Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

[PB GFI]

How much wind if any you guys think this storm has with it or behind it?? Is there a chance the balloons won't fly in the parade cause of wind??

Parade cxl

J K. 25 mph winds poss.

[TonyLovesSnow]

BOS is mostly rain on an ECM track...the low goes near PVD which is never good for BOS. Also, BOS is most vulnerable to east winds.

I think NYC is in a much better position for this storm than eastern New England. Living in the northern suburbs with a little elevation, I'm rooting for a western track with more of a polar vortex phase.

You can see the 12z ECM really wants to dig the northern stream...the feature is up near Hudson Bay on the GFS but much further south into the CONUS on the EC at Day 4:

euronorthernstream.gif[/quotee]nice observation of the euro but I still think Boston gets crushed. Time and time Boston ends up getting crushed with a system of this magnitude. Yes this track would bring Boston to mostly a heavy cold rain but I still think the track goes more east after it passes Long Island. In fact IMO I think it goes through the benchmark and just east of the cape. A classic nor'easter track is the right idea here cause the polar vortex would not let the storm to cut anywhere the whole time the storm would be offshore.

[Joe4alb]

Update from Upton:

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY WEEK...WITH
PHASING SOUTHERN STREAM/NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY LIFTING INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MON
NIGHT/TUE. THE RESULT WILL BE A BOMBING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH AS THE UPPER ENERGY. AHEAD OF IT...DEEP S/SW
FLOW...WITH 70-75 KT LLJ...WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS (PW 3-4 STD
ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION UP AND OVER AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLIDING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING INDICATE SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF TRI-STATE. RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MIDDAY MON...WITH REGION WARM SECTORED IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...15-20 DEG ABOVE SEASONABLE...POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR MON AFT. A TIGHT SW GRADIENT AND CONTINUED HEALTHY
LLJ OF 40-45 KT AT 950 MB SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC MON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND
RESULTANT DEEPER MIXED LAYER. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...AND
CAA IN ITS WAKE.

TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

THEN POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE REGION
WED/WED NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
DRIVER FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC
ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING EARLY
THIS WEEK...WITH THE ENERGY PIVOTING UP THE COAST MIDWEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
DIFFERENCES EXIST MORE SO WITH THE DEGREE OF THIS SECOND
INTERACTION...AFFECTING HOW NEGATIVELY TILTED THE TROUGH BECOMES.
THE RESULT IS SOME TIMING...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH HOW
CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF TRACKS TO
THE REGION WED NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW COAST...SNOW INTERIOR ON
WED...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK NORTH. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
TALK ABOUT SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATION...BUT AT THIS POINT A LOW
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE
TRI-STATE. 

[SleetStormNJ]

How much wind if any you guys think this storm has with it or behind it?? Is there a chance the balloons won't fly in the parade cause of wind??

 

Wind might be an issue late in the evening/overnight Wednesday based on current modeling.  But that would be the least of the problems.  If it dumps enough snow overnight, travel would be really cut back in the morning and snow removal would be an issue for side streets in a lot of places.

 

Macys might love the idea of a wintry Thanksgiving scene, but we live in an era of lawsuits and litigation.

 

We're probably getting ahead of ourselves.

[Animal]

Both the GFS and ECMWF has a wave that might intensify into a storm. There will be a strong baroclinic zone just off the coast, due to the record warm SST off the coast and decent CCA over the northeast.  The 500MB looks like a possible phase-up or a strong booting of the trough to our south that might make it negatively tilted.   There is also a lot of CAA into the back of the trough too which would support this.  I think that the model trend should show a decent storm moving up or just off the coast.  It is still too early to tell, but this is something to watch.  the thickness values are cold enough under 5400 1000MB - 500MB and under 1290 for the 850MB - 1000MB for snow.

 

Great call Sir!

[nzucker]

 

 

nice observation of the euro but I still think Boston gets crushed. Time and time Boston ends up getting crushed with a system of this magnitude. Yes this track would bring Boston to mostly a heavy cold rain but I still think the track goes more east after it passes Long Island. In fact IMO I think it goes through the benchmark and just east of the cape. A classic nor'easter track is the right idea here cause the polar vortex would not let the storm to cut anywhere the whole time the storm would be offshore

There have been plenty of systems that changed BOS to rain like Dec 30 2000 and Feb 26 2010. Looking at the 12z ECM verbatim, Boston is mostly rain. The 850 line looks like it gets up to ORH at 120 hours, and there are other warm layers before that at 700mb. 

 

The polar vortex will pull the system west if it phases into the trough/southern stream. For the PV to be suppressive, it needs to be entirely north of the system like we saw with early March of last year and Feb 5 2010. If the PV phases in, you get a far west solution like Mar 1993 or Nov 1950 where the PV yanks the whole trough very negative. 

[nzucker]

yes I'm a that's why I'm here bud

Can we lay off the useless one liners filled with emoticons? No one wants to read through this, and it clogs up the thread...

 

18z GFS at 81 hours is digging the northern energy more, and the entire PV feature is farther south and closer to a phase. Looks a bit like the 12z ECM but we'll see where it goes...

[96blizz]

GFS looks similar to 12z out to 84.  I think this comes a bit more West based on the orientation of the trough.

