PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Good to get a confirmed dropsonde on the 977 there. That should clarify things pressure wise. Also to note on the latest pass is a slight uptick by 1 C in the temperature differential. With that said, FL winds are still only maxing out at about 85 KT...only a 1 KT increase from what we have seen previously. I'd like to see another pass from the NE quad before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I will just say that this is a heck of a satellite signature for a category 1 storm Best CAT 1 i have ever seen...Radar still not that great but improving Very odd how good it looks on visible and even the infrared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Perhaps it would of been good as precaution to extend warnings further south. It seems there has bit a jog more eat of north the last few frames. It should be enough to spare the coast line just to north of Arthur right now. Seems Arthur is behaving as expected over all and land fall will be further up and east of where it s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The eye of Arthur has become more distinct in visible satellite imagery this afternoon, although the overall radar presentation has changed very little. The latest flight-level and SFMR wind observations are 84 kt and 82 kt respectively. These data support maintaining the 80-kt initial intensity. I guess what the NHC is doing here is that they only round down with wind obs, not up. The last few passes also have been less impressive so that probably made the decision easier to stay with 80 knots. Either way its splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yea that is a little strange... especially given this wind swath. They are playing a bit of catch up with the last two or three advisories having to shift the track westward. I know they believe hard in the turn to the NE...but I don't think it's going to be sharp enough at this point for Wilmington to miss hurricane-force winds. I mean the center is literally 35 miles from Cape Fear and not showing too many signs of turning well enough. can't scare away the tourists That kind of claim is inappropriate and does not factor into the NHC's decisions at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Cape Fear's about to get the eyewall of a 90-mph hurricane and not be covered by a hurricane warning. Crazy stuff.Not really shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I took a break from this for a few hours and at some point Arthur clearly took a nice jog east, but over the past hour he definitely looks to be back heading due north or ever so slightly east of due north. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Hey man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I guess what the NHC is doing here is that they only round down with wind obs, not up. The last few passes also have been less impressive so that probably made the decision easier to stay with 80 knots. Either way its splitting hairs. Yeah so far that one 84 KT SFMR ob is the only surface wind in cat 2 territory. Everything else has been 82 or lower, solidly in category one territory which makes sense until the NHC sees more obs that can confirm a cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Radar presentation as def. improved in the past 1-2 hours, trying to filter the dry air out of the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hey man Hey, what's up man? It's good to be talking weather again! Haha, it's been a boring couple of months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Looks to me like the center took a solid turn to the ENE on radar the past few frames, but it's hard to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 As aforementioned, for the first time really in Arthur's life, we're starting to see pronounced outflow on the western side as the upper-level trough approaches and enhances divergence aloft. This should ultimately help the storm begin to intensify. Although landfall is in 12 hours or sooner, the Outer Banks are very swamp-like; it wouldn't surprise me to see this try to develop even as it moves ashore. We've seen tropical cyclones intensify in similar situations before, including Fay 2008 which intensified over Lake Okeechobee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah, it's always hard to tell in situations like this about the change of movement. I think two things are happening simultaneously here. As Arthur works to start to fill in that SW portion that was invade by the dry air, it gives the illusion that the center is moving further eastward than it actually is (as the center of the entire "clear area" shifts). In addition, if you try to follow the old, larger clear area to gather a broader direction of the cyclone as a whole, there is a *slight* eastward shift in direction. So when you combine those two, it looks to be moving way further eastward than it actually is (appearance is ENE due to closeoff, actual is probably somewhere around 25-35 degreesish). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Hey, what's up man? It's good to be talking weather again! Haha, it's been a boring couple of months...Yes it is definitely starting to get more interesting. The core is in pretty good condition and he's attempting to strengthen. As someone mentioned earlier, the interaction and friction of the land could help the core tighten and strengthen just prior landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah, it's always hard to tell in situations like this about the change of movement. I think two things are happening simultaneously here. As Arthur works to start to fill in that SW portion that was invade by the dry air, it gives the illusion that the center is moving further eastward than it actually is (as the center of the entire "clear area" shifts). In addition, if you try to follow the old, larger clear area to gather a broader direction of the cyclone as a whole, there is a *slight* eastward shift in direction. So when you combine those two, it looks to be moving way further eastward than it actually is (appearance is ENE due to closeoff, actual is probably somewhere around 35-40 degreesish). That makes sense, thanks for the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yeah, it's always hard to tell in situations like this about the change of movement. I think two things are happening simultaneously here. As Arthur works to start to fill in that SW portion that was invade by the dry air, it gives the illusion that the center is moving further eastward than it actually is (as the center of the entire "clear area" shifts). In addition, if you try to follow the old, larger clear area to gather a broader direction of the cyclone as a whole, there is a *slight* eastward shift in direction. So when you combine those two, it looks to be moving way further eastward than it actually is (appearance is ENE due to closeoff, actual is probably somewhere around 35-40 degreesish).Yes, at the time Julian posted, you could see that the latest clear area was also clear at the start of the loop. But it will start moving more east eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 That makes sense, thanks for the analysis. Yeah, no problem! I'd edit that to say more like 25-35 degreesish. I probably should have my protractor out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Best guess is Landfall in Beaufort/Morehead City in 6-7 hours Even with better organization that's not enough time for more than 5-10 mph increase in winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Best guess is Landfall in Beaufort/Morehead City in 6-7 hours Even with better organization that's not enough time for more than 5-10 mph increase in winds. I think that will be the east side of the eyewall the west side will be back near Swanboro the entire island of Emerald isle will get hit pretty good but I think if anyone is going to see gust to 100 its going to be the east end and out towards Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Wobble east shows here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It seems like that long line of storms marching due east across the SC midlands (MCS reinforced by downslope flow off of the Appalachians?) straight toward Arthur might be exerting a bit of eastward push on the body of air between it and the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 After that wobble east, Wilmington should finally solidly be on the west side of the system. I'd still say they could be in for at least hurricane force gusts, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Reed Timmer Facebook Post: Report from Frying Pan Tower !!! We just entered the eye of Arthur! Winds peaked at 99mph! NOAA Buoy #16 just slid past us heading towards the Wrightsville beaches! Don't think he is there but is just echoing what someone is telling him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Reed Timmer Facebook Post: Don't think he is there but is just echoing what someone is telling him. https://twitter.com/FPTower twitter feed from the tower. hope he gets some video inside the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Reed Timmer Facebook Post: Don't think he is there but is just echoing what someone is telling him. That tower is also 100 ft up, a heck of a place to ride out a hurricane..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Reed Timmer Facebook Post: Don't think he is there but is just echoing what someone is telling him. Correct. Here's a photo from the Frying Pan Tower posted about 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Correct. Here's a photo from the Frying Pan Tower posted about 30 minutes ago. That's awesome! Good to see some surface confirmation of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not too shabby of an afternoon development wise for Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Unfortunately arrives at Cape Hatteras right about high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Dare County EMS,Fire and Police http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/10989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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