Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

T-day eve possible SE winter storm (11/26/14)


GaWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 504
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Rays weather and the NWS both used the 3000 foot number. I can promise you I am not going to say nothing because some folks don't like what I'm saying.

As for my wish and hype casting

Comment, it happens on every single storm. Nothing new here.

 

 

Only Rays weather has said that.  A quick google search which I have found to be very useful found this..

 

NWS Greer, SC states:

 

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE

LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...

SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL

INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR

WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT

WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH

ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC

MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING

SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS

THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE

WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL

PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE

REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS

MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE

EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW

DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE

MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND

THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO

BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

 

 

 

They state mountain snow, Asheville is in the mountains...  It is annoying that you try and tailor things to make previous comments look less ignorant.  Goggle is your friend.  This is the last comment I am making on this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's simple really and happens every winter storm, those who live in areas that miss out tend to get testy and angry at those who have a better chance or are already getting snow, and they also want to make it seem like the areas that seem primed for snow will not get as much as the models say and are generally very pessimistic.  On to the storm... the models are trying to trend in the right direction this evening, Asheville has a good shot at 2-4 inches with this track and quickly lowering 850s

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only Rays weather has said that. A quick google search which I have found to be very useful found this..

NWS Greer, SC states:

AT THE SURFACE...ON TUESDAY EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE

LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...

SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SC COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WELL

INLAND AS A DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO DEVELOP NW OF THE LOW.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXTEND AS FAR

WEST AS OUR AREA...LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER MODEST UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION. MODULE THICKNESS VALUES AND VERTICAL PROFILES SUPPORT

WITHER A RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO...WITH RAIN EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE...AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH

ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE NC

MOUNTAINS.

RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING

SURFACE WAVE. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS

THE PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE

WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VERTICAL

PROFILES AND THICKNESS SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE

REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS

MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. ALTHOUGH THE SOME MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE

EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...ROBUST NW

DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOWFALL EAST OF THE

MOUNTAINS. MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEHIND

THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO

BE BELOW ADVISRY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

They state mountain snow, Asheville is in the mountains... It is annoying that you try and tailor things to make previous comments look less ignorant. Goggle is your friend. This is the last comment I am making on this.

Good luck on the storm. I did see a NWS statement mentioning 3000 feet and you already confirmed that Rays weather, pretty much the go to source for mountain weather used 3000 feet.

You are way too testy and need to seriously think about your attitude. I have no skin in the game when it comes to the snow. It really

Doesn't matter if the snow line is 2000-3000-4000. I used 3000 to illustrate my point of elevation driven, taking the number 3000 from a trusted source.

Again good luck, I mean you no harm. Please re read my posts and ask yourself if I meant anyone harm in what I said.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's simple really and happens every winter storm, those who live in areas that miss out tend to get testy and angry at those who have a better chance or are already getting snow, and they also want to make it seem like the areas that seem primed for snow will not get as much as the models say and are generally very pessimistic.  On to the storm... the models are trying to trend in the right direction this evening, Asheville has a good shot at 2-4 inches with this track and quickly lowering 850s

Ok I can't take it, I admit, I'm insanely jealous of everybody else's snow!!! :) It'll never snow here ever again, as long as the Earth is around. Everyone from a 5 mile radius and outward will get dumped on all winter long and be praying for an end, whilst breaking shovel after shovel from the weight of it all. And here I'll be, sulking in a 60 degree hole of could have been model runs, undelivered clown maps, and a new shovel that never gets used. I'll watch in horror as downsloping, warm air advection, and unbearable boundary layers doom the rest of my life. I can't take it... HELP!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok I can't take it, I admit, I'm insanely jealous of everybody else's snow!!! :) It'll never snow here ever again, as long as the Earth is around. Everyone from a 5 mile radius and outward will get dumped on all winter long and be praying for an end, whilst breaking shovel after shovel from the weight of it all. And here I'll be, sulking in a 60 degree hole of could have been model runs, undelivered clown maps, and a new shovel that never gets used. I'll watch in horror as downsloping, warm air advection, and unbearable boundary layers doom the rest of my life. I can't take it... HELP!

 

Welcome to winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does the GFS still look convective feedback....ish?

Is it showing rain outside the mountains , then yes

It's going to be around 60 tomorrow here, more clouds and precip coming in a little sooner, I know we never really had a chance, but we really did have everything working against us, except the storm track!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does the GFS still look convective feedback....ish?

Yes it does. I don' think it is properly modeling the amount of precip under that deformation band. Looks like it fires convecton along the coast and cuts off some transport to inland areas. Could it be on to something? Maybe... Also, looks like this one can be classified as a "zipper low" due to the thermal gradient and they can be tricky in terms of QPF placement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's hard to think the I-77 in corridor through the foothills won't see some snow in the air tomorrow with cold 850's and heavy rates.

 

Even east into the rest of the piedmont the 850s crash below freezing before the heaviest precip end. Anybody have thoughts on the secondary disturbance coming after the main system? 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141125+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very nice map, localyokelweather!  Impressive amounts of detail.

 

I agree, packfan98.  The NAM is printing out some very intense rates.  With rather low temperatures, it seems that some snowflakes should survive the journey down to the surface.

There might be some brief "snow-islands" if you are lucky enough to be under one of those heavy pockets in the deformation band. There again, it will depend on surface temps and how much cold air can be dragged down. Right now, it's not looking too good... that is unless the colder NAM verifies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow I hate having to put together a forecast on this one. Just told all my followers I was very unsure and model temps looked more like rain. Very frustrating event.

WPC gives me about a 1 in 4 chance of accumulating snowfall IMBY. Not too good... As others have mentioned, elevation will be key on this one. I am just over 1000 ft. So, unless the NAM scores a win, I will be watching this one on the webcams. Beech Mtn NC would be the place to go. It's 31 degrees there now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was looking at Sat. and Radar seems that there is a good bit of dry air around. You can see the dry air eating the moisture up in SC. If the skies are clear tonight we might have a bigger drop off in temps than advertised. Im sitting at a Dewpoint of 22 right now hum. 25%.

My DP is 36 hum 44% that's a big difference close as we live?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My DP is 36 hum 44% that's a big difference close as we live?

 

sct.png

Fair

57°F

14°C

  • Humidity25%
  • Wind SpeedNW 5 mph
  • Barometer30.05 in
  • Dewpoint21°F (-6°C)
  • Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 25 Nov 2:35 pm EST

Current conditions at

Mount Airy / Surry County Airport (KMWK)

Lat: 36.46°N Lon: 80.55°W Elev: 1247ft.

 
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...