dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 The sfc low develops on the baroclinic zone well offshore with a weaker vortmax...consolidating all of that will be a tough task. However, if one is looking for accumulating snows this early, you definitely want to see a deep ULL which is showing up on just about all guidance...so at least that ingredient is there. We'll see if the placement cooporates as we get closer. Its to far to the east as you say, I don't know looking at that if we can dig the ULL far enough south to help out with that, When it all does finally come together its long gone over Nova Sotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 One thing seems to show up on just about every piece of guidance/outcome you look at. Some very strong winds are going to occur region wide. Whether it goes north or bombs south of our latitude..There seems to be a long duration wind theme of 45-55mph with higher gusts possible.. There might actually be more confidence in that than flakes flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Yeah, just a week after Sandy, Mike Seidel was back in Point Pleasant Beach NJ covering a snowstorm. I'll never forget watching that on TWC... but parts of CT also did quite well. 11.7.12_snow.png Yeah that was a good little storm for us. There was another snowfall that week too for the interior. I think it was 3 inches from 1 and 7 or 8 from the other. But the period of Nov 1-6 is virtually snowless in SNE history.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 lol a different solution for every run of the GFS. It was close to something much bigger for eastern New England (including eastern SNE just to be clear ha ha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Yeah that was a good little storm for us. There was another snowfall that week too for the interior. I think it was 3 inches from 1 and 7 or 8 from the other. But the period of Nov 1-6 is virtually snowless in SNE history.. That was the beginning of the I-84 winter...you seemed to be in the wheelhouse of most events in '12-'13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Finally got a good look at Euro Ens, wow and similar spread SW again. Would be awesome if this emerged over the Delmarva at 522. Looking at the individuals, seems like some are wrapped up, some are spread far east. None south of NJ though, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 One thing seems to show up on just about every piece of guidance/outcome you look at. Some very strong winds are going to occur region wide. Whether it goes north or bombs south of our latitude..There seems to be a long duration wind theme of 45-55mph with higher gusts possible.. There might actually be more confidence in that than flakes flyingmeh, strong winds are a dime a dozen in Nov, give me some whiteout squalls with those winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Looking at the individuals, seems like some are wrapped up, some are spread far east. None south of NJ though, unfortunately. you are looking at the surface NOT 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 lol a different solution for every run of the GFS. It was close to something much bigger for eastern New England (including eastern SNE just to be clear ha ha). Thank you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 meh, strong winds are a dime a dozen in Nov, give me some whiteout squalls with those winds.This isn't a squall setup. It's either a steady snow band or flurries depending on location. Bigger deal most likely willbe wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Confidence increasing for at least flakes for some folks, along with the coldest air of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 you are looking at the surface NOT 5h Just referencing the tip of the delmarva surface idea. H5 is pretty sexy for you guys. Makes me think the strung out look on the 18z gfs was a tad too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Just referencing the tip of the delmarva surface idea. H5 is pretty sexy for you guys. Makes me think the strung out look on the 18z gfs was a tad too progressive. sorry for not clarifying I was referencing 5H spread. Very early anyways, just super interesting model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I find the overt conservatism as much a defensive mechanism as it is almost humorous... You got a -3SD mid level temperature anomaly combined with 130kt 500mb jet core cutting just quintessentially S by 1.5D lon/lat and it's 'things look better for at least some flakes in the air...' Sure, if you got novacaine on the brain. Jesus, we'd need a comet impact around here to gain justifiable attention. OR, folks could just admit to being excited, in equal measure to what is implied there. Anyway, the next 7 days of stuff is all heavily rooted in teleconnector support and I have no reason to believe that even deeper solutions are not going to verify. I find the weaker systems to be the at odds, with governing signal, and I don't have any compunctions about seeing a solid snow storm for everyone away from ocean influence out of this weekend. If it doesn't happen? hang - me. I've always called these things the way I see them and let the chips fall where they may, and have a pretty darn good batting average at that. We'll see... My only caveat is too much progressive character to the flow. There seems to be a lack of -NAO type blocking down wind of our lat/lon in general, and that's really allowing the deepest amplitude to foist east as though completely unlimited to planetary wave dynamics. See ya! You're biggest issue here is two fold: 1) As usual... models key in on some weak impulse out over the Gulf stream, and then tries to "steal" thermodynamic power from being infused into the best mechanical forcing when it arrive via that ridiculously powerful jet max deal... Heh -- that's usually (but not always) false, and you see future guidance' tend to start favoring the western solution. Classic kink back mock Norlun set up with these runs showing the internal turmoil over what in the hell to do with all that... 2) Speed of deep layer trough translation; in fact, you slow the whole of that thing down even six hours inside of the pan of that depression and you get a decent attack on eastern sections. And mind you ... for me SSTs are not likely to be an issue with that sort of system, because upon correcting for a more western dominant lower llv vortex response, you got flow there that N with moderate QPF. That's got the old lock the CF into Brockton look to it to me. Dec 2003 did that. But even I am reluctant to go too detailed at 130 horus... If I did not see the governing/surrounding mass fields in support for a big perturbation/event from the OV-MA-NE regions some 3 or 4 days ago, then turn into modeling runs like today's TREND ... I would not be this direct. But from where I am sitting this potential is being wantonly understated. Not predicting the end of the