ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS def looks more suppressed than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS def looks more suppressed than 06z This is going to be an interesting battle between the s tream and the PV. Will be a fine line between continued progress toward a season of epicosity, and March 2006 agony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This is going to be an interesting battle between the s tream and the PV. Will be a fine line between progress toward a season of epicosity, and March 2006 agony. Yes...I do favor this nudging north despite what the GFS is doing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like crap. Who cares lol. GFS gets no weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like crap. But a "meteorologist" said that ptype issues were a greater threat to impact in this area than suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yes...I do favor this nudging north despite what the GFS is doing this run. Yea, I agree.....good event for all of sne, best s of pike. I won't waiver. I think I'll get around 7-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Who cares lol. GFS gets no weight It's stating what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS wow.. 2-4" for all enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yea, I agree.....good event for all of sne, best s of pike. I won't waver. I think I'll get around 7-8". Yeah the highest totals will probably fall right around 12-13 inches..We'll see some fairly uniform west to east totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yea, I agree.....good event for all of sne, best s of pike. I won't waiver. I think I'll get around 7-8". that seems reasonable at my office pool I've said 6-8" in burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 PV a little west and further south this run suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Sublimation Delight this run. Ukie is decent looking at least...looks a bit more amped than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 that seems reasonable at my office pool I've said 6-8" in burlington. Good call imo. I'd like to see this season end taking one final jab at history, but I won't complain if it doesn't. Nice season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Bluebird skies for me. Wheeee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yikes, that's a toaster bath or everyone unless you like light accumulations. That's a risk as we've discussed. I'd be more worried about seeing precip than precip Type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL, watch the euro be north...seems like that's what sometimes happens with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Yikes, that's a toaster bath or everyone unless you like light accumulations. That's a risk as we've discussed. I'd be more worried about seeing precip than precip Type issues. No it's not a risk..and noone has forecast that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not exactly scared by the GFS and neither should many especially south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 UKMET looked pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL, watch the euro be north...seems like that's what sometimes happens with these. I honestly wouldn't sweat it until 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 LOL, watch the euro be north...seems like that's what sometimes happens with these. I was thinking the same thing, but that feels more like wishful thinking at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not exactly scared by the GFS and neither should many especially south of the pike. Your words to the GFS ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I was thinking the same thing, but that feels more like wishful thinking at this point. Perhaps. It wouldn't be the first time though. It's really not worth letting one run make or break the weenie's Friday aftn. Gonna have to wait until the rest comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 UKMET looked pretty darn good. Until we see both the inter-model ensemble spread and multi-model ensemble spread decrease, its going to be difficult to make a lot of proclaimations about this system that aren't mostly guesswork. There's argument for both sides...the side that wants to argue suppression can say the PV is really strong, the side that wants to argue more amplification can point to southern stream gulf connection and springtime convection, pwats, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Until we see both the inter-model ensemble spread and multi-model ensemble spread decrease, its going to be difficult to make a lot of proclaimations about this system that aren't mostly guesswork. There's argument for both sides...the side that wants to argue suppression can say the PV is really strong, the side that wants to argue more amplification can point to southern stream gulf connection and springtime convection, pwats, etc. And both are valid. It will be interesting to see how it works out. While I wouldn't peg them to jack...I don't buy people like HubbDave looking at virga as the GFS depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Who cares lol. GFS gets no weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 so from the models which are more trustworthy this is the second time theres been a sig southern shift, one time gfs and the other day the euro...very interesting both models saw something similar each time i guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The waffling is what bugs me... if it is destined for my area to get a low amount, fine... but I would love to see one model be consistent. I think I need another day to expect that. Anyhoo... Euro might be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 While I personally think the most likely scenario (better than 50/50) is 6"+ south of the Pike the 12z GFS is certainly within the realm of possibility. That PV north of the border means business. Any slight change in orientation or a new "lobe" that develops on the models could mean curtains for this storm in parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.