Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Side note, should I be using DVN or ILX? Because I'm kinda right in the middle of like 3 of them, but the LSX doesn't quite do it for me. I'm in Peoria which is in the ILX CWA but look at LOT and DVN. ILX doesn't put near as much info in the AFD as the other offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z NAM Looks like a Michigan-Wisconsin special. Lol...This run drizzles on areas to the south that are modeled to get the heaviest snow/ice (GFS/GGEM/Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Classic Alek, spiking the football before the event even starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 TimChgo is clearly a loyal Channel 7 news guy. Classic Alek, spiking the football before the event even starts. Still have no idea what to expect here. Euro continues the theme of a graze job for LAF with the main/last piece...while the GFS is the most bullish with overall multi-day precip. At least my p&c doesn't have sleet likely right now. On a historical note, Indianapolis needs 6.0" to break their season snowfall record (52.3º now, record is 58.2º). Thus my rooting interests lies with them. DTW needs 14.7"....but they are already at #2. The gap between the archaic #1 & 2 is and always has been huge, as #1 has never even been threatened in the past 134 years until this year. It would be really nice if both places (as well as Chicago) can score because while this alone may not break the record for any of the above cities, any snowfall gets them closer and closer. Chicago seems a long shot for #1, but you never know., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Looks like a Michigan-Wisconsin special. Lol...This run drizzles on areas to the south that are modeled to get the heaviest snow/ice (GFS/GGEM/Euro). Didn't even notice that until you mentioned it. Southerly flow doesn't do much good for areas outside of the main band in Wisconsin as the DGZ isn't looking so hot. Makes me wonder what the ratios are really like... --- Any appreciable snow for Friday night is out it seems on the GFS. It's all on wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The NAM is worthless. Really bad performances from it for the past month or so. 12z GFS so far, coming in colder, south...a little drier. Comparing it to its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The setup initially here is almost a carbon copy of Jan 2, 1999. The massive difference is that rather than having the piece of the PV over western Canada drop down and phase with the stj wave, the PV s/w stays dominant and forces everything to shear out as it heads east. What a waste of potential. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0101.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The NAM is worthless. Really bad performances from it for the past month or so. 12z GFS so far, coming in colder, south...a little drier. Comparing it to its 0z run. yep re: NAM and continuing where 6z left off re: GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Congrats LAF this run. Still a good event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Congrats LAF this run. Still a good event here. Yeah, not bad. Looks like 8-10" here. Alas, I have no faith in any one solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hello boys and girls (if there are any), the Macomb boy is back, and holy crap. There are a few w omen on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 TimChgo is clearly a loyal Channel 7 news guy. Classic Alek, spiking the football before the event even starts. Still have no idea what to expect here. Euro continues the theme of a graze job for LAF with the main/last piece...while the GFS is the most bullish with overall multi-day precip. At least my p&c doesn't have sleet likely right now. On a historical note, Indianapolis needs 6.0" to break their season snowfall record (52.3º now, record is 58.2º). Thus my rooting interests lies with them. What can I say... I like Tracy Butler. WGN seems to think accumulation on Sunday, with light snow or "passing flurries" for Saturday., and then some flurries or light snow for Monday, they don't give any amounts, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 What can I say... I like Tracy Butler. WGN seems to think accumulation on Sunday, with light snow or "passing flurries" for Saturday., and then some flurries or light snow for Monday, they don't give any amounts, however. She was something in her heyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm hedging my bets on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm hedging my bets on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The setup initially here is almost a carbon copy of Jan 2, 1999. The massive difference is that rather than having the piece of the PV over western Canada drop down and phase with the stj wave, the PV s/w stays dominant and forces everything to shear out as it heads east. What a waste of potential. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0101.php I agree. 12z GFS continues with its trend of a miss for us on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The setup initially here is almost a carbon copy of Jan 2, 1999. The massive difference is that rather than having the piece of the PV over western Canada drop down and phase with the stj wave, the PV s/w stays dominant and forces everything to shear out as it heads east. What a waste of potential. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0101.php Huge waste of potential here. We have a nice GOA wave break going on as a piece of that PV is forced SW from Alert, NU. Still not so sure the models are correct with such aggressive retrogression/stretching of the PV lobe instead of a more typical split. This would force the western piece to end up sharper, weaker with more opportunity to dig. Definitely running out of time though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah, not bad. Looks like 8-10" here. Alas, I have no faith in any one solution right now. Me either. The extent of my confidence is that we're going to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 EURO back NW from previous runs. LAF does really well. Southern suburbs of Chicago does alright. .3-.4 for S. WI and N. IL about .3 for ORD. .6+ for LAF. .3 for Cyclone and DTW areas. Ohio/S. IN/C. IL and N. MO get hammered with 1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Sleet now uncomfortably close to LAF on the Euro (at least compared to previous runs). At least it actually has precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Sleet now uncomfortably close to LAF on the Euro (at least compared to previous runs). At least it actually has precip here. LAF is easily all snow this run looking at the raw data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LAF is easily all snow this run looking at the raw data I see blue's concern. The thermal gradient is tight and the 850 mb 0C contour gets north of IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The evolution of this seems somewhat similar to the January 4th storm. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Wave 1 drops ~1-3" through the GTA sunday morning on the 12z euro with highest QPF from goderich to niagara. Wave 2 stays mostly south of the border but is getting very close. Euro nudged north with the hudson bay PV lobe positioning so moisture/vorticity is able to move further NW over the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 At least the Euro stopped the southward bleeding we have had for the last day, so that is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I like where me and buckeye sit, but this far out that normally ends up being an IND special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The evolution of this seems somewhat similar to the January 4th storm. Correct me if I'm wrong. January 1-5 redux. March style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LAF is easily all snow this run looking at the raw data Yeah - I don't disagree, but it leaves us with little wiggle warm. I don't have thermal profile data for the Euro, but if it's anything like the GFS the warmest layer is at ~750mb which is several degrees C warmer than what's shown by the 0C 850mb isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Meh, too early for p-type concerns. If I'm going to worry about anything at this point, it's getting decent QPF in here...especially with the main wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.