October Discussion

[TalcottWx]

Go.

[MainePhotog]

Looks like the NWS is thinking above normal temperatures for the month of October:

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let's see if we can start minimizing the amount of banter posts in the discussion threads and keep them in the Banter thread,  It's going to start getting more active around here in the upcoming weeks.

 

That being said, looks like a cool and damp/rainy start to October, starting tomorrow and possibly a better chance on Saturday.  

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not sold on a warm October...the ensembles are hinting at a big aleutian low and a somewhat classic cold El Nino October pattern trying to settle in.

 

Magnitude to still be determined on that pattern...but it typically leads to bouts of colder shots. Along the EC, we'll just have to see how much the W ATL ridge fights back as it dies off from the warm season.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm not sold on a warm October...the ensembles are hinting at a big aleutian low and a somewhat classic cold El Nino October pattern trying to settle in.

 

Magnitude to still be determined on that pattern...but it typically leads to bouts of colder shots. Along the EC, we'll just have to see how much the W ATL ridge fights back as it dies off from the warm season.

Mid month looks particularly chilly on the ensembles. Esp past Oct 10

[CoastalWx]

I think October could eek out AN here, but that's just a guess. I don't see a torch.  I do think the Plains have the best shot of BN, but that's fine. 

[Damage In Tolland]

THE PARTY IS OVER ...... MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING FOR OCTOBER 2014

September 29, 2014 at 7:44pm

STARDATE 201409.29 ....   First Officer's  log....

 

 

****   SIGNIFICANT   PATTERN CHANGE  COMING    ****    

 

•  RAIN/ STORMS LATE  ON   OCT 3RD .... MUCH COLDER  OCT   5-8  
•  MORE RAIN / SHOWERS  CHANCES OCT  8   and  OCT 12? 
•  MID OCTOBER   LOOKS COLD 

 

A

 

THE CHANGES THAT ARE COMING 

1. The medium and   long range weather models have an advertising this change for while.  A large deep troughi the jet stream is going to sweep through the   Upper Plains  and the Midwest  OCT  2-3.  The cold front at the surface will be quite strong and significant rain and thunderstorms are likely to form over the eastern Great Lakes ...Ohio ...Kentucky ...West Virginia....Eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina during these two days
2. The cold front will sweep through to the East coast --from west the east -- late  Friday afternoon and evening into early Saturday morning.  The front  certainly will have thunderstorms with its passage over western central portions of New York State western and central portions of Pennsylvania West Virginia the Shenandoah Valley southwest Virginia and Western North Carolina.  The cold front however will reach the East Coast on the predawn hours of Saturday and the thunderstorms may break apart crossing the mountains.   That being said the front  WILL bring SIGNIFICANT   RAIN  to the entire Northeast US.
3. Temperatures will tumble  behind the front and the winds will be quite gusty on Saturday but SATURDAY  the day time will be  DRY in all areas .. The high temperature on Saturday in some areas will probably occur between midnight and 2:00 AM.  Daytime temperatures on Saturday will be in the  50s over the mountains of the Northeast US  and 60s over the coastal areas and the big cities of I-95. 
4. Model data shows temperatures on morning of OCT 5 dropping as low as 45°  from north portions of central North Carolina all way to Boston  - including Richmond Washington Baltimore Philly  and NYC. Mid and Upper 30s  are LIKELY over the Shenandoah Valley as well as far Western North Carolina Mts  into   central and western PA ...western   and northern NY state.
5. Temperatures will likely be almost as cold on the morning of October 6...7...   and 8 ... throughout the Northeast with temperatures ranging from   47-50 degrees  over  the I-95  cities and  Low  to mid 40s over the interior and mountain areas.  Keep in mind of course is early October and the Sun is still fairly strong so daytime temperatures will recover back into the  60s . Low  70s over the coastal areas . 
6. A strong second piece of energy in the jet stream will swing through the Great Lakes and across the Northeast October 8th which will not only reinforce the cold air but could bring about snow showers to the eastern great lakes the mountains of West Virginia Southern Maryland Southern Pennsylvania and western and Central New York State. 
7. Longer range the weather models are becoming quite amplified and powerful looking as you go toward the middle of October.  The GFS  ensemble has a very amplified pattern which shows significant areas of below normal temperatures coming southward into the Midwest and the northeast by the middle of October.  This is also the case with the Canadian model.  The European models not quite as amplified and not as cold  but  even this model is clearly turning that way in showing large amounts of blocking patterns developing in the jet stream over Alaska the arctic region Greenland and Scandinavia.

 ONE LAST NOTE... the fact that   GFS ... CANADIAN  and EURO ensemble model data shows a Mid OCT  pattern that shows some similarity to the severe cold pattern we saw last winter ....may be viewed as a posiitive sign   (for those coutning  on  cold/ snow etc ... you sick  twisted  weather freaks !!!)) ).    BUT  there are many examples of cold patterns in OCT  that look  " very promising "    but do not last and break down in November  and / or December and the winter ends up being mild and with less snow.    

 

 

[CoastalWx]

We'll see. I don't see a big cold BN month here at all. The odds increase in the GL and Plains. In the winter, that pattern would be cold...but it doesn't look to have the same results here. My guess, -0.5 to +0.8.

