Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 it's gunna' get warmer down here real soon too!! that said, it's nice top see the warmth building around the Pole but Bob's got me spooked now with those 94/95 and 06/07 analogs that keep showing up of course, DEC 86 was warm too, and that winter worked out well, but I hate the thought of hanging my hat on 1 year when the odds favor the cr@p analog years 2 to 1 Nah, don't read too much into it. Every year is different AND 09 is still showing up...but at the bottom of the list..haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 warm during my least productive 2 week climo period of the next 3 1/2 months.....I'll take it....and not surprising...December could still end up ok if we plunge at the end of the month as many are predicting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I'm not discouraged because it's Dec 1st. Our window really doesn't open for another 3 weeks give or take. However, looking at 5 day mean height patterns and cpc analogs, there are some strong similarities to Dec 94, 86, and 06. Those 3 years show up quite a bit right now with CPC analogs and they were all Ninos. The composite is basically what the global ensembles are advertising. cpcanalogs.GIF Here's the euro. GEFS looks the same ec5day.GIF the current map looks way better....no vortex over the EPO region....I'm not concerned about any long term issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 can the CFS2 get any more insistent on what it thinks DEC temps will look like? lol CFS now showing cold January/February with blocking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 the current map looks way better....no vortex over the EPO region....I'm not concerned about any long term issues... I'm not concerned either, Matt. Dec has always been the wildcard and Nino climo is typically a slow start. If we have an anomalous +ao/nao in 3 weeks then things change. Looks like Dec AO will have a hard time hitting -1 on the means based on current guidance but that really doesn't mean much either. The state of the high latitudes during the last 10 days of the month will be telling for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 CFS now showing cold January/February with blocking.... where are you getting your maps because the CFS2 site depicts JAN & FEB like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 where are you getting your maps because the CFS2 site depicts JAN & FEB like this: He must be using the new and improved, correct at least once per year CFSv2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 where are you getting your maps because the CFS2 site depicts JAN & FEB like this: Those are 10 day averages...I'm using dailies...not sure if they are available to the public?......that warmth is all concentrated in the 1st 5 days....once those days drop off it will cool down...February from today has DC at -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Those are 10 day averages...I'm using dailies...not sure if they are available to the public?......that warmth is all concentrated in the 1st 5 days....once those days drop off it will cool down...February from today has DC at -7 I feel I'm being cheated by the government....what should I do?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I feel I'm being cheated by the government....what should I do?? they bounce around day to day...tomorrow could be a torch....they are useless tools... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Everything progressing about as you'd expect for a Nino winter. Recency bias says if we get no Dec 19 2009 winter is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Yeah, it looks pretty awful in the long range. But, I'm not discouraged given that it seems the models can't get a handle on anything past Day 10 lately (or for the past month). This is probably still true, but I'm going to ignore it for just a minute since the GEFS shows a progression that I was kind of hoping it would show. After Day 8, it the 12z GEFS shows the Canada torch that includes us to a great degree as well. But then very late in the run (Days 13-15) it shows what I was kind of hoping it would eventually: the high heights in Canada and the northern CONUS retreat northward and start to look like a west-based -NAO and we get lower heights underneath that. Also shows some ridging over the pole. Of course I'm sure it won't look like this in reality, but maybe this is an early hint at how things will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Wow, that negative anomoly across the npac is massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 This is probably still true, but I'm going to ignore it for just a minute since the GEFS shows a progression that I was kind of hoping it would show. After Day 8, it the 12z GEFS shows the Canada torch that includes us to a great degree as well. But then very late in the run (Days 13-15) it shows what I was kind of hoping it would eventually: the high heights in Canada and the northern CONUS retreat northward and start to look like a west-based -NAO and we get lower heights underneath that. Also shows some ridging over the pole. Of course I'm sure it won't look like this in reality, but maybe this is an early hint at how things will evolve. f384.gif Big time spread in the evolution other than having low heights in the npac. Pretty much as good a lock as you will see at long leads there but awful tough to get a handle on the conus. Some members showing good ridging near the pole and also support what you are describing. At this point, the most important things to root for is no bearing sea vortex and no strengthening +AO. Neither of which seem to be favored. Quite a few members like a cutoff traversing the desert sw and southern tier during d10-15 timeframe. Very nino-like there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I feel I'm being cheated by the government....what should I do?? I feel cheated too assuming they spent more than a dime maintaining this worthless model.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Euro still has some action around Day 8 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Euro still has some action around Day 8 it looks like. Gonna need deets. It's all we've got to look forward to for a while it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Big time spread in the evolution other than having low heights in the npac. Which is why you take the ensemble mean Also, p002 and p003 please. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Euro ens have been trending with higher heights across most of northern russia pushing poleward late in the run. This would prevent an easy transition to a bothersome +AO. Small but decent trend across the board with the 12z. Late in the run it has the lowest heights in the npac centered south of the western aleutians. Definitely not a bad thing. All in all the pattern still stinks for storms but a fairly easy transition to a better pattern if we can get a better alignment in the pac. MUCH better if we get the first real -nao in like 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Weeklies look half decent week 3-4. Ridging in western canada, AN heights all over the pole and greenland (nothing crazy), aleutian low week 3, -EPO week 4. Split flow look with bn heights in the deep south, SE, MA. Temps looks average week 3 and slightly below week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Euro ens have been trending with higher heights across most of northern russia pushing poleward late in the run. This would prevent an easy transition to a bothersome +AO. Small but decent trend across the board with the 12z. Late in the run it has the lowest heights in the npac centered south of the western aleutians. Definitely not a bad thing. All in all the pattern still stinks for storms but a fairly easy transition to a better pattern if we can get a better alignment in the pac. MUCH better if we get the first real -nao in like 40 years. As long as we have ridging out west and no southeast ridge, even with above normal heights over us, it won't be that warm of a pattern in the averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 As long as we have ridging out west and no southeast ridge, even with above normal heights over us, it won't be that warm of a pattern in the averages But not good enough for snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 00z GFS is torch in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 00z GFS is torch in the long range Thankfully verification scores at long leads are similar to winning lotto scratchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Thankfully verification scores at long leads are similar to winning lotto scratchers. Oh no! I won 50 bucks on one yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Thankfully verification scores at long leads are similar to winning lotto scratchers. its throughout the run really. Canada looks to heat up and that could hurt us with the snowpack being melted away up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 its throughout the run really. Canada looks to heat up and that could hurt us with the snowpack being melted away up there. Right where we want it at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Right where we want it at this lead. oh c'mon man..your wishcasting a tad here, I have a feeling we are in for an epic winter in a a sense, and by that i mean an epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 oh c'mon man..your wishcasting a tad here, I have a feeling we are in for an epic winter in a a sense, and by that i mean an epic bust. Not this again. What makes you think all of the forecasts are going to bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 oh c'mon man..your wishcasting a tad here, I have a feeling we are in for an epic winter in a a sense, and by that i mean an epic bust. oh cmon man.. I have a feeling you are a weenie and by that I mean you should go back to your forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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