PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 John , I can`t copy and paste to show what I mean , look at the 500 mb vorticity @ 72 hrs .Does that argue for a little to close for comfort for the coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GFS Para is slightly east of the GFS op but cold like the GFS. Eastern LI has issues but not NYC on the soundings for the GFS. It travels over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 As I said in my earlier post the location of that negative trough set-up wil be key... If it sets up over the lakes the low will ride coast if the trough diggs deeper east and South it will push low further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its November...I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Teleconnect I say this with empathy and I don't post much but follow the board religiously please stop posting and read and learn more. Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 To be honest, I think NYC might get hit the hardest. Does that notion have anything to do with the latest GFS run? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It's real close for them. Nothing in State College, decent Mt. Pocono. Christ! State College is NOT "eastern PA" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Christ! State College is NOT "eastern PA" State college is in fact central PA and actually positioned more in western PA than east (if no central existed). But on this GFS run, much of eastern PA does get hit pretty good. Not a huge snowfall, but significant accumulations nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Christ! State College is NOT "eastern PA" The point was that E PA was right on the border this run between significant snows and nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The point was that E PA was right on the border this run between significant snows and nada. From the experience of living in NEPA, the setup the 0z GFS shows verbatim screams NEPA screw job.......where Scranton gets like 2-3 inches and Mt. Pocono 6-8, and East of the Delaware River wins....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Who is worried about any onshore winds on the coast?..Those water temps are warm..wish it was 3 weeks later especially for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Who is worried about any onshore winds on the coast?..Those water temps are warm..wish it was 3 weeks later especially for LI I'm worried about the evolution of the storm aloft, then track and nothing else yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 0z GGEM is a benchmark hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Keep breathing, pay my property taxes so the town doesn't take my house away from me, and hold onto my job is my basic hierarchy of fears... Lol Fair enough Pam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GGEM is much better. WxBell map shows 8"+ for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 GGEM is much better. WxBell map shows 8"+ for I-95. Care to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can we please keep this thread dedicated to models and analysis and banter on the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Navgem way east FWIW. It has been amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Happy to see the gfs east as that's pretty much our only hope out here. I will say though 1003 worries me. I could see some disappointed people in the urban heat islands. As we just don't have the dynamics to fully cool the column to the ground for true accumulations. (Other then typical marginal situations grass cars cats haha) I would like to see 980 at 40/70 for plow-able SE of NYC and NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 F'ing Giants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Euro tonight will be interesting for sure-hopefully it at least ticks east. If so, this is looking more like an I-95 event. The interaction between the lead and front pieces of energy and the progressiveness of the trough as a whole will be key. Hopefully we don't see the amount of phasing the 12z Euro had, which caused the ridge to pump and a low tucked in very near the coast. For the coast, a N or NNE wind is what we want, and a low tracking the way the GFS/GGEM has would be great for us. We don't want a long ENE fetch like the Euro had-this would be a killer for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll be surprised if the euro doesn't at least nudge east considering all the models have. Coastal love that BM so it's not surprising it's gravitating towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 people post snowfall prediction maps plz i like the pretty colors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ukie is a benchmark hit http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'll be surprised if the euro doesn't at least nudge east considering all the models have. Coastal love that BM so it's not surprising it's gravitating towards it. The euro probably holds serve more or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Can we please keep this thread dedicated to models and analysis and banter on the banter. I made 36 posts today...some of them pretty fair or at least off beat...and the only reply you give me is to deliver an admonishment...I mean, its a perfectly legitimate admonishment, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ukie is a benchmark hit http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=072 Prob inside the BM but close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ukie is a benchmark hit http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=072 That should excite coastal folks more than the GFS. The ukmet was def more tucked in at 12z Considering it's the number 2 skill score model that's a good sign for a BM hit. That leaves the euro at the western edge of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I made 36 posts today...some of them pretty fair or at least off beat...and the only reply you give me is to deliver an admonishment...I mean, its a perfectly legitimate admonishment, but still... This is an analysis thread...keep this stuff confined to banter. I expect the 0z ECM to tick east considering the ensemble cluster and the new data in the 0z GFS, but I don't think it'll be a dramatic shift. I still believe most of LI will change to rain with the low tracking inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The euro probably holds serve more or less Disagree. All guidance shifted east. Euro will likely correct as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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