MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Why discuss the Nam , might as well bring in the JMA ; I remb that model picked up on a monster storm few years back Feb 2006. It was the first model to see that storm a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yes thanks ant ; I couldn't remb what year that was what a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nam is okay under 48 hrs but preferably under 36. Even then it can often have serious problems with how much liquid it spews out. The gfs/Euro combo is tough to beat but I am hoping for some slight eastward adjustments. I would use the GGEM within 48 hrs before the NAM these days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would use the GGEM RGEM within 48 hrs before the NAM these days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM being this far east could be meaningful, its almost always very phased in these setups beyond 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I would use the GGEM RGEM within 48 hrs before the NAM these days lol That's what I meant... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The NAM being this far east could be meaningful, its almost always very phased in these setups beyond 60 hours.Not lately, it's been the driest model a lot lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 If the gfs nudges east as well, then an eyebrow will be raised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Interesting, I say the NAM being east could mean something, yet, that Isentropiclift guy, said I was embarrassing myself. Nothing wrong in discussing a model on a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The RGEM is even less amped than the NAM at 48....RGEM not great beyond 36 but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Interesting, I say the NAM being east could mean something, yet, that Isentropiclift guy, said I was embarrassing myself. Saying a model can "mean something" is kind of a broad statement that could potential apply to any model... I could say the same about any other model... What makes you think that the NAM holds any clue as to the outcome?!? 12 hours ago it had cloudy skies for the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Btw my previous post is a serious question... I just wanna know why people are considering the NAM to hold some hidden key to an eastern trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is gonna be a brutal winter season with you guys and gals. Its not even December yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The RGEM is even less amped than the NAM at 48....RGEM not great beyond 36 but interesting nonetheless.Would really be hilarious if the jackpot is eastern Long Island with 3-6". Chances are, these runs mean nothing, but it's not like we haven't seen this happen before and turned out to be true. The euro is much more likely to be closer to the solution than the NAM, but it doesn't mean that it's solution will come true either. Even if the NAM's 00z solution is closer to what really happens, it's not a "victory" for the NAM. It clearly has wild ups and downs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Nothing wrong in discussing a model on a weather board. Agreed; if it's a correct analysis of any model I think it should be allowed, regardless of the accuracy. We all know that all models have their biases, and we just have to realize that we should take each model's solutions with a grain of salt. If the current NAM solution is correct, I will be shocked, but it is certainly not out of the question. It's just the fact that the NAM shows a completely radically different outcome every model run, there's hardly a trend to even notice. And it just doesn't make sense meteorologically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is gonna be a brutal winter season with you guys and gals. Its not even December yet... We can break out the razorblades for the first time this year if the GFS comes in wide right, my hunch tells me its going to be close to 18Z but nothing would surprise me anymore, the last 3-4 winters the models have been really bad on numerous systems inside 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We can break out the razorblades for the first time this year if the GFS comes in wide right, my hunch tells me its going to be close to 18Z but nothing would surprise me anymore, the last 3-4 winters the models have been really bad on numerous systems inside 4 days.I know, I've been around long enough. Wayyy into the Eastern days..lol I mostly keep quiet, read and look at the maps. but its already like the bottom of the 9th, one run down, bases loaded and a full count...People need to just relax. We got a long wayyy to go folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 We can break out the razorblades for the first time this year if the GFS comes in wide right, my hunch tells me its going to be close to 18Z but nothing would surprise me anymore, the last 3-4 winters the models have been really bad on numerous systems inside 4 days. Isn't that the truth. I recall wild flips last winter by most of the main models literally within a few hours of an event's start time. I attributed it to perhaps some peculiar difficulty with last winter's pattern. Very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How about end of February and March when 5 storms went 200 miles south last minute.. Something like that, dont remember the details.. I was going koo koo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its about time for the GFS. Anyone calling it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 here comes the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Well said ; too early to say winter cancel etc etc if this storm is a miss ..also in reality this is not December or January its November keep that in mind ..I remb a few years back we were all waiting for this epic snow storm ...a rare triple phaser ..storm warnings were out etc etc and we all know what happened there ..that's a heart break for a snow fan..so let's keep things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its about time for the GFS. Anyone calling it ? Ensembles from 18z looked good, I say a touch bit east this run, but overall not much change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS is quicker with the lead vort early on, otherwise not much change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 here comes the 00z GFS We know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ensembles from 18z looked good, I say a touch bit east this run, but overall not much change. Ensembles were mostly southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 00Z, NAM hits NYC LaGuardia with 3.9" of snowfall..I don't believe it. In my opinion surface temperatures will not be cold enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its about time for the GFS. Anyone calling it ? I've said it before and I'll say it again: there are few things more pointless than trying to foretell a forecast model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I've said it before and I'll say it again: there are few things more pointless than trying to foretell a forecast model. Telling us its running might be one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Trailing shortwave is stronger, but in about the same spot as 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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