SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The GGEM took a baby step west but its still pretty much a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Very tough forecast for Tv mets,should be interesting to see how they try forecast this potential..( meant to say all mets but especially mets who must make a broadcast forecast .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This is the look of the 12Z GFS out this way. I've seen worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This is the look of the 12Z GFS out this way. I've seen worse 12Zgfs.gif The big difference here is the surface winds versus the KNYC sounding I posted. Winds are more ENE on LI versus more due north in the CIty. That causes a lot of boundary layer warming as you can see as all of 950-1000mb is above freezing. Hence the high thicknesses shown on models despite favorable 850s. It's all about wind direction and antecedent cold. Good chance Long Island is rain for much of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The track on the gfs is pretty good it doesn't need to be further west. Hopefully the low itself trends a bit stronger so we get better dynamics to work with. I don't expect massive changes in track from the euro as its a miller A storm in a fairly decent time range for that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 12z Ukmet @ 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 UKMET looks west of GFS at 96 and is closer to Euro camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 A more amplified solution seems reasonable given both the upstream and downstream variables. There's nothing stopping the surface low from essentially riding the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Euro Control is a MECS still. EPS look great, seems more then half show at least warning criteria or advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The big difference here is the surface winds versus the KNYC sounding I posted. Winds are more ENE on LI versus more due north in the CIty. That causes a lot of boundary layer warming as you can see as all of 950-1000mb is above freezing. Hence the high thicknesses shown on models despite favorable 850s. It's all about wind direction and antecedent cold. Good chance Long Island is rain for much of this storm. I don't disagree at all. Out here its always about antecedent airmass(which is not good) and wind direction, even in mid Jan. never mind Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Its Euro Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Nothing noteworthy on the Euro through 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I live on north fork and have seen many times where's they call for mix or change,it doesn't happen....or delayed a lot longer then called for...I'm in orient,i tend to run colder then a lot of other places do to.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 at work on phone...but quick thoughts tell me an impact event is unfolding but thickness values and boundary layer remain very sketchy even a bit inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Trough axis is a tick west through 36 hours. Energy still digging over New Mexico matching 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Through 51 hours everything is just a tick West of 00z. No notable changes that would cause a widely different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The Euro is very different this run compared to 00z in regards to the trailing shortwave. It's much more amplified and aggressive. But more notably, the energy over the Southern US faster -- not elongated as much from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Backside energy dropping in a bit faster than 00z, low pressure beginning to take shape in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Backside energy digging slightly more by 60 hours over ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 60 hours now has major differences from 00z. Hard to say exactly what they will lead to, but the entire flow orientation is changed. The height field is more amplified on the East Coast, but the lead s/w being faster may lead to the eventual outcome being farther east. It's hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 H5 orientation tells me this is looking likely to be more amplified. But, like I said -- still hard to say at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The lead vort is still over Mississippi but it's more amplified than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 The lead vort is still over Mississippi but it's more amplified than 00z. The height field over the East Coast is much more amplified too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 H5 orientation tells me this is looking likely to be more amplified. But, like I said -- still hard to say at this juncture. The backside energy is trying to drop in faster, and is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This is going to end up pretty amped and warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 66 hrs the stalled front over region 30 miles further west than 0z. Low developing quicker near NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Big low over coastal NC, precip moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 This looks like a pretty extreme solution. The trailing shortwave is really amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hr 75 low going right over obx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Jet streak orientation might take the surface low directly over Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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