Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Up over 0.8" now. Flood Watch just issued for SE MA/CC/Islands. FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA202 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT....A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVYRAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTSOVERNIGHT. THE POSSIBILITY OF A RELATIVELY FAST ACCUMULATION OF3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXISTS LOCALLY WITHIN THE WATCH.MAZ017>024-020215-/O.NEW.KBOX.FA.A.0006.141001T2100Z-141002T1200Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET202 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BARNSTABLE...BRISTOL...DUKES...NANTUCKET AND PLYMOUTH.* FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO HIGHRAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF ALOCALIZED 3-6 INCH AMOUNT IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2INCHES AN HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD YIELD URBANFLOODING ESPECIALLY AT TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.* IF THESE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE OBSERVED...LOCALIZEDFLOODING IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY URBAN AND STREET FLOODINGWHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. LOW-LYING AREA AND BASEMENT FLOODINGALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO...FLASHIER SMALL STREAMS MAYQUICKLY RISE.* NOTE THAT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH SUGGESTS SOMEUNCERTAINTY...AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALLMAY ULTIMATELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIALFOR THIS RAIN TO FALL IN URBANIZED AREAS WHERE IMPACTS COULD BEHIGH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THIS WATCH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Over/under for MVY at 11.43" in the next 30 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 A raw day in CT. Some places along Rte 2 corridor been getting pounded without much movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I'm kneeling down in hopes this flow backing happens in a couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 136 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 130 PM UPDATE... PERIOD OF RAIN BENEATH UPPER CUTOFF CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE REGION. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MODERATE AT BEST...JUST A GOOD SOAKING. OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE AND SHARPENING OF INVERTED TROF AND MODERATE 40+ KT LLJ LATE THIS EVENING WHICH COULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE SE MA AND RI REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD THEY SET UP. HOWEVER...NAILING THIS DOWN EXACTLY IS DIFFICULT THANKS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA MOVES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. COMBINED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEP LAYER OF LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN PLENTY OF COOL MOIST AIR IN OFF THE OCEAN AND PWATS ARE 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH NEEDED STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN SET UP. WHILE WE CAN/T DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. USED LOCALLY PRODUCED BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WILL REMAIN COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Please remember how ULLs produce come winter when everyone including models meh the setup. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Up over 0.8" now. Flood Watch just issued for SE MA/CC/Islands. Someone from PVD to BOS and SE is going to get clobbered with rain tonight. You can see that batch south of MVY/ACK has convective elements and seems to be building northward. If that envelopes SE Mass later today and sits there pivoting tonight, someone is going to add up the inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Someone from PVD to BOS and SE is going to get clobbered with rain tonight. You can see that batch south of MVY/ACK has convective elements and seems to be building northward. If that envelopes SE Mass later today and sits there pivoting tonight, someone is going to add up the inches. Yup. Exactly where that sets up TBD. There may be some sharp cutoffs if you're not under some of the bands but overall looks like a deluge is about to commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Bring back James Nichols. Yep. Gulf Stream fetish FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Bring back James Nichols. is he banned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 is he banned? He'll be back when the snow flies on Cape Cod,MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 is he banned? No, he hasn't been active since March of this year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Euro is super blah tonight for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Just back from a trek across the state to New Milford and back for a business deal ftw. New Milford is such a downsloping pit. Barely any rain out there..and just some sprinkles..but between there and here it poured. Got home and see we had .41.. Not a drought buster..but certainly a help. Hopefully more Saturday night with the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Euro is super blah tonight for eastern areas. You mean no 11" for MVY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Upslope is everything dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Upslope is everything dude. If it's not raining hard, must be down sloping. He talks more upslope and downslope than I do lately....and that's hard to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Euro is super blah tonight for eastern areas. How do you think it's handling this thus far? Seems like a lot of this is convectively induced so the difference between the haves and have nots may be huge. Up to about 1" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 If it's not raining hard, must be down sloping. He talks more upslope and downslope than I do lately....and that's hard to do Im not sure what you mean. They are right in Housatonic Valley and downslope terribly off the Litchfield Hills. In fact , the sun was visible at times thru the clouds today and it was 65 on the thermo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Im not sure what you mean. They are right in Housatonic Valley and downslope terribly off the Litchfield Hills. In fact , the sun was visible at times thru the clouds today and it was 65 on the thermo they were also on the western edge of the action today as well...just like here, we were lucky to get .25...Stamford, Norwalk had much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 For Saturday are we looking at showers or a stead rain? and what time of day? I ask as I am painting my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I miss COC weatherClown range euro op is pretty nice next week. I would take another week of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 they were also on the western edge of the action today as well...just like here, we were lucky to get .25...Stamford, Norwalk had much less. Yea...new milford does really well in the winter regardless of any sloping. Today, they were just too west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Euro is a torch around low-mid 70's for HFD Marathon on 11th. Let's try and cool that down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Euro is a torch around low-mid 70's for HFD Marathon on 11th. Let's try and cool that down That's good running weather as long as dews are down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 CC is gonna get soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Im not sure what you mean. They are right in Housatonic Valley and downslope terribly off the Litchfield Hills. In fact , the sun was visible at times thru the clouds today and it was 65 on the thermo I'm just ribbin' ya, haha. Just remember that forcing aloft has more to do with it than 500-800ft of lowest level ascent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 That's good running weather as long as dews are down.Lol no way dude. Low 50's is what you want. Luckily it starts at 8:00 am but 70's is way too warm for ideal running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Lol no way dude. Low 50's is what you want. Luckily it starts at 8:00 am but 70's is way too warm for ideal running how do you manage to run in the summer then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Steady-heavy rain all day, 50s, comfortable. I really need to get a rain gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.