Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

[rgwp96]

Reading mt hollys discussion says it all . They are favoring rain for most areas outside the poconos . These snow maps are eye candy only .

[IsentropicLift]

I've seen this movie before. Euro looks locked and loaded, other guidance struggling to catch up.

[MJO812]

And don`t make me post the Euro control snow map . It will cause a riot ( in a good way )  it was even better than yesterdays 12z run  . I do however fear that this could tug a hair west .( just what these storms like to do ) . That said the Euro ensemble cluster is at the BM . Lets hope that looks like that at 3pm with it`s ensemble package .

I will be interested to look at the individual members as sometimes the mean is just smoothed out .

 

We always seem to be playing with fire from the Hudson on east , but that`s the norm for the region on the coastal plain .

Wxbell's snowmap is a weenie's dream

 

Reading mt hollys discussion says it all . They are favoring rain for most areas outside the poconos . These snow maps are eye candy only .

It looks like Upton is forecasting that also with a change to snow at the end. Track is still yet to be determined .

[MJO812]

I've seen this movie before. Euro looks locked and loaded, other guidance struggling to catch up.

Euro is the king when it comes to Miller A's. The GFS dominated last winter because all the storms were from the northern stream.

[IsentropicLift]

Reading mt hollys discussion says it all . They are favoring rain for most areas outside the poconos . These snow maps are eye candy only .

We're ground zero for this one Buddy. NW NJ to LHV local JP.

[SnoSki14]

if the track and the bombing low are ideal then you often see models start trending lower with temps. At least that's one thing I've often seen models do from past storms of this nature. There's still 3 days of changes to go.

[REDMK6GLI]

Euro is the king when it comes to Miller A's. The GFS dominated last winter because all the storms were from the northern stream.

Yes the EURO models bread and butter is Miller A's. it has lethal accuracy when it is comes to GOM originated systems like this. Obviously for my sake i want this to take a BM track because the tucked OP EURO warms me and i rain for 90% of the event

[MJO812]

We're ground zero for this one Buddy. NW NJ to LHV local JP.

Don't declare victory until the storm is near. Yes it looks good for you but the track could be either west of the benchmark, on the benchmark or east of the benchmark. That will make a big difference in our area.

[96blizz]

Reading mt hollys discussion says it all . They are favoring rain for most areas outside the poconos . These snow maps are eye candy only .

Was the most interesting thing I found this AM. However, I don't think the models are showing that. I think a healthy portion of NJ and E PA get healthy snows based on both the Euro and GFS. Perhaps they are hedging, but I did find their muted cold/snow working a bit surprising to be honest.

[MJO812]

Yes the EURO models bread and butter is Miller A's. it has lethal accuracy when it is comes to GOM originated systems like this. Obviously for my sake i want this to take a BM track because the tucked OP EURO warms me and i rain for 90% of the event

I think we all do

[PB GFI]

Yes the EURO models bread and butter is Miller A's. it has lethal accuracy when it is comes to GOM originated systems like this. Obviously for my sake i want this to take a BM track because the tucked OP EURO warms me and i rain for 90% of the event

You are in a bad spot for this one bud IMO. I might be too .

[rgwp96]

Anybody else having issue with plymouth sounding page? I can't get anything to work. Just blank pages

[hazwoper]

Reading mt hollys discussion says it all . They are favoring rain for most areas outside the poconos . These snow maps are eye candy only .

Huh?! How did you get that from their AFD????

[IsentropicLift]

I generally only like to views films I've seen and enjoyed previously...thus I won't squander 90 minutes or so on something that is not really worth my time...though that can present a problem when it comes to seeing new things.

This movie isn't for you.

[rgwp96]

Huh?! How did you get that from their AFD????

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

[96blizz]

Huh?! How did you get that from their AFD????

He read it.

[hazwoper]

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

Oh I see now

Thanks

[PB GFI]

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

 

 

I see 33 at 96 at KNYC on the 0Z Euro with 850`s at Minus 2 . That`s well above freezing ?

[MJO812]

You are in a bad spot for this one bud IMO. I might be too .

Lets all root for a further east track

[rgwp96]

ROAD GFS SOLUTION SHOWS THE PRECIP EXTENDING WEST OF THE POCONOS.

PRECIP TYPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A

MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION,

PRODUCING A ROBUST WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD MEAN VERY FEW ICE

CRYSTALS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF THE POCONOS, THE ECMWF KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE

FREEZING, SO JUST A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION WHILE THERE

IS A SLIM CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

POCONOS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE JET, AND CONSEQUENTLY

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE OCEAN, RESULTING IN EITHER

ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL SNOW

POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS. WITH EITHER SOLUTION, THE CHANCES OF

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY SEEM SMALL (WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE POCONOS).

WHAT COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE IS IF OR HOW LONG THE PRECIP LINGERS

THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS PRECIP

I see 33 at 96 at KNYC on the 0Z Euro with 850`s at Minus 2 . That`s well above freezing ?

That's what's puzzling . I don't have surface soundings for the euro . And for some reason I can't get plymouth sounding page to show anything but blank pages for the other models

[IsentropicLift]

Lets all root for a further east track

That screws others. Why not just concede this one and hope for better luck next time?

[REDMK6GLI]

You are in a bad spot for this one bud IMO. I might be too .

Thats the way i see it! Some good tidbits to take from this though, we're having coastals already this season, producing a notable storm w/o blocking AND biggest for me, the pattern going into winter looks even better for more cold and snow opportunities with the blocking and weak el nino. Hard to be sour looking at what we may get come end of december and into january and february paul

[MJO812]

That screws others. Why not just concede this one and hope for better luck next time?

Because nothing is set in stone yet

[BoulderWX]

looking more and more likely that the area will be impacted by a storm on Wednesday evening. I'd heavily favor NWNJ and the Poconos for best snows, but wouldn't rule out seeing some snow and slushy accumulation in and around the city either. Travel is not going to be fun... 

[IsentropicLift]

Because nothing is set in stone yet

Save a Horse, ride the Euro.

[PB GFI]

That's what's puzzling . I don't have surface soundings for the euro . And for some reason I can't get plymouth sounding page to show anything but blank pages for the other models

At 102 its 35 and Minus 1 at 850 ( And I would not hang my hat on the surface rising on a NE wind ) with a center from OBX to CC deepening 15 mb in 12 hours . Again its marginal but not " WELL ABOVE FREEZING "  To be fair the warm punch is at 700 MB . Not the surface . So my disagreement may be in the language and not the end result . \

Especially from the city E.

[MJO812]

Save a Horse, ride the Euro.

Euro has been consistent but the track can still waver.

[Weathergun]

Coastal sections want this closer to 70W than 72W like the Euro has.

 

DT freebie

 

10805553_779198732127387_1525288237034020097_n.jpg

 

This snowfall map looks more accurate for the 0z Euro. 700mb temps were +2C and +3C for NYC and coast by 0z Thursday. There would more mixing or poor snow growth.

[IsentropicLift]

Euro has been consistent but the track can still waver.

The Euro verbatim isn't bad for the city. Only one or two panels of possible taint.

[hazwoper]

He read it.

Mt. holly Facebook post from an hour ago is not as certain that "everywhere outside of Poconis" is rain.