dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think BOX just changed their package as well. Looks Nam/RGEM weighted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Subsidence exhaust from Woburn poundage?Yes Thinking 6" of mashed potatoes here. Mid levels getting a little warm here though. Hopefully we see them cool a bit toward 18z and 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks Nam/RGEM weighted I will happily take 10-14 here...quite please with the BOX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 start times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think BOX just changed their package as well. BOX is going with a central Mass jackpot of 10-14 and general 8-10 outside of that. Looks like GYX and ALY maps argue for an expansion of BOX's jack. Or, those offices are over-shooting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Says the king of qpf swing How could I not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Also anyone have the box map and a link to it so I can bookmark it. TYIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I mean if you are Ray to Will down to even TOL..you are getting a good deal of snow. Does it matter of it's 6 or 8, 8 or 11 in November? I'd hit that so hard and fast.A few like jack. The rest like snow/ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Also anyone have the box map and a link to it so I can bookmark it. TYIA http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Also anyone have the box map and a link to it so I can bookmark it. TYIA http://www.weather.gov/box/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can you point me in the direction of the meso guidance that you use to determine cf positioning, ageostrophic component, etc? Well I like to look at wind vectors and then apply a climo mask in my mind. So in this case, the winds very near BOS are N-NNE vs NE over the harbor. Knowing model resolution and how quickly a low is deepening as well as its movement..I may fudge it a bit here and there. You can get a sense of it here. The 12z ARW and NMM aren't available yet, but look st the winds on the 12z HIRES NAM. You can get a sense of it there. Also those RGEM ptype charts. I know they aren't zoomed in, but look how close it is to the coast. The RPM shows this as well. Of course if this moves closer then the CF probably will move NW a bit, but they don't like to move very far NW as you know. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The fact is most of us are going to see 6-12 inches of snow and some even more near MPM.Do people really care if they get a couple hours of sleet on top to lock in the pack an extra day or 2 next week when it milds up for a few days? Who cares if you sleet. It's preporsterous people rooting against sleet Most of us? Most in our own state will not see 6, let alone 12 (never mind most in SNE as you implied), inches as it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png Thank you. Gotta love the 128 belt gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Kicked up a notch........ 4-6 to 10-14. Chris must be back on short term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Also anyone have the box map and a link to it so I can bookmark it. TYIA http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LOL, I'm not losing it..I won't get much of anything...but I like forecasting too. When it's S+ and 18 at my house while MPM is pounding 3" of snow sand...we will see who loses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lol...sorry snowman21, I thought you were the NH poster Yeah for CT, 6" will be confined to northern and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LOL, I'm not losing it..I won't get much of anything...but I like forecasting too. When it's S+ and 18 at my house while MPM is pounding 3" of snow sand...we will see who loses it.you'll get your storm, its early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's always amusing being the guy who's down the drain, helping those undo the noose in the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 LOL, I'm not losing it..I won't get much of anything...but I like forecasting too. When it's S+ and 18 at my house while MPM is pounding 3" of snow sand...we will see who loses it. You working terminals Weds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 4-6 to 10-14. Chris must be back on short term He is, He told me yesterday it was in his time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM doesn't look like it pings BDL with the newest run. Definitely warmer than 0z but colder than 6z. Here take a look as the temp with height over time never gets to 0C and the sounding gets close but never touches 0C aloft either. Sounding: http://goo.gl/WJA5fk Time Height: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KBDL&model=nam&time=2014112512&field=temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 weenies have some knowledge but forecast by their emotions. meteorologists have some emotion but forecast by their knowledge we are seeing it all front and center today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM doesn't look like it pings BDL with the newest run. Definitely warmer than 0z but colder than 6z. Here take a look as the temp with height over time never gets to 0C and the sounding gets close but never touches 0C aloft either. Sounding: http://goo.gl/ WJA5fk Time Height: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi? region=CT&stn=KBDL&model=nam&time=2014112512&f ield=temp I think being further west helps as well its not a straight north-south gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lol...sorry snowman21, I thought you were the NH poster Yeah for CT, 6" will be confined to northern and northwest. No that's me and I know we will be getting a decent amount of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Stick a fork in snow growth by 21z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You working terminals Weds? No, keeping them in the air. That may be hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png They finally got a clue. Funny how being just ont he right side of rt 128, I'm better off then most of the interior to the s of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On BUFKIT GFS is not exactly exciting for Hartford. All sorts of issues sneaky warm layer at nearly 600 mb and a very "warm" cloud for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 That dryslot depiction is classic noose tying material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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