40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It might depend on the exact track, but that's some cold air coming down. That seems like it would peg further south towards pym county. The GFS actually has an awesome ribbon of VVs from near where you are down to the south coast at 700mb despite QPF being a little less to the north. Yea, I was going to guess Messenger's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I could see snow sneaking into his area near dusk..but anything on Sunday for now seems minimal. Yeah, but, like, who cares. The bottom line is, what previous had a look of a strung out longer duration stretch of waves of snow with a larger one Monday is really now a Monday storm with maybe a passing snow shower or two the day before. Clinging to "but also snow Sunday" is just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was never really on the ledge. I just said if the storm came in like the GFS it might as well go all the way south. I think its more of a visceral reaction to portray the psyche of those residing in unfavored areas on modeling as unhealthy, regardless of whether or not its true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Heh...NAM is probably wrong, but it has ptype issues on Sunday S of the Pike anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Heh...NAM is probably wrong, but it has ptype issues on Sunday S of the Pike anyways. What we can glean from the past 12 hours worth of runs is that no portion of sne is being whiffed, AMT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh that NAM. Love the one run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Snow growth may not be that "epic" since there is a warmer layer from -8C to -10C in the snow growth zone..or area where we have lift. Might be ocean enhancement with those winds off the water though over pym county.just don't mention salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I could see snow sneaking into his area near dusk..but anything on Sunday for now seems minimal. Heh...NAM is probably wrong, but it has ptype issues on Sunday S of the Pike anyways. ...snow sneaking in with P-type issues south of Pike. I thought Sunday was really a non-event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh that NAM. Love the one run changes. Haha it had like no measurable from the main event at 00z. Although I will say this run that it is probably pretty close to correct in this winter's game of "Lets see how hard we can bone the northern half of Vermont relative to every other area." The NAM gets an A+ on this run, lol. We are getting some classic payback for destroying most other areas in snowfall the past like 8 seasons, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Oh that NAM. Love the one run changes. It basically tried to move towards the GFS/Euro idea but failed at its attempt, you can tell what it was trying to do though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It basically tried to move towards the GFS/Euro idea but failed at its attempt, you can tell what it was trying to do though Yeah it had no choice really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Very tilted compared to some of the other guidance And much different than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This storm is going to place many locations in ILL IND OH PA NY Northern NJ and CT near are very close to the all time record for the most snow to single season. And with all of the data extremely strong on the indication that the positive TNH pattern is going to last through the entire month of March... It's possible many these areas will break the all time snow records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL +TNH pattern. Who's feeding you all this stuff you have no clue about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wonder if DT will ever incorporate a snow map that isn't 100% euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I wonder if DT will ever incorporate a snow map that isn't 100% euro. Thats way too optimistic in PHL...I'd be amazed if they are not siginificantly sleet in this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL +TNH pattern. Who's feeding you all this stuff you have no clue about? What? Dt wrote that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 While juicy, the 6z GFS is quite meh on snow growth. I'd be hesitant to go more than 10 or 12:1 with that look. The best omega is located pretty far under the SGZ. In fact for the south coast the best omega is right around 700mb where temperatures are closer to -5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What? Dt wrote that I didn't know you quoted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It's basically like Noyes jumped into my head and started typing Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 1m Thoughts on Sunday night/Monday snow potential, including very early accumulation potential: http://ow.ly/i/4KhKb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Thats way too optimistic in PHL...I'd be amazed if they are not siginificantly sleet in this event It's a tough call. I'm always aware of the trends with these srn systems. At the same time, that's a hell of a PV to the north, but if it wobbles or changes orientation even a little bit..that's all it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 He mentions non-accumulating snow showers Sunday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This storm is going to place many locations in ILL IND OH PA NY Northern NJ and CT near are very close to the all time record for the most snow to single season. And with all of the data extremely strong on the indication that the positive TNH pattern is going to last through the entire month of March... It's possible many these areas will break the all time snow records. Decatur, IL, where I have family, is currently at 36.5" snowfall, 7th most since 1900. Their 3 biggest winters are 49.7", 47.8", and 42.6", and they're dead center in DT's 8-14" stripe. WSO in Lincoln is less sumptuous, currently thinking 6-9" there, but even that puts #3 in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 While juicy, the 6z GFS is quite meh on snow growth. I'd be hesitant to go more than 10 or 12:1 with that look. The best omega is located pretty far under the SGZ. In fact for the south coast the best omega is right around 700mb where temperatures are closer to -5C. Hours and hours of sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I really like DT's map as it relates to sne....echoes my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hours and hours of sand. Yeah no kidding lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 2 biggest reasons we're seeing the north trends are: 1) The arctic boundary slowing and not pushing as far south as it was on yesterdays runs 2) The PV weaker and not as far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A trend would be two or more runs...lets see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A trend would be two or more runs...lets see what 12z does. Can we hold hands while it rolls out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can we hold hands while it rolls out? Yes, and it looks like it may be south of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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