world... not even close... But can assure you, what is signaled there is well more than "flakes in the air" by a substantially large margin. whatever. More southern stream involvement is still somewhat of a wild card, btw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 500 low over your head can be some CU and a few flakes too. Literally. I wouldn't get a chub over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 This isn't a squall setup. It's either a steady snow band or flurries depending on location. Bigger deal most likely willbe windwind really doesn't look crazy, what are you looking at? Imho IF a 522 thickness passes just to our south there indeed will be instability squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If the first s/w sparks a low way east like some models have, then the second low may not do much except to give some TCU and flurries. You have to respect the uncertainty right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 500 low over your head can be some CU and a few flakes too. Literally. I wouldn't get a chub over it. Sorry .. this sounds like a down spin. truth? "500 low over your head can be some CU and a few flakes too" sure! In April, when ULLs rot and there are no 110kt jet cores ripping into the underbelly right through climate central, ripping a frontogenic potential (not to mention) out of hades it's self. Not for me. The surface dictions are incorrect and the QPF is under modeled as an almost immediate correction requirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 wind really doesn't look crazy, what are you looking at? Imho IF a 522 thickness passes just to our south there indeed will be instability squalls.If it cranks up into the gulf of Maine like modeling shows , with the high where it is,, it's showing one hell of a gradient and we'd all rip 55-60 type gusts with ease.. And any flurries or snow showers would be more of a novelty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Tip has a good point, it's almost the antihype is the antithesis to the FB high school kids hype. I see things like "not uncommon in Nov", "not going to happen""really? because I don't remember too many Nov 1s with a closed 520 ish deep vortex. Even if no synoptic system develops this evolution on Nov 1 is far from run of the mill. The Euro Ens look is pretty sweet. One only has to look back at Oct 11 to read the same kind of meh attitudes on day 6. Not saying this is Oct 11 but the naysayers were out in full force until the evidence was too much to ignore. There is a middle of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Sorry .. this sounds like a down spin. truth? "500 low over your head can be some CU and a few flakes too" sure! In April, when ULLs rot and there are no 110kt jet cores ripping into the underbelly right through climate central, ripping a frontogenic potential (not to mention) out of hades it's self. Not for me. The surface dictions are incorrect and the QPF is under modeled as an almost immediate correction requirement. Because it all depends. An H5 low moving down over you could be a period of rain showers changing to snow showers. It depends on RH. I'm not saying to expect that, I'm throwing that out there to some in case they believe it means numerous squalls and 2-4". In this case, if it moves just a bit south of SNE, it could mean a lot more...but to simplify this by saying H5 low overhead..."oh my"..etc. isn't very fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 If it cranks up into the gulf of Maine like modeling shows , with the high where it is,, it's showing one hell of a gradient and we'd all rip 55-60 type gusts with ease.. And any flurries or snow showers would be more of a noveltyMeh. It'll probably be the usual high end 35-40kt gust type deal which is really nbd with NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Down slope dandy out of the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Because it all depends. An H5 low moving down over you could be a period of rain showers changing to snow showers. It depends on RH. I'm not saying to expect that, I'm throwing that out there to some in case they believe it means numerous squalls and 2-4". In this case, if it moves just a bit south of SNE, it could mean a lot more...but to simplify this by saying H5 low overhead..."oh my"..etc. isn't very fair. I don't see that evolution.. The Vmax goes underneath in all, and a few guidance' types and there ensemble members, do close the 500mb contours off S enough -- I see it unwise to relegate one's perception to that narrow of a vision. Heh, we'll see. Hey, look at it this way: at least it isn't April 1 when having this discussion... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I don't see that evolution.. The Vmax goes underneath in all, and a few guidance' types and there ensemble members, do close the 500mb contours off S enough -- I see it unwise to relegate one's perception to that narrow of a vision. Heh, we'll see. Hey, look at it this way: at least it isn't April 1 when having this discussion... haha Well the euro ensembles swing it overhead and then into Maine. Again, I'm not suggesting one or the other, but sometimes H5 lows moving overhead don't do a heck of a lot unless the surface low is deepening. Pretty much fact. Now could we get this to tickle south along with a deepening low? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 Well the euro ensembles swing it overhead and then into Maine. Again, I'm not suggesting one or the other, but sometimes H5 lows moving overhead don't do a heck of a lot unless the surface low is deepening. Pretty much fact. Now could we get this to tickle south along with a deepening low? Sure.Which is precisely why high winds may be the big deal here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Because it all depends. An H5 low moving down over you could be a period of rain showers changing to snow showers. It depends on RH. I'm not saying to expect that, I'm throwing that out there to some in case they believe it means numerous squalls and 2-4". In this case, if it moves just a bit south of SNE, it could mean a lot more...but to simplify this by saying H5 low overhead..."oh my"..etc. isn't very fair.except the amount of vorticity determines a lot. If you think I am that much a simpleton..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 except the amount of vorticity determines a lot. If you think I am that much a simpleton..... Yea and no. It's the advection of it. Weenies will get defensive I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yea and no. It's the advection of it. Weenies will get defensive I guess.Condescend much? Weenie this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yea and no. It's the advection of it. Weenies will get defensive I guess. Exactly and when you have a cut-off overhead there's not much Vorticity advection lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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