KokomoWX Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Indy would be a mess looking at the 6z GFS. Cobb data shows 5" snow, 1.4" of sleet, and 1/2" of ice. On the other hand, just to my north at Grissom, no ice, 1/3" of sleet and 17" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I feel pretty good too considering this winter all someone has to do is sneeze at a high enough altitude and we get significant snow. And with a crusty foot of snow already on the ground..it would be scenes that no one alive in this region has EVER seen in March. Only happened one other time, March 1900, with 26" snow depth (Detroits record depth). Not putting the cart before the horse though...consensus is growing, but this is still in model land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Indy would be a mess looking at the 6z GFS. Cobb data shows 5" snow, 1.4" of sleet, and 1/2" of ice. On the other hand, just to my north at Grissom, no ice, 1/3" of sleet and 17" of snow! 14.7", with some taint, for LAF. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Kind of surprised at Tracy Butler's forecast for this week, showing snow for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Last forecast I had seen, showed "some snow" for Saturday. Looks like GFS keeps a bulk of the precip south, but the long duration could be good for at least 6" across N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Including Friday night in this thread? 12z NAM with 3-6" across IA into IL and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Looks like GFS keeps a bulk of the precip south, but the long duration could be good for at least 6" across N IL.Might want to look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 We're good on snow up here...go south please... Cyclone needs more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Kind of surprised at Tracy Butler's forecast for this week, showing snow for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Last forecast I had seen, showed "some snow" for Saturday. Looks like GFS keeps a bulk of the precip south, but the long duration could be good for at least 6" across N IL. You really need to start looking at the models you quote. That TOTALLY keeps the bulk precip south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ratios should be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 ratios should be amazing. 15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland 60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day winter 2013/2014, never forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland 60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day winter 2013/2014, never forget Never never land?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 You really need to start looking at the models you quote. That TOTALLY keeps the bulk precip south. Tim is probably looking at the QPF maps and leaving it at that. Doing that though will give you a false notion that the snow amounts are lower when in fact this will be a decent ratio event which is why we are seeing widespread 12"+ amounts being pumped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 No way that GFS happens. Should end up about 150 miles south of here. I don't like when I get snow flakes in my ice cube making machine I call the outdoors. Just slows the whole process down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland 60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day winter 2013/2014, never forget I don't even know if 12/26/09 had this deep of a DGZ, even if it's borderline in that layer around 750mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland 60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day winter 2013/2014, never forget I never get excited about ratios for that reason. I care about QPF and that's it... In the end the ratio always ends up being around 8:1 after settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 LOL, I just took a peek at Dark Sky's ideas for my back yard: 14-20" on Sunday and 2-5" on Monday. (Continuing into Tuesday it looks like). The online version is even more LOL worthy: http://forecast.io/#/f/40.1173,-88.2045 15-22" on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Tim is probably looking at the QPF maps and leaving it at that. Doing that though will give you a false notion that the snow amounts are lower when in fact this will be a decent ratio event which is why we are seeing widespread 12"+ amounts being pumped out. 6z GFS wants to spit out almost 1" of QPF at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 hard not to notice the lack of euro talk, assuming it's junk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 6z GFS wants to spit out almost 1" of QPF at ORD. No I agree that there is a good amount of QPF, but there is certainly much more across IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 hard not to notice the lack of euro talk, assuming it's junk? Same idea just lighter amounts, maybe a touch south, Euro does blow up a lot of QPF across central IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 15-17:1 looks like a good starting off point for Chicagoland 60 straight hours of pixie dust delivering 12"+ that settles to 4" within a day winter 2013/2014, never forget Actually pixie dust snow doesn't have a high fluff/settle factor so 12" would settle into about 9 after 2 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 GHD like [expletive] totals for LAF, verbatim on the 12z GFS. I hope it's wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 a much lamer solution than 6z and similar to more of the GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 a much lamer solution than 6z and similar to more of the GEFS members Trough evolution from 120 to 144hr doesn't add up, it should have kept digging but instead it gets pulled eastward along the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z cuts amounts nearly in half basically. Most potent wave hits Wisconsin Saturday night, the next one targets further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 a much lamer solution than 6z and similar to more of the GEFS members Based on winter trends...we will probably see a January 1-5 repeat. Only makes sense, been snowless here in excess of seven days. Scratch that, snowed on the back end of the rainstorm last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Still 9" here lol Cutting 16" in half ain't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z cuts amounts nearly in half basically. Most potent wave hits Wisconsin Saturday night, the next one targets further south.It's just getting warmed up..wasn't this thing modeled well south 48 hrs. ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Tim is probably looking at the QPF maps and leaving it at that. Doing that though will give you a false notion that the snow amounts are lower when in fact this will be a decent ratio event which is why we are seeing widespread 12"+ amounts being pumped out. Yeah, that's what I am looking at is the QPF. And, the heaviest QPF is south. N IL stays with lower QPF, but given the duration of the event, we stand to gain, and I did say "at least 6". Could we stand to get more? I am sure a 4"-12" range is a safe bet at this point. So, I apologize for my apparently mis-informed post. . I'll shut up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 12z GGEM south of its 0z run...for all intents and purposes. Looks like a shellacker for southern IL/IN/OH at 144 hours. EDIT: early on it hits IA and southern WI (84 to 96 hours). Lots of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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