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Mitchel Volk

Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

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Both the GFS and ECMWF has a wave that might intensify into a storm. There will be a strong baroclinic zone just off the coast, due to the record warm SST off the coast and decent CCA over the northeast.  The 500MB looks like a possible phase-up or a strong booting of the trough to our south that might make it negatively tilted.   There is also a lot of CAA into the back of the trough too which would support this.  I think that the model trend should show a decent storm moving up or just off the coast.  It is still too early to tell, but this is something to watch.  the thickness values are cold enough under 5400 1000MB - 500MB and under 1290 for the 850MB - 1000MB for snow.

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Everything has to align perfectly (or near perfect) for us to even see a couple inches.

Just like it has to with every storm

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Just like it has to with every storm

More so in November when sea water temperatures are still toasty.

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00z runs have started. Where is Iso out to do some play by play since tropicaltidbits is down

Stormvista is only out to 66

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Thread was made too early, 00z says uhh no no no ...not today

 

 

thank the lord, thanksgiving will not be ruined this year. Let the snow wait till december. next!

It's 5 days out lol

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0z GFS has a flatter ridge out west which sends the storm further east. Skirts the coast with light to moderate precip ( rain and snow ). Still plenty of time.

Exactly, why was it created when its 5 days out, and obviously the GFs went back to its old solution with a flatter ridge. 

This is a weather board and we talk about weather.

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Wish the 12z GFS-P never showed that solution, it made everyone think were about to get a big time storm, when in reality the pattern is pushing an OTS solution which has a HIGH HIGH chance of happening without any blocking up top to slow everything down.

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Wish the 12z GFS-P never showed that solution, it made everyone think were about to get a big time storm, when in reality the pattern is pushing an OTS solution which has a HIGH HIGH chance of happening without any blocking up top to slow everything down.

Dude, the GFS still has the storm nearby. Just relax and watch the models.

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Dude, the GFS still has the storm nearby. Just relax and watch the models.

It will continue to have the storm nearby, but you have to agree, with no blocking to slow everything down, also the pattern isn't setup for a snowstorm, it needs to thread every needle out there for us to get inches.

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It will continue to have the storm nearby, but you have to agree, with no blocking to slow everything down, also the pattern isn't setup for a snowstorm, it needs to thread every needle out there for us to get inches.

Nothing really is  in our favor but that doesn't mean that a storm can't happen. We have seen many storms in unfavorable patterns. Looks like the 0z GGEM is still way offshore.

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I have been following this forum for some years now and threads always start when there's a potential. We discuss model by model because this is a weather discussion forum. So yes models will go back and forth but the thread should still exist if there's a threat.

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This GFS run shows snow in NYC from hrs. 114-123 and snow nearby at hr. 156 again.

850's are cold enough but the surface is a bit warm

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I have been following this forum for some years now and threads always start when there's a potential. We discuss model by model because this is a weather discussion forum. So yes models will go back and forth but the thread should still exist if there's a threat.

There's no problem with the thread, just the quality of the posts. Just my opinion. Carry on everyone.

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It will continue to have the storm nearby, but you have to agree, with no blocking to slow everything down, also the pattern isn't setup for a snowstorm, it needs to thread every needle out there for us to get inches.

All blocking does is cause bigger storms. Who's to say this storm doesn't fly by, but the LP still drops a few inches ❄️

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All blocking does is cause bigger storms. Who's to say this storm doesn't fly by, but the LP still drops a few inches ❄️

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Blocking slows the storm down which causes more precip than a storm without blocking.

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850's are cold enough but the surface is a bit warm

Don't worry about temps right now. Look to see if the pattern supports a storm. If the models consistently show a storm, worry about track/intensity/temps/precipitation types inside 72 hours.

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Blocking slows the storm down which causes more precip than a storm without blocking.

i agree but there's always some blocking. Otherwise we'd have storms going 200 miles and hour spinning also 200 miles an hour.

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I love how some people are all in and then all out on the next model run 5-6 days away Lol. Seriously.

Anyway, long ways to go. Euro ensembles were a bit more promising earlier, I'm interested too see what they have tonight.

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