NJwinter23 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Like Phil though, I wonder too what type of winds we have at the surface in that NE eye wall blow up taking place right now...50k ft tops...Arthur is looking pretty darn impressive visually from where we were a couple hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Like Phil though, I wonder too what type of winds we have at the surface in that NE eye wall blow up taking place right now...50k ft tops...Arthur is looking pretty darn impressive visually from where we were a couple hours ago They just did a NE/SW pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Extrapolation based on reconnaissance and radar data suggests a LF is likely near Beaufort, NC. I'm guessing 80 kt for the peak and landfall intensities. That would mean the NC coast will probably see low-end hurricane winds, which would be a bust on my end, but I may yet get the intensity right. (I've been saying 75-80 kt tops for some time now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Did euro being this west , i.e over east NC then close to cape cod. Only see 48 hr point close to east end of maine I don't understand this post. What path does the new Euro take the storm. Is it west? How for from Nantucket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 They just did a NE/SW pass Ah ok..they found nothing of note in that blow up? Either way, can't argue with what you're saying about the limited time here for Arthur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Significant dry slot is still evident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Ah ok..they found nothing of note in that blow up? Either way, can't argue with what you're saying about the limited time here for Arthur. The SFMR was slightly up to 82 KT, and the extrapolated pressure ever so slightly down, but basically the only improvement seen is with respect to it mixing out some of the dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 However.. Level Wind Direction Wind Speed987mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 89 knots (102 mph)986mb 95° (from the E) 88 knots (101 mph)984mb 100° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph)979mb 110° (from the ESE) 74 knots (85 mph)973mb 105° (from the ESE) 90 knots (104 mph)970mb 105° (from the ESE) 94 knots (108 mph)959mb 115° (from the ESE) 92 knots (106 mph)951mb 120° (from the ESE) 97 knots (112 mph)926mb 125° (from the SE) 88 knots (101 mph)917mb 130° (from the SE) 89 knots (102 mph)909mb 130° (from the SE) 96 knots (110 mph)899mb 135° (from the SE) 92 knots (106 mph)863mb 140° (from the SE) 91 knots (105 mph)855mb 140° (from the SE) 84 knots (97 mph)850mb 140° (from the SE) 86 knots (99 mph)801mb 155° (from the SSE) 80 knots (92 mph)775mb 150° (from the SSE) 66 knots (76 mph)696mb 145° (from the SE) 67 knots (77 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Significant dry slot is still evident. I say it makes it to 100 mph or so-I don't see a real chance at it getting higher than that. The dry air is just too tenacious and interrupting the core, and it's very close to land. These hurricanes that parallel the east coast always seem to have this problem with entrainment of dry air from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 In the latest radar frames the dry slot is shrinking and the eye is consolidating; http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Extrapolation based on reconnaissance and radar data suggests a LF is likely near Beaufort, NC. I'm guessing 80 kt for the peak and landfall intensities. That would mean the NC coast will probably see low-end hurricane winds, which would be a bust on my end, but I may yet get the intensity right. (I've been saying 75-80 kt tops for some time now.) I should also note that Carteret County is the hurricane capital of NC with the shortest return rate between 'cane impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 FWIW the SPC did give the TOR watch 60/40 probs... Even mentioning the possibility of a couple intense tornadoes... This doesn't surprise me given the storm is moving into a rather strongly unstable environment across the Eastern Seaboard that could support more robust cells than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 eye wall.png are those some 100+ velocities I'm seeing on the NE side, or are my eyes deceiving me? What tilt is this at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 19:08ZAircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11 Observation Number: 19A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 18:41:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33°02'N 78°12'W (33.0333N 78.2W) B. Center Fix Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the SE (140°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,902m (9,521ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 141° at 82kts (From the SE at ~ 94.4mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg) - ExtrapolatedI. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Closed M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 84kts (~ 96.7mph) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the S (174°) from the flight level center at 17:06:00ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 This doesn't surprise me given the storm is moving into a rather strongly unstable environment across the Eastern Seaboard that could support more robust cells than normal. 87/77 at Beaufort, NC with an ESE wind gusting to 23kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Temperature differential only 3 C on that pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 are those some 100+ velocities I'm seeing on the NE side, or are my eyes deceiving me? Yes. Highest currently is a few 103kt bins at 4kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Something happened to this mission planned to begin at 5:30pm? FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71A. 04/0000,0300,0600ZB. AFXXX 1401A ARTHURC. 03/2130ZD. 33.5N 76.8WE. 03/2345Z TO 04/0600ZF. SFC TO 10,000 FT Ooops... I was reading everything a day off. Looks like 3 hour fixes continue! My bad. However.. Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 987mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 89 knots (102 mph) 986mb 95° (from the E) 88 knots (101 mph) 984mb 100° (from the E) 79 knots (91 mph) 979mb 110° (from the ESE) 74 knots (85 mph) 973mb 105° (from the ESE) 90 knots (104 mph) 970mb 105° (from the ESE) 94 knots (108 mph) 959mb 115° (from the ESE) 92 knots (106 mph) 951mb 120° (from the ESE) 97 knots (112 mph) 926mb 125° (from the SE) 88 knots (101 mph) 917mb 130° (from the SE) 89 knots (102 mph) 909mb 130° (from the SE) 96 knots (110 mph) 899mb 135° (from the SE) 92 knots (106 mph) 863mb 140° (from the SE) 91 knots (105 mph) 855mb 140° (from the SE) 84 knots (97 mph) 850mb 140° (from the SE) 86 knots (99 mph) 801mb 155° (from the SSE) 80 knots (92 mph) 775mb 150° (from the SSE) 66 knots (76 mph) 696mb 145° (from the SE) 67 knots (77 mph) Well instantaneous surface wind says we have surface winds of at least 85 knots now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Pretty decent shift west with the 18z suite of models.Being on the west side of the storm we'll be fine here in Nantucket Sound. I wish this wasn't passing by us through the night though...surf at Nauset Beach around 1 AM will be wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Ooops... I was reading everything a day off. Looks like 3 hour fixes continue! My bad. Well instantaneous surface wind says we have surface winds of at least 85 knots now. Could be a gust. Other data doesn't support that as a 1-minute sustained average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Seems more northerly on radar the last 30 mins or so......sure looks like Wilmington and the beaches there are gonna get hit by the eyewall....they are not currently under a hurricane warning either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Models look like it is coming in near Morehead City/Beaufort and crossign the Pamlico Sound. OBX would be on the east side. That's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theredball Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Models look like it is coming in near Morehead City/Beaufort and crossign the Pamlico Sound. OBX would be on the east side. That's not good. He's homing in on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Radar presentation is looking poor. Eye not looking as good as a few hours ago. Edit: microwave presentation also degrading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Johnny Mercer Pier getting gust into the 50's http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jmpn7 This location on Oak Island should be jumping up soon as the eyewall rotates in http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ocpn7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Got to say I can't believe how little discussion there is in here, with a landfalling hurricane hitting the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Kure Beach visual (just south of Wilmington) - http://www.surfchex.com/kure-beach-web-cam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Got to say I can't believe how little discussion there is in here, with a landfalling hurricane hitting the US. I'm headed to PEI should be interesting up here!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 ILM area is about to get whacked with that band rotating in. seeing multiple WU stations in coastal locations with sustained 30-40 mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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