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Chicago Storm

February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm

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GFS has been very consistent with respect to showing a solid W-E hit across the region. The Euro is starting to latch onto the idea as well. However the GGEM shows what could potentially happen if the polar vortex is too strong, as it suppresses the storm south and is weak too. It all depends upon the polar vortex location and strength as to how far north this can end up for the region.

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I knew boring wouldnt last long lol. I guess its a nice thing that Im more worried about suppression that mixing issues in March :lol: A little bit of fresh snow would do wonders for the current deep but icy/crusty snowpack. Looks like someone in this forum may get a nice snowstorm out of the deal.

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This is what I posted in the med/long range thread. I don't see any reason to change the outlook at this time.  At this time of the year the cold sinks to far south on the GGEM vs climo. 

 

"I've been watching the GGEM and GFS operational vs their ensemble mean forecast.  As we approach the 8-10 day period, their ensemble means show a southeastern ridge that is stronger than the operational runs.  The operational GFS up to the 23/0z run has been to slow to break down the ridge giving us up here a good snowfall.   The GGEM operational has been to fast to break down the ridge thus taking the storm track well to the south of this subforum.  The 23/0z run of the GFS now shows a big hit over the IA area, and I think that is close to reality.  After all, when we have had a cold dome of air over us this winter the track has favored ORD, LAF etc.  I don't think it will be any different this time around."

 

I think this is way to far south...

 

Edit this is a hot link and will change

 

SN_120-240_0000.gif

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Atta boy. My favorite thread starter.

18z GFS was a several day spread the wealth beauty.

 

4 18z gfs ensembles had 1+ qpf for Chicago. 4 had .25-.5 and 4 had .1-.25 that's not including the stuff on the 28th. 

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With the Euro acting like it wants to play ball with the GFS, Joe as the thread starter, and Alek zzzzzzzzzzzzing the pattern, this could be epic.

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With the Euro acting like it wants to play ball with the GFS, Joe as the thread starter, and Alek zzzzzzzzzzzzing the pattern, this could be epic.

Lock of the century, everyone get their shovels ready.

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Since we are doing bold Calls: Detroit area is getting it's biggest snowfall of the year with this system

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Since we are doing bold Calls: Detroit area is getting it's biggest snowfall of the year with this system

 

With this being a prolonged potential, someone is going to get a lot of snow, northern fringes will certainly have some good ratios too considering how cold it could be. It really looks like a good share the wealth type setup.

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I'm up for one last hooray. 

That high pressure to the north is going to have to back off a little in order to give this system an opportunity to go negative tilt.

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I'm up for one last hooray. 

That high pressure to the north is going to have to back off a little in order to give this system an opportunity to go negative tilt.

We don't need this to go negative tilt, if that happens it will miss most of us to the northwest, this is more of a flat wave.

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We don't need this to go negative tilt, if that happens it will miss most of us to the northwest, this is more of a flat wave.

this, flat wave just north of baroclinic zone, or along it

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Gotcha - 

 

Was thinking a flat wave wouldn't be much better than a glorified frontal passage. Last two winters that's what we didn't want.

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Gotcha - 

 

Was thinking a flat wave wouldn't be much better than a glorified frontal passage. 

 

Have you looked at the maps? I mean maybe you should before assuming something incorrect... It is a west to east moving wave, it isn't a stretched vort along a front.

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Since we are doing bold Calls: Detroit area is getting it's biggest snowfall of the year with this system

this storm will cause powerball to raise his winter grade to an A ;)

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Congrats Chicago and south, LAF will probably get blitzed.  I'll hold onto the last thread that is the 18z GFS Ensembles before these next several runs dash those last hopes.

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Have you looked at the maps? I mean maybe you should before assuming something incorrect... It is a west to east moving wave, it isn't a stretched vort along a front.

 

I've looked at them, but I didn't see it as a weak wave really. At least from a precipitation perspective.  

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I've looked at them, but I didn't see it as a weak wave really. At least from a precipitation perspective.  

It isn't a weak wave either... A decent wave can be flat as well, think of a bowling ball setup.

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Looks like a good potential for someone in the Midwest.  I might have jury duty next week...I wonder if not wanting to miss a snowstorm would be a valid excuse.  ;) 

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Hour 144 @ 500 mb notice the vorticity over the area.

 

gfsUS_500_avort_144.gif

 

Than look at the baro zone at 700mb

 

gfsUS_700_temp_144.gif

 

Now look at the strong diffluence at the 850mb level. 

 

gfsUS_850_temp_144.gif

 

looks like a very strong mid level disturbance to me, as a matter of fact, the models may be under doing the reaction at the surface to a certain degree.

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Yes, we don't need a wave to go super negative tilt. This is a series of waves rippling through the flow over the baroclinic zone with WAA up and over it to start which could produce several E-W bands of high ratio snows. Then the last one could have a little more potential as it ejects out feeding off the thermal gradient as it moves ENE.

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Congrats Chicago and south, LAF will probably get blitzed. I'll hold onto the last thread that is the 18z GFS Ensembles before these next several runs dash those last hopes.

This is getting annoying.

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gfsUS_850_temp_144.gif

 

taking a closer look at that area of difluence over Il and IN, the atmosphere is out of balance as the winds are separating over that area, in order for the atmosphere to remain in balance it has to replace that air from some where and that comes from the surface.  I wished the COD site had the 925mb maps and the Vertical Velocities, as I would suspect they would be huge.

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If this was a different year, I would assume this storm would miss Toledo or disappear. This year it feels like everything hits us, even storms 7 days out. As long as we get half an inch to break the seasonal record I will be happy.

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