RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Not even a day into this and i have had enough, Rain bores me, Get me to Dec-Jan then bring it Yea, I do like seeing the words "vertically stacked"....but 60 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 It's been obvious for days now that Maine would get qpf max. Models today are hinting at a secondary max right over eastern mass now, definitely enhanced by some instability involved. 0z GFS is on board for that. GFS and NAM both have spot 3" or 4" somewhere e mass. An interesting blob of convection or a firehose of some type spiraling up to the area from south of sne seems to be a feature showing up on multiple models. You can see it well on the NAM and even rgem. Rockport, Plum Island, Salisbury Beach would be fun areas to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 To be fair, the GFS/NAM/ECMWF all show two areas of potentially very heavy rainfall, one just north of Boston and the other somewhere south of NYC. Whomever gets under those bands could see some 1"+ per hour rates in heavy convection. Seeing the Euro spit out 5-6" totals when that model is historically on the drier side raises a red flag. You raise a valid point there. It's a historically conservative model with QPF (hence the better verification scores). When it starts chucking run after run it's time to take notice, a la February 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Some signs of CF enhancement possibly in this storm, although it's so wrapped up. it probably is more like a back bent type warm front. Still, you can see it in the QPF fields. Weenie graphic for the visual learners out there. You can see the warm air aloft in the theta-e profile, but like you say rather than a traditional TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) this warmth extends to the surface making a bent back warm front. You can also see the coastal front enhancement as a result. That should help rain pound for a period. Edit: Xsect cut from BML to FMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I wonder if BOX is considering extending a flood watch to at least essex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The king says another 3-4" coming for coastal Maine over the next 48 hours. Not bad considering we already have 0.96" in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The king says another 3-4" coming for coastal Maine over the next 48 hours. Not bad considering we already have 0.96" in the bucket. PWM with 1.62" already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 PWM with 1.62" already. The Euro has been pounding the coastal front enhancement idea for several runs now. So far it's holding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Euro was 2-3" e ma , 2-5" coastal maine. Windier down even to south shore of mass now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 pretty meh so far in the BOS area. a couple light showers, that's about it. No wind to speak of either. i am assuming things will pick up as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 pretty meh so far in the BOS area. a couple light showers, that's about it. No wind to speak of either. i am assuming things will pick up as the day goes on. Yes. Euro is defnitely lighter than the GFS with 1-2" for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Boy the euro is crapping the bed again with QPF down by NYC. It's had some real farts lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 We may end up not seeing much rain at all in CT and south of pike..a lot of products have an inch or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Decent breeze at home with elements of chilly rains at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The mesos models including SPC WRF really have some heavy rain from this area on north. We'll see how well it verifies, but I do believe some areas nearby and esp maybe Essex county could get dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 Noyes just showed a graphic with wind gusts to 50mph tonight for BOS and 40+ to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Noyes just showed a graphic with wind gusts to 50mph tonight for BOS and 40+ to ORHmSome will gust close to that, esp Essex county. But it will be windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Impressive death band south of nyc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Ocean effect rain moving into Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Definitely windy here. Leaf disaster by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 What a f-ed up storm...thunder here since 2:30 and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 1.55" in the Stratus guage from 6:00 am 10/21 to 6:00 am 6/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Ocean effect rain moving into Boston. Steady light rain all the way back here for awhile now. Lots of bridge jumpers if this storm was in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I'm underwhelmed by the .01" I got yesterday and the .01" I've picked up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 Breaks of blue and peeks of sun and windy currently. 49.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Man pretty windy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Steady light rain all the way back here for awhile now. Lots of bridge jumpers if this storm was in january Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2014 Author Share Posted October 22, 2014 Weeniemodels.com I see nothing of the sort. Weeniemodels.com Click on BS and it's under fauxwindprobs. Models have BOS gusting up to 45-50 mph for like 36 hours Not a bad call it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Off and on light rains in Wrentham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Not a bad call it appears It's a horrible call. You claimed for 36 hrs. I said we will get it for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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