TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 I think the euro is overdone with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 I think the euro is overdone with qpf NAM was pretty wet too, but it was further west. Sounds like the Euro screws me, although I'm in far eastern SW CT if that makes any sense so hoping to get something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 NAM was pretty wet too, but it was further west. Sounds like the Euro screws me, although I'm in far eastern SW CT if that makes any sense so hoping to get something here. Yeah Euro is heaviest in eastern areas but even decent rains back to HFD/HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Yeah Euro is heaviest in eastern areas but even decent rains back to HFD/HVN. what's the mechanism for all the heavy rain? The closed low in Western PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 Another widespread rain event on euro this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 what's the mechanism for all the heavy rain? The closed low in Western PA? Low forms south of LI and drifts south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 what's the mechanism for all the heavy rain? The closed low in Western PA? That closed low helps with some synoptic forcing with a jet streak underneath us placing us in the left exit region. You also get a nice low level jet to develop on most of the models out of the east which aids in moisture transport and low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 SE MA is the the place to be. Mother nature making up for lost time/rainfall potentially tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Well the boredom of the last 6 months is just about to end with several heavy rain events for ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 Probably more steady than heavy for a large part of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Maybe this is the beginning of the end of our dry spell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Man what a nasty cold shot on the Euro day 10. First freezes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 Maybe this is the beginning of the end of our dry spell? AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 What an odd looking radar today. One little band of sprinkles over Ct that keeps contracting and expanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Well the boredom of the last 6 months is just about to end with several heavy rain events for ENE Pattern change was well telegraphed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Well the boredom of the last 6 months is just about to end with several heavy rain events for ENE 12z GFS precip totals through 180 hours... Looks like it's most of the entire northeast from DC northward that sees a wet pattern develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 nam back off on rain on wed for ct `18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 nam back off on rain on wed for ct `18z run Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 ecens mean has 1"+ for E CT to ORH up to about Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 ecens mean has 1"+ for E CT to ORH up to about Ray. Is that the max? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2014 Author Share Posted September 30, 2014 ecens mean has 1"+ for E CT to ORH up to about Ray.sounds like ensemble mean is best way to go for qpf. That sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Is that the max? 1.50" up to about TAN and then 2" tickles MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 FWIW, the weeklies look to carry that pattern into the 4th week with some signs of extending the lower anomalies east into the GOA. It also has a pretty favorable look to Siberia and the snow cover IMO. If I were to guess...I would say the SCE/SAI would be favorable for us. I say that without having a ton of experience looking at previous patterns...but I don't see how that's a bad look, to both those metrics. The only thing that worries me a little about the SCE / SAI is that there has already been decent snowfall gains (similar to last year). It should be noted most of this snow extent spans areas north of 60 degrees N, so they aren't as of as much importance (depending on metric). Hopefully the weeklies have a good read on the upcoming pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 The weeklies look good in the 40N-60N band IMO for snow. That's an important geographical region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 GFS backed off quite a bit on rain amounts tomorrow. Almost looks orographic with more than .5 over the Berks and less to the east and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 There is a max in NE MA and SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 There is a max in NE MA and SE NH. Very typical for these inv trough scenarios. In winter Ct folks and you would be pissed as Ray over to Dendrite would end up with 8-14 while we'd get 3-5..Wagons NE it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Eh, it's your classic warm season troubles with inv troughs. I wouldn't go sweating too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Eh, it's your classic warm season troubles with inv troughs. I wouldn't go sweating too much.Safe to Say HRRR is going to bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 This is interesting. Kevin remember the recurve we discussed happening and 8-10 days later which in total time from our discussion is 14 days, well here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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