[powderfreak]

We'll see. I don't see a big cold BN month here at all. The odds increase in the GL and Plains. In the winter, that pattern would be cold...but it doesn't look to have the same results here. My guess, -0.5 to +0.8.

I could see the immediate east coast being the warmest, while the Plains and Great Lakes are coldest. You can also get some nice downslope dandies on WNW delivery in October up and down the east coast. This time of year any cold shot dropped into the Plains or Lakes will modify before getting here, we need that cold to come straight in from Quebec to get the best departures from normal.

[ORH_wxman]

Analogs are showing pretty impressive cold Octobers...and pattern in general for the early part of the month:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's one reason I'd be hesitant to go warm for October. There are a couple warmer Octobers in that composite...most notably 1951 and 1991. But the overall composite is definitely cold if you rolled forward:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LR models like the CFS are still not excited about the idea for much cold in the CONUS though...but that type of pattern definitely suggests otherwise, so I'd probably lean colder than what the CFS has, but not as cold as the composite above.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that's a cold look. My guess is the thrust of the cold remains into Plains with shots of it over the east.  It has the look of some storminess over the east too which could modify temps based on storm track. I feel pretty good about this not being a torch..I just think we edge out on the milder side. IMHO I don't really care either way because the overall hemispheric pattern looks good which is what people should care about.

[powderfreak]

Yeah that's a cold look. My guess is the thrust of the cold remains into Plains with shots of it over the east.  It has the look of some storminess over the east too which could modify temps based on storm track. I feel pretty good about this not being a torch..I just think we edge out on the milder side. IMHO I don't really care either way because the overall hemispheric pattern looks good which is what people should care about.

 

Sounds like a fair assessment...near normal along the coast but dropping as you head towards the Plains.  Get some good cold shots in, but also if storms are tracking nearby you run the risk of those warm overnight mins and that sort of stuff to produce some departures to off-set the cold shots.  

[CoastalWx]

Congrats arrowhead of MN later this week.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that's a cold look. My guess is the thrust of the cold remains into Plains with shots of it over the east.  It has the look of some storminess over the east too which could modify temps based on storm track. I feel pretty good about this not being a torch..I just think we edge out on the milder side. IMHO I don't really care either way because the overall hemispheric pattern looks good which is what people should care about.

 

 

Yeah for winter, the pattern is setting up very nicely. The NPI should be very favorable at least for the first half of the month...we'll see how it evolves for the 2nd half. Hopefully it stays stout. A weakish El Nino with a -AO would be about the best combo we can possibly have for our region. A big favorable NPI in October would really increase the odds dramatically.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah for winter, the pattern is setting up very nicely. The NPI should be very favorable at least for the first half of the month...we'll see how it evolves for the 2nd half. Hopefully it stays stout. A weakish El Nino with a -AO would be about the best combo we can possibly have for our region. A big favorable NPI in October would really increase the odds dramatically.

 

FWIW, the weeklies look to carry that pattern into the 4th week with some signs of extending the lower anomalies east into the GOA. It also has a pretty favorable look to Siberia and the snow cover IMO. If I were to guess...I would say the SCE/SAI would be favorable for us. I say that without having a ton of experience looking at previous patterns...but I don't see how that's a bad look, to both those metrics.

[Brian5671]

anyone buying the 6z and 12z NAM's big dump on CT/LI/RI/Eastern MA tomorrow?

[Mike.Ventrice]

It's obvious we are going to see an arctic air mass intrusion across the Plains and East this week. But I'm skeptical of persistent cold weather over the East during the month of October as West Pacific tropical forcing tames down a bit mid-month. I'm thinking increased risk for the latter half of the month to end warmer than the cold start, giving a warmer than average aggregate look for the month on whole over the Northeast. 

[CoastalWx]

It's almost like a mid level deformation rain on the GFS tomorrow, esp central areas on the GFS. Like ORH to Kev.

[NaoPos]

I think the key here might be how the high lattitude blocking (whether it's the -NAO on the gfs, or the monster -EPO) can sustain itself, or are they transient? If they relax, and the PAC jet slams the west coast again, me might go Above for certain areas.

[blizzard24]

no rain on wed just like last week was forecast rain by nam and gfs we got nothing in ct .

[dendrite]

no rain on wed just like last week was forecast rain by nam and gfs we got nothing in ct .

Enjoy the rain.

[TalcottWx]

Why oh why are people posting DT garbage

[Brian5671]

Why oh why are people posting DT garbage

I know it's like a big circle jerk. NYC forum has a vendor thread at least so it's contained in one thread...might not be a bad idea here for all the JB/DT stuff and various tweets from this person or that person...

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM much less enthused about rain tomorrow with just scattered showers. Hard to toss it after it nailed last weeks non rain event

[CT Rain]

Euro is a soaker tomorrow

[Ginx snewx]

Euro is a soaker tomorrow

wicked pissah

[Brian5671]

Euro is a soaker tomorrow

All areas?  How much?

[CoastalWx]

On the road, but widespread?

[Ginx snewx]

HRRR is now operational

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRncep/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet&domain=t3&run_time=30+Sep+2014+-+13Z

[TalcottWx]

On the road, but widespread?

East of hartford/springfield special. Place to be looks like south shore. 3" Islands. 2+" Upper cape 1.5-2" Lower cape. 1-1.5"+ SE of BOS/PVD SE CT Line.  0.75-1" Almost regionwide aside from SW CT and NW Ma.