mean an epic bust. Go ahead and roll with one run of the op GFS. Epic winter of doom. Lock that in if it makes ya happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 You can rely upon one thing. If you see a post by TeleConnectDuh in this forum, it will be be to tell us how bad everything looks. I'm sure the Philly forum is glad to have him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 6z gfs is mid to upper 40s as far as the eye can see...ripe for a sneaky event here and there....better than upper 50s and 60s if you ax me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 6z gfs is mid to upper 40s as far as the eye can see...ripe for a sneaky event here and there....better than upper 50s and 60s if you ax me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 12z gefs is pretty hideous except for maybe a quick hitting trough/front or 2. Overall nothing encouraging at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 12z gefs is pretty hideous except for maybe a quick hitting trough/front or 2. Overall nothing encouraging at all. Good thing Kay resurrected the Tenman snow lover poetry thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You know there's something wrong with the pattern when there's a 1040hp north of lake ontario, lp to the south, precip in the area, and it's all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 So...... .........how we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You know there's something wrong with the pattern when there's a 1040hp north of lake ontario, lp to the south, precip in the area, and it's all rain. Day 5-6 Euro? As for the GEFS, yeah, they look rough. In the MJO we trust. Real winter will arrive...eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Day 5-6 Euro? As for the GEFS, yeah, they look rough. In the MJO we trust. Real winter will arrive...eventually. yea, d5-6. If you just looked at the calendar and the mslp/precip panels you would immediately think cold powder. But it's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Almost time to bring JI in here and do this winter canceling the right way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 In case anyone else didn't realize this, tropicaltidbits.com has the Euro-ensemble mean (for free!): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 DT pointing out JB's old teleconnection indicator of a big ridge east of the Caspian poking up at Day 10 on the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 In case anyone else didn't realize this, tropicaltidbits.com has the Euro-ensemble mean (for free!): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/ yes..just checked it out...he has some great stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 In case anyone else didn't realize this, tropicaltidbits.com has the Euro-ensemble mean (for free!): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/ Awesome! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 here's a weenie spin on things.... HM said that the reason why we had the cold come in NOV was because the tropical forcing was early OK, so if it was early, then it would have normally come in DEC so if this DEC is warm, it's nothing more than an early JAN thaw therefore, we'll be rocking JAN-MAR because the NINO looks to hold on and then get warmer by several lr models and there you have it...a very, very sick mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 here's a weenie spin on things.... HM said that the reason why we had the cold come in NOV was because the tropical forcing was early OK, so if it was early, then it would have normally come in DEC so if this DEC is warm, it's nothing more than an early JAN thaw therefore, we'll be rocking JAN-MAR because the NINO looks to hold on and then get warmer by several lr models and there you have it...a very, very sick mind You usually don't get 4 months with 10"+ even in good Nino years, or most other years besides 95-96 and last year. 2009-2010 had January and March which weren't great. I think this year it will be December that stinks. As long as we get snow once the pattern is good, it shouldn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 If our December snow average wasn't 3 hours of heavy snow I'd be tempted to punt the month. Last 10 .. probably last 5 seem more hopeful, or into early yr. But it is Dec and we're not in the core of the warm anomaly in the next bit, so accidents can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 If our December snow average wasn't 3 hours of heavy snow I'd be tempted to punt the month. it was 19 minutes before '09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 From WSI on Twitter earlier today...supports the idea that good times are a comin. Weenes stand clear of ledges and bridges for the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 CMC has a big snow next Tuesday. Euro has two interesting storms as well. Guess we can't rule out something popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro really digs the upper low next week and pops a coastal in a nice position. Somehow it produces 850 temps almost to -10C. Looks glorious, although that airmass must be crap. GFS keeps the upper low to our north, however. Euro ensembles are also supportive of the upper low digging well to our south. Something to watch while we're sipping drinks with little umbrellas in them while sitting outside in shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 GFS ens has hints of this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro really digs the upper low next week and pops a coastal in a nice position. Somehow it produces 850 temps almost to -10C. Looks glorious, although that airmass must be crap. GFS keeps the upper low to our north, however. Euro ensembles are also supportive of the upper low digging well to our south. Something to watch while we're sipping drinks with little umbrellas in them while sitting outside in shorts. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_8.png the operational Euro does a 12/26/10 to as us it has precip going to our south and hooks around us to the SE pretty obnoxious to watch actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 the operational Euro does a 12/26/10 to as us it has precip going to our south and hooks around us to the SE pretty obnoxious to watch actually Of course it does. Well, too early for those details. Euro and some other guidance has been pointing at this time frame for a few days already, at least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yea...cmc crushes the i81 corridor . Its been locked in for days . Models seem to be getting colder with this time frame .This week was supposed to be a torch and it has been pretty seasonal. These warm ups have all been lame by the time they arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This week was supposed to be a torch and it has been pretty seasonal. These warm ups have all been lame by the time they arrived. Winter un-cancel? I'm so ready for months of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Of course it does. Well, too early for those details. Euro and some other guidance has been pointing at this time frame for a few days already, at least it's something to track. anytime any model looks like that debacle, my blood boils! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This week was supposed to be a torch and it has been pretty seasonal. These warm ups have all been lame by the time they arrived. I dont remember it ever looking torchy. We did have 2 days in the 60s(one day of 70s for some) and today should be well into the 50s. Seasonal overall though, which was pretty much as advertised by guidance. Problem is too many people are looking for a cold pattern with below average temps, which would be conducive to tracking more than rain and mangled wet flakes. Its early Dec so temps averaging around 50 are pretty typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 No love for the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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