ma blizzard Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Models should trend towards a final solution as the remnants of Ana come onshore over the next 24-36 hrs. Minor changes in amplitude / timing of of this feature will wreck havoc with phasing/interaction with the polar s/w that dives s/e right behind it. Looks like an interesting weekend regardless with the potential for first flakes, strong winds (biggest concern?), and the first region wide freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 If I had the choice between the GFS 60 knot gusts or flakes in the air.. I'd take the winds and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I think a plausible outcome, regardless of what's currently modeled, is flakes in the air for many folks with accums contained to northern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Boy the 12z GGEM was close to a big run. It diggs the trough all the way to the Eastern Gulf. Just too progressive to turn the corner fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I think a plausible outcome, regardless of what's currently modeled, is flakes in the air for many folks with accums contained to northern NE. The lock in any of this is the cold and end of growing season for many. If something like the GEFS happens, it's probably like what you mentioned. That's probably a good starting point. I absolutely would not fall in love with the GFS or Canadian op at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 The lock in any of this is the cold and end of growing season for many. If something like the GEFS happens, it's probably like what you mentioned. That's probably a good starting point. I absolutely would not fall in love with the GFS or Canadian op at the moment. Would you choose the damaging winds or flakes in the air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 37F windy rain for Maine's deer season opener on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Would you choose the damaging winds or flakes in the air? If it were 35-40kt wind or flakes..I'd rather see flakes. 40kt winds are a dime a dozen around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The lock in any of this is the cold and end of growing season for many. If something like the GEFS happens, it's probably like what you mentioned. That's probably a good starting point. I absolutely would not fall in love with the GFS or Canadian op at the moment. Yeah, but a pretty short lived cold... 3 days? of below is pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The subtitle to this thread reads: "Flakes and wind and cold all possible". I guess rain or a whiff are beyond the realm of possibility. Nice day out there today. 53.5/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The subtitle to this thread reads: "Flakes and wind and cold all possible". I guess rain or a whiff are beyond the realm of possibility. Nice day out there today. 53.5/40 The occurance of flakes doesn't eliminate rain....pretty common actually to get rain in any late Oct/early Nov system that also brings flakes. The system could whiff, but at least some folks would almost certainly see flakes anyway from the upper trough...most likely NNE mountains...but even the general interior too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 GGEM was way N with the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Euro pretty interesting for interior SNE...verbatim that's def some accumulating stuff in high terrain. But take your salt at 132 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Happy birthday Kev, you want it you got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Close to something big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Took a look at the euro, if you are in a coastal area, really focus on the fact will said interior. Doesn't look even close @ the coast to me yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Blow the mice out of the snowblowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Close to something big I'm not sure an actual big storm is even attainable unless we cut down on the wave interference. The inverted trough version seems to be the big favorite at the moment...and those can end up hundreds of miles from model progs at this point in the forecast. At least the models are semi-interesting to track again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Well it sounds like the Euro is the elevation storm so many folks have been waiting for. You know it will never play out like this..Just plan on a wintry appeal with the the air filled with flakes at soccer this weekend. Decent backside winds on Euro too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I'm not sure an actual big storm is even attainable unless we cut down on the wave interference. The inverted trough version seems to be the big favorite at the moment...and those can end up hundreds of miles from model progs at this point in the forecast. At least the models are semi-interesting to track again. I would rather see the models lose the inverted rough idea we all know how those pan out usually not very well until right at go timeSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 34m 12z ECMWF with a rain to snow scenario across SNE Saturday PM...followed by lots of wind and cold for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I'm not sure an actual big storm is even attainable unless we cut down on the wave interference. The inverted trough version seems to be the big favorite at the moment...and those can end up hundreds of miles from model progs at this point in the forecast. Inverted troughs suck for forecasting haha...can't even take those to the bank 12 hours out with good model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If that lead s/w didn't yank it east, that would be a heck of an event. Still rain to snow for most on this run even BOS if 925 temps were to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The occurance of flakes doesn't eliminate rain....pretty common actually to get rain in any late Oct/early Nov system that also brings flakes. The system could whiff, but at least some folks would almost certainly see flakes anyway from the upper trough...most likely NNE mountains...but even the general interior too. I bet Pete sees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I bet Pete sees snow. A few flakes are pretty "meh" on Nov 1. Accumulations are another thing entirely. Would not be shocked to see a little snizzle (hate that term) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 A few flakes are pretty "meh" on Nov 1. Accumulations are another thing entirely. Would not be shocked to see a little snizzle (hate that term) Yep, a few flakes for 11/1 over the interior elevations is pretty average actually. ORH has had 29 years since 1950 where first flakes occured in October or earlier (Sept 30 in 1992). So that is 46% of the time...almost a 50/50 proposition to beat 11/1. Go a little higher up in the Berks or N ORH hills/Monads, and the prospects likely improve to higher than 50/50. So first flakes in the air this year on 11/1 would be quite normal actually...get us an inch or two and it definitely becomes rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Yep, a few flakes for 11/1 over the interior elevations is pretty average actually. ORH has had 29 years since 1950 where first flakes occured in October or earlier (Sept 30 in 1992). So that is 46% of the time...almost a 50/50 proposition to beat 11/1. Go a little higher up in the Berks or N ORH hills/Monads, and the prospects likely improve to higher than 50/50. So first flakes in the air this year on 11/1 would be quite normal actually...get us an inch or two and it definitely becomes rarer. The first 5 or 6 days of November it always seems mild..Never any snowfalls that i recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Definitely sharper and further SW at 500mb when comparing the 00z EC ensembles to the 12z EC ensemble. One would think first flakes is a pretty good bet at least for the weekend in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If that lead s/w didn't yank it east, that would be a heck of an event. Still rain to snow for most on this run even BOS if 925 temps were to be believed. Yes, Get that out of the way and someone would be in business, Don't know if that will be the case though as it has that trough appeal look right now which makes this way more complex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 11/4/55. I remember several inches of snow fell. This was NYC/NJ/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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