weathafella Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 WInds gonna rip tomorrow. Soundings look wild..50+ region wide. Charge your phones and get flashlights at the ready For 50 gusts? It happens with reasonable frequency here. Anyway....buried wires ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 GFS still bringing it. Stronger than the NAM, almost a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 1-2" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Congrats Scooter and folks out east..I'll admit..I'm going to b pissed tomorrow morning..but happy for you guys Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 10m 10 minutes ago who are you??--> MT @4castrnh fat lady stopped singing! 18Z NAM more in line w GFS, could get near blizzard conditions around BOS tmrw AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 GFS still bringing it. Been pretty steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Noticed the 925 and 850 wind secondary wind maxes in the Orh hills to you, could be interesting for you guys at elevation Tips jet engines at tree tops landing in forest floors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Congrats Scooter and folks out east..I'll admit..I'm going to b pissed tomorrow morning..but happy for you guys Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 10m 10 minutes ago who are you??--> MT @4castrnh fat lady stopped singing! 18Z NAM more in line w GFS, could get near blizzard conditions around BOS tmrw AM? It may take a bit to flip if it happens. This is not an easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Congrats Scooter and folks out east..I'll admit..I'm going to b pissed tomorrow morning..but happy for you guys Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 10m 10 minutes ago who are you??--> MT @4castrnh fat lady stopped singing! 18Z NAM more in line w GFS, could get near blizzard conditions around BOS tmrw AM? you'll get yours.. happy b-day.. I forget if it was today or it's tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Jerrys hood, holla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 you'll get yours.. happy b-day.. I forget if it was today or it's tomorrow. He's doing the classic pre congrats hoping it doesn't work out. Meanwhile, guess who gives his thoughts to him as he gets 8-12" and I'm down the drain. Nothing is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 So close yet so far away up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 43 here. Let's keep it dropping and get some snow in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I would assume the Nam is even close to a surprise heredumpage here too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 dumpage here too. Lol Lol how we pray it scores a win for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Noticed the 925 and 850 wind secondary wind maxes in the Orh hills to you, could be interesting for you guys at elevationRarely verifies around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 35F. Getting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 He's doing the classic pre congrats hoping it doesn't work out. Meanwhile, guess who gives his thoughts to him as he gets 8-12" and I'm down the drain. Nothing is a lock. LOL..I truly hope it works out. I'm already angry that I'm missing out on it while your deck collapses from the house..but happy that you guys are getting an early snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Man if the 18z GFS was only 50-100 miles west, we'd have that CCB squarely in New England. That close to getting a lot of folks drilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 He's doing the classic pre congrats hoping it doesn't work out. Meanwhile, guess who gives his thoughts to him as he gets 8-12" and I'm down the drain. Nothing is a lock. It would be cool to see you guys get pasted tomorrow morning... no one gave a shat in October 2011 when you guys watched a massive historic event unfold just to your west lol. Maybe this pays it back somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Boy does the 18z GFS wanna still bring home the bacon. Also shift that heavy band access slightly northward into Cumberland & Sagadahoc counties and points east. Very possible the band would move into those areas if the storm wiggles a little more west or perfect dynamics set up. Of course this is if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It would be cool to see you guys get pasted tomorrow morning... no one gave a shat in October 2011 when you guys watched a massive historic event unfold just to your west lol. Maybe this pays it back somewhat. Good point. I got 2 inches of slop in that event. It would be nice to catch the ccb, lot of folks would be waking up scratching their head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 be ready for surprise for snow sunday morning for sne area and lots of wind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Any indication that the gfs/Nam has any clue what's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Interior ne ma probably place to be in NE in these gfs and nam runs. Not sure whether I'd rather be in BOS or Andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Props to GYX for the great discussion and well stated opinions on the storm. This is a well written disco...sounds like Oceanstwx, and if so, nicely done. SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM IS WELL UNDERWAY AT THE MOMENT. A STRUNG OUT...OR DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED S OF NANTUCKET CURRENTLY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE N. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD BUT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE AREA. KGYX DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A MELTING LAYER VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND...ROUGHLY NEAR 1000 FT. THIS MATCHES OBSERVATIONS WELL...WHERE SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS NEAR 1500 FT. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE N...THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WORK TOWARDS THE COAST. HAD TO USE A NON-DIURNAL CURVE TO TREND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT WE ARE ALSO MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG NNE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL ZONES. THE 01/12Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS FOR SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. COASTAL ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST...AND WRAPPED STRONG WINDS INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MIDCOAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ME. THE AMERICAN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS STEADFASTLY IN FAVOR OF BRINGING SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST...BRINGING STRONG BANDING POTENTIAL INTO INLAND ZONES. HOWEVER...THE CMC AND ECMWF PREFER TO PLAY THE DEVIL/S ADVOCATE. THE CMC IS MOSTLY WIDE RIGHT ON THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE...AND THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FARTHER W. EXAMINING THE ECMWF UPPER AIR FORCING...THERE MAY BE SIGNALS THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE COAST IS POSSIBLE. THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE ESPECIALLY IS WITHIN THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS...AND JUST TO COOL SIDE OF THE STRONGEST DEFORMATION. TO THIS FORECASTER THAT MEANS QPF COULD BE FARTHER NW THAN THE ECMWF CURRENTLY INDICATES. THUS THE POP AND QPF FORECAST REPRESENTS A 60/40 BLEND IN FAVOR THE AMERICAN MODEL GUIDANCE. SOUNDING ANALYSIS FROM ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES EVEN VERY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...950 MB...REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SNOW...UNLESS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER. HOWEVER...THIS IS UNLIKELY...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW GUIDANCE. EXPECT THAT FOR THE MIDCOAST...THIS IS A MAINLY SNOW EVENT...AND IT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE SEGMENTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING...AS THIS SNOW WILL START LATER BUT FALL HEAVIER THAN AREAS FARTHER N. GIVEN THE BANDING SIGNATURE...CANNOT RULE OUT 1 INCH/HOUR RATES. DESPITE THE EARLY SEASON NATURE...THAT TYPE OF SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY EVEN ON ROAD SURFACES. IT WILL ALSO BE WETTER IN NATURE...AND LIKELY STICK TO ELEVATED SURFACES. EVEN IF TOTALS FALL SHORT OF 6 INCHES...EXPECT THAT SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON AND THE HEAVY...WET CONSISTENCY OF THE SNOWFALL...HAVE DECIDED THAT A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN THE BEST INTEREST OF THE PUBLIC. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS WHILE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE IS UNDERGOING RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF ME AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES OCCUR. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A 6-1O HR WINDOW OF DEEPER MIXING AND WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA FROM COASTAL MAINE TO SOUTHERN NH. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER...ESPECIALLY IF STORM TRACKS FURTHER W...EXPANSION OF HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 35F. Getting close 36 or even 37 is "snowable" given heavier fall rates... I have actually seen rain/snow mix at 39 in heavy synoptics, and grapple showers at 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I still have some trouble buying the GFS 100%. I wish some other models agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Hearing some pretty definitive no snow at all in eastern mass calls from local news mets. Pretty bold considering how close it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Is the JMA on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 I still have some trouble buying the GFS 100%. I wish some other models agreed. 18z NAM pushes the precip band a little more west and then north then the GFS but I think there are still some issues with the UL properties to hold that at 100% either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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