SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The euro probably holds serve more or less It tends not to make big changes so it would likely move a bit east, it won't go all the way in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I made 36 posts today...some of them pretty fair or at least off beat...and the only reply you give me is to deliver an admonishment...I mean, its a perfectly legitimate admonishment, but still...That was just timing. Wasn't aimed at u pam ( im sorry about that ) You were in the line of fire. Had to climb over lotta garbage here before the 0z suite Newbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It tends not to make big changes so it would likely move a bit east, it won't go all the way in one run It's ensemble mean and the gfs are not that far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT cracks me up "the 00Z GFS is bull****" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ukmet is inside benchmark http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 It tends not to make big changes so it would likely move a bit east, it won't go all the way in one run There were a few times last winter where all models except the Euro had a certain outcome, and everyone was expecting the Euro to cave but alas, within 24 hours all other models moved back towards Euro. Still too early folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT cracks me up "the 00Z GFS is bull****" Yeah I have no idea why he is constantly hugging the EURO so much... The GFS has actually been fairly consistent with this storm over the past couple of runs and honestly I think that it's solution is the most plausible at the time. You can't ignore the fact that that every other model has this storm located at or just east of the benchmark. At this point the EURO is a borderline outlier. I expect it to shift SLIGHTLY east of 12z. I'm thinking that this storm ends up tracking just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ukie is a benchmark hit http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=072 Looks to be inside the benchmark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 About half of the 00z GEFS members are West of the OP with the other half very close to the OP. Very few members are East of the OP. The 00z UKMET looks like it would track over Long Island to me. And the UKMET is known for being too far southeast. It was the very last model to shift west for Boxing Day FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 About half of the 00z GEFS members are West of the OP with the other half very close to the OP. Very few members are East of the OP. The 00z UKMET looks like it would track over Long Island to me. And the UKMET is known for being too far southeast. It was the very last model to shift west for Boxing Day FWIW. How would that track over LI? Wow at your NW bias. It's hilarious. The Ukmet would be near or just inside of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 About half of the 00z GEFS members are West of the OP with the other half very close to the OP. Very few members are East of the OP. The 00z UKMET looks like it would track over Long Island to me. And the UKMET is known for being too far southeast. It was the very last model to shift west for Boxing Day FWIW. Where do you view the GFS ensembles, I have wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 This is an analysis thread...keep this stuff confined to banter. I expect the 0z ECM to tick east considering the ensemble cluster and the new data in the 0z GFS, but I don't think it'll be a dramatic shift. I still believe most of LI will change to rain with the low tracking inside the benchmark. There is a reason we call it king euro. I think it shifts east too but not enough to cut it east of NYC. This run is huge to see if the trend continues. Climo screams climb the northern Gulf Stream wall and hence a closer to bench mark track though. Let's see what happens tonght! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How would that track over LI? Wow at your NW bias. It's hilarious. The Ukmet would be near or just inside of the BM. Its looks to track around 40N/72W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The ukmet is EAST at 60 hours from where it was at 12z at 72 hours. Instead of trying to draw a straight line back from hour 96 and saying inside etc. Just go back 12 hours and see where it is off the SC coast. It's east . Sorry. It's east and goes over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How would that track over LI? Wow at your NW bias. It's hilarious. The Ukmet would be near or just inside of the BM. Based on that map it would have to go NNW to hit LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 About half of the 00z GEFS members are West of the OP with the other half very close to the OP. Very few members are East of the OP. The 00z UKMET looks like it would track over Long Island to me. And the UKMET is known for being too far southeast. It was the very last model to shift west for Boxing Day FWIW. There's no way that low would track over LI-the trough is carrying it east. Looks like it would probably scrape the outer Cape. And from what others are saying it's less amped than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 850's are cold enough on the UKMET to support snow northwest of the city. The surface is a couple degrees above freezing in most of NNJ but cold enough for snow in those areas. LI is upper 30s to low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Its looks to track around 40N/72W Close to the bm or over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How would that track over LI? Wow at your NW bias. It's hilarious. The Ukmet would be near or just inside of the BM. I lol when u read this stuff. It's east of its 0z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 How would that track over LI? Wow at your NW bias. It's hilarious. The Ukmet would be near or just inside of the BM. It's still rain for you, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 850's are cold enough on the UKMET to support snow northwest of the city. The surface is a couple degrees above freezing in most of NNJ but cold enough for snow in those areas. LI is upper 30s to low 40s. Precip is over by hour 72 and by then 1.25" of precip has fallen for NYC as mostly snow. Likely a solid 6"-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 DT cracks me up "the 00Z GFS is bull****" Its falling snow as per 850 temps but surface temps look to be in the mid 30's. QPF over .75". I can only wishcast for accumulating snow on grassy areas and car tops during the overnight period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Ludicrous post. Meteograms show mostly snow for NYC. These maps don't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Soundings show snow The surface is at least +4C at that frame. No way it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 These maps don't lie Did you look at the soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Thia is going to be a very long season. I dont expect more than an inch here in central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 isentropic your posts about the ukmet are just flat out wrong. First of all, 0% chance on this run that the storms tracks over LI. 0%. I agree with jm thought it likely scrapes CC. Second of all, the precip is basically shut off at 72 so posting that showing the 850 temps and 2m temps is worthless. From 60-72 1.2in of liquid falls and the whole time the 850mb is below 0. Find me a layer above 0 other than the surface and you can make an argument its non-frozen. Again this is for NYC. LI does not do nearly as well as areas like queens, manhattan bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 These maps don't lie Precip is over by hour 72 and the surface temps are 32-33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 isentropic your posts about the ukmet are just flat out wrong. First of all, 0% chance on this run that the storms tracks over LI. 0%. I agree with jm thought it likely scrapes CC. Second of all, the precip is basically shut off at 72 so posting that showing the 850 temps and 2m temps is worthless. From 60-72 1.2in of liquid falls and the whole time the 850mb is below 0. Find me a layer above 0 other than the surface and you can make an argument its non-frozen. Again this is for NYC. LI does not do nearly as well as areas like queens, manhattan bronx. This. He keeps posting the hour 72 map, when the precip is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 isentropic your posts about the ukmet are just flat out wrong. First of all, 0% chance on this run that the storms tracks over LI. 0%. I agree with jm thought it likely scrapes CC. Second of all, the precip is basically shut off at 72 so posting that showing the 850 temps and 2m temps is worthless. From 60-72 1.2in of liquid falls and the whole time the 850mb is below 0. Find me a layer above 0 other than the surface and you can make an argument its non-frozen. Again this is for NYC. LI does not do nearly as well as areas like queens, manhattan bronx. Shut off at 72? Very wrong. This is not a 6 hour totals panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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