blue60007 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Meh, too early for p-type concerns. If I'm going to worry about anything at this point, it's getting decent QPF in here...especially with the main wave. Yeah... at this point I'd rather have a ton of qpf. I almost want something non-snow... all snow is getting a bit boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS ensembles less suppressed than the op gfs. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_12z/f138.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 The evolution of this seems somewhat similar to the January 4th storm. Correct me if I'm wrong. UA pattern isn't even close. It has some similarities to the Feb 4-5th event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yeah... at this point I'd rather have a ton of qpf. I almost want something non-snow... all snow is getting a bit boring Freezing rain is out, unless something drastically changes...and I hate sleet with a passion...so we'll have to agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ouch. Come back from class and they've upped the forecast on me to anywhere between 12 and 21 inches. Are you kidding me right now? And they probably still won't cancel class here at WIU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ouch. Come back from class and they've upped the forecast on me to anywhere between 12 and 21 inches. Are you kidding me right now? And they probably still won't cancel class here at WIU. 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 SREF plumes at ORD now under 1.5" for Friday. A couple 12z GEFS members are interesting, most lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 SREF plumes at ORD now under 1.5" for Friday. A couple 12z GEFS members are interesting, most lame. Friday is a nuisance event..what about the late weekend potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Friday is a nuisance event..what about the late weekend potential? still just dancing in the end zone re: friday weekend potential is too soon to say. a couple GEFS members wrap up something decent but the idea has little supprt. drawn out 2-5" is the way to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 NAM is pretty clