Minnesota Meso

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  1. found that image here http://www.goes-r.gov/multimedia/dataAndImageryImages.html
  2. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=3638&y=5929&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=230&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=20170825052717&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider lets see if this works
  3. Looks like the modeling is backing off somewhat on the idea of a nuclear cap over the Upper Mississippi Valley for Sunday evening just after peak heating. 850mb temps are now progged to be somewhere around 20°c instead of 25 or 26 and 700mb temps have come down to around 11° c over the metro area of MSP. Some models are now showing convection firing off along the northern edge of the best instability in a area where shear and cape will be supportive of supercell formation. Would not be surprised to see the SPC in their 4-8 day outlook paint a 15% risk for an area near to MSP. I'm working during the next few days and will be challenged to follow things closely, so please don't wait for me to start a new thread for severe possibilities, but the chance is increasing for all modes of severe Sunday evening.
  4. With the strong omega block depicted via water vapor imagery I don' think a quicker solution is in the cards. A Cutter is likely into the western great lakes. Some where from the Dakotas to Eastern MN, Western WI could see a notable snowfall event. Notice I am not saying historical yet...... Eastern MN and western MN is a part of this sub forum, if we get what i think is possible with the track, the south eastern sub forum could be well under the gun for severe.
  5. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, buy it looks to me like the current driver is the strong -EPO ridge bleeding cold air over the next several days, causing the suppression.
  6. Upper level divergence over SW MN with a strong h85 low over Sioux Falls, looking like this could be an over achieve here in the MSP metro. Calling for 9-14, with a band of 14-18 from Mankato to just north of Rochester MN. I there is a error in this call, it may be that I'm a little low on the high side for the Metro, especially the southern metro.
  7. Will not ask for a link. However is this through 240 hours or say 84 hours? That makes a huge difference on how we define that map that you posted
  8. LoveSN+ There really shouldn't be any confusion at all. Andy was not questioning the validity of the science involved in selecting the analog years, nor was he doubting the accuracy of the winter forecast. What he didn't like was the results. For his area it looks like another year of warmer than normal temps with below normal snow fall. I know Andy is a fan of severe weather, but I really think he likes a good snowstorm or two over his area. Andy I hate to speak for you, if I'm wrong about how I interpreted your remarks please feel free to comment here.
  9. This is getting very interesting Saturday night close to the Twin Cities metro area. Given that often times the Nam has a slightly northern basis this far out....... \ http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CENTRAL_NAM212_ATMOS_STP-NEW_48HR.gif
  10. This was the day the MSP set it's all time record of 108°
  11. We got lucky here in Champlin, MN. No more than 1.5"
  12. Just posted on the Minnesota forecaster site that chances of a tornado seems to be increasing for the Twin Cities metro area.
  13. GFS has now come into the Euro camp. Will be surprised to see dews exceed 50° here at MSP (04/23 -24). I wouldn't be surprised if we have a major severe event to the south of us with moisture streaming out of the gulf, being forced to pool in the plains, especially if the Bermuda high is as strong as advertised and contributes more moisture coming in off the SE US coast as the western trough ejects out.
  14. I'm not so much worried about the ridge be shunted to the east. My major worry is the mid level Hudson Bay trough and what happens under neath it. If the low level flow is anti cyclonic it will likely force severe convection to the south, if the flow is cyclonic it would likely open us up for at least some kind of severe threat as the drying winds would stay north of us.