Guest Pamela Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 You can knock atleast 10 degrees off that once the seabreeze kicks in along the coast and LI Wednesday & Thursday (7/2 & 7/3) were extremely oppressive days in the Port Jefferson area...I did not get an outdoor daytime high...but the temp on the 2nd floor of my house reached 91 F both afternoons with the a/c not working properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Wednesday & Thursday (7/2 & 7/3) were extremely oppressive days in the Port Jefferson area...I did not get an outdoor daytime high...but the temp on the 2nd floor of my house reached 91 F both afternoons with the a/c not working properly.North shore is a different animal then here my friend im literally 5 minutes from ocean as i can see the robert moses causeway entrance ramp from my block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 These hot days still look like they will remain transient as the heat ridge continues to migrate back to the West over the major drought areas. It looks like the warm spots will reach low to mid 90s again early this week then fall back to the 80's for highs after a front moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 These hot days still look like they will remain transient as the heat ridge continues to migrate back to the West over the major drought areas. It looks like the warm spots will reach low to mid 90s again early this week then fall back to the 80's for highs after a front moves through. A.gif B.gif 20140701_usdm_home.png It's basically the same old pattern we have been in for a few months now as another push of Canadian air enters the region after a few above normal days http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=4e There are indications on GFS that the pattern does begin to change mid- month to allow the heat ridge out west to expand east without interruption from the north and we begin to see extended normal to above normal temps BUT the question is if this is a correct solution ? http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=8e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 It's basically the same old pattern we have been in for a few months now as another push of Canadian air enters the region after a few above normal days http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=4e There are indications on GFS that the pattern does begin to change mid- month to allow the heat ridge out west to expand east without interruption from the north and we begin to see extended normal to above normal temps BUT the question is if this is a correct solution ? http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=us&t=8e My guess is that the heat ridge wont be able to expand to the point that we saw from July 2010-2013. The trough over the Great Lakes to start this July is different from the other recent years. So I think that we see more of the same this month and Newark stays below 100 degrees. That trough has been stuck over the Great Lakes and Midwest since last August. The 12 July days that Newark reached 100 since 2010 featured a very strong ridge building over the Great Lakes. Newark July 100 day 500 mb composite since 2010 consisting of 12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Won't bother me at all if the "hot" days are low 90's. Anything over 82/83 bugs me especially when it's humid. I'm rootin' for the trough and CP air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 One would think that July is our best shot for having 90F+. That is due to the steady Moderate El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Don`t get use to the heat . Once past Friday the trough`s back into the lakes and by Day 10, The ridge returns into the GOA . If we don`t get the Ridge to retrograde the trough may stick around in the East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 cpc 6-10 showing a high chance at above normal precip in the east. wondering if that's based on the euro's amplified pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Dont worry the heat will be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 CFS V2 for the rest of July . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 If that forecast of a trough is correct then our hottest temps are happening now or have already happened and it won't get hotter than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 1PM Updates: TEB: 89 NYC: 87 EWR: 89 LGA: 88 JFK: 81 ISP: 82 New Brunswick: 88 TTN: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Don`t get use to the heat . Once past Friday the trough`s back into the lakes and by Day 10, The ridge returns into the GOA . If we don`t get the Ridge to retrograde the trough may stick around in the East . that's exactly what happens over the atlantic and the negative temp departures never make it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 that's exactly what happens over the atlantic and the negative temp departures never make it here I would be more comfortable if the ridge didn`t wedge its nose into the GOA . Need the PNA to break down so the trough doesn`t get stuck in the lakes and into the E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 that's exactly what happens over the atlantic and the negative temp departures never make it here Pending on the trough position but similar to this week, there is still heat building and expanding underneath the eastern sideof the trough/western edge of the WAR and up the coast. Most guidance builds heat in quick surges beyod the 9th. With the Next surge by Sunday. There are some hints the WAR really builds west in the 18th time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 2PM Roundup: TEB: 93 NYC: 88 EWR: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 80 ISP: 81 New Brunswick: 89 BLM: 90 TTN: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Mesoscale Discussion 1294 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...CNTRL AND NRN PA...SRN AND CNTRL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 071810Z - 071915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH...CNTRL AND NRN PA INTO SRN AND CNTRL NY. THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS PA AND SRN NY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA WHERE SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM NEAR BUFFALO NY SWWD TO COLUMBUS OH AND EWD ACROSS NRN PA AND SRN NY. SHORT-TERM HRRR FORECASTS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1 KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT AND COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MCD AREA. ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/07/2014 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40378016 40797791 41097514 41317366 42007333 42687353 43137448 42847737 42327964 41528117 41008158 40498132 40378016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 2PM Roundup: TEB: 93 NYC: 88 EWR: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 80 ISP: 81 New Brunswick: 89 BLM: 90 TTN: 86 So what's NYC's excuse for being behind LGA and EWR this hour? LGA and EWR are reporting more clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 3Pm Roundup TEB: 93 NYC: 88 EWR: 92 LGA: 92 JFK: 81 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 91 BLM: 91 TTN: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 92 here today should do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 So what's NYC's excuse for being behind LGA and EWR this hour? LGA and EWR are reporting more clouds. maybe it's time for the NWS to investigate NYC's thermometer. It seems like there's a power up in the sky that doesn't want NYC to break 90 (although we did only once) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 maybe it's time for the NWS to investigate NYC's thermometer. It seems like there's a power up in the sky that doesn't want NYC to break 90 (although we did only once) . We've been through this its not necesssarily the equipment as much as location. Ultimately its not the best reference for the NYC metro area from a media and news perspective. Anyway. Looks like 89 for the 5th time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 i am really liking severe chances early next week. could be a multi day episode with that trof running into the bermuda high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 maybe it's time for the NWS to investigate NYC's thermometer. It seems like there's a power up in the sky that doesn't want NYC to break 90 (although we did only once) . Or vegetation on the ground...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Central park just hit 90 afterall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 i was wondering if the vegetation in Central park causes the dew point to be higher?...I checked dew points around the area and they seam to be uniform... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Hit 92 today, with mid to low 60 dew points. Did not feel to hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Pending on the trough position but similar to this week, there is still heat building and expanding underneath the eastern sideof the trough/western edge of the WAR and up the coast. Most guidance builds heat in quick surges beyod the 9th. With the Next surge by Sunday. There are some hints the WAR really builds west in the 18th time range. Please, God no. I have a daytrip on the 19th to NYC. Last year around the same time, on such a trip, it was upper 90s under sun most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Please, God no. I have a daytrip on the 19th to NYC. Last year around the same time, on such a trip, it was upper 90s under sun most of the day. I would try and avoid NYC until September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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