[nzucker]

GFS looks similar to 12z out to 84.  I think this comes a bit more West based on the orientation of the trough.

The trough/southern stream is a little sharper than 12z. Also, the northern energy from the PV is farther south and should lead to a more phased solution.

[96blizz]

Yup.  A smidge West.  You could see the trough a bit sharper earlier on.  Another good tick West in our favor.

[REDMK6GLI]

The trough/southern stream is a little sharper than 12z. Also, the northern energy from the PV is farther south and should lead to a more phased solution.

Yup this thing gets yanked west like the EURO is showing with the PV getting phased in im out of the game IMO, gonna be alot over come warm air intrusion on the south shore of LI.

Then again this is november so it doesnt matter if it snows or not since we climatologically speaking dont see it till later in december

[96blizz]

Yup this thing gets yanked west like the EURO is showing with the PV getting phased in im out of the game IMO, gonna be alot over come warm air intrusion on the south shore of LI

Still way East of the Euro solution, but seems to be inching towards converging on a solution.  Benchmark to just inside/outside track is looking more and more favorable.

[CooL]

Lots more phasing over the lakes, clearly a trend towards the euro. 

[Heisy]

PGFS still ain't buying, good early season test

[PB GFI]

The center ends up a hair west of the 12z op run of the GFS . Did not get tugged one way or the other.

[SnoSki14]

As long as it stays on course then that's good or even a tick west helps. Another crazy thing if the storm occurs would be the fact that only two days prior or this Monday will be a low 70s torch.

[nzucker]

Lots more phasing over the lakes, clearly a trend towards the euro. 

Still leaves a bunch of energy behind as there's a weak 1016mb low moving through MI due to the lack of phasing with the northern stream.

 

Any second low to the north is going to introduce more easterly flow and make it harder for the coastal plain to stay all snow. 

[SnowGoose69]

As long as it stays on course then that's good or even a tick west helps. Another crazy thing if the storm occurs would be the fact that only two days prior or this Monday will be a low 70s torch.

 

Thats somewhat of a trademark of November snows here, 1995 and 1989 were in the 60s a few days before.

[96blizz]

Thats somewhat of a trademark of November snows here, 1995 and 1989 were in the 60s a few days before.

Yup --- I remember a few of these occurring in the Spring as well.  Particularly one in like 1999 or 2000 I think.  I remember playing golf in Scranton one day in April and it was 70 and waking up to 7" of snow.  

 

The timing of the next cold shot w/ the phasing of this is awesome to track!

[Nygmen]

was the gfs snow down to the coast?

[bluewave]

Plenty of tropical moisture with this to work with as the moisture feed

goes right down to Central America. We could see some hybrid

characteristics with the storm if can really go to town like the

OP Euro is hinting at.

 

 

 

[Neblizzard]

Plenty of tropical moisture with this to work with as the moisture feed

goes right down to Central America. We could see some hybrid

characteristics with the storm if can really go to town like the

OP Euro is hinting at.

North32America_msl_96.gif

An El Niño sure doesn't hurt. You can see the subtropical connection from the ENSO region.

[PB GFI]

Plenty of tropical moisture with this to work with as the moisture feed

goes right down to Central America. We could see some hybrid

characteristics with the storm if can really go to town like the

OP Euro is hinting at.

 

North32America_msl_96.gif

The ensemble mean is close to 1.5 inches of Iiquid.

I Wana see what 12Z tomorrow looks like before I even start thinking P type

50 miles is all its going to take. And we are far away from that

[bluewave]

An El Niño sure doesn't hurt. You can see the subtropical connection from the ENSO region.

 

This could be very convective especially near the center. Even the GFS breaks off a piece of 2.00" PWATS

and drags it pretty far north for late November.

[MJO812]

A track between the Euro and GFS would be nice.

[bluewave]

The ensemble mean is close to 1.5 inches of Iiquid.

I Wana see what 12Z tomorrow looks like before I even start thinking P type

50 miles is all its going to take. And we are far away from that

 

A big precip producer looks like a good bet close enough to the track with the low developing down near key West

and riding up the coast.

[NEG NAO]

I'll believe this when I see it snow accumulation on the GA/FLA border in November

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=18&fhour=114&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[WeatherFox]

My comment tonight is that it is amazing to have seen the improvements of numerical, dynamic and statistical weather forecasting models over the past decades. The message I want to hammer home is that winter weather forecasting for NYC has and until recently remained very challenging at times. I've seen a swing to the fence to only see a strike out. Enjoy the model watching, analysis but remember even 12-24 hours forecasts bust at least in some parts of the New York and Tri-State area. Good luck to all New York City folks for lots of snow in the upcoming days, weeks and months⛄️

[Doorman]

Spin your take on the high pressure locations

 

the guidance looks very suspect  ATM 

 

for the guests

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/storm-t_zpswxl7jtjs.gif

[NEG NAO]

Spin your take on the high pressure locations

 

the guidance looks very suspect  ATM 

storm-t.gif

 

for the guests

http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/storm-t_zpswxl

need the wind direction to stay out of the n- ne - so the placement of the HP is critical along with the exact track of the storm - the more easterly wind component = less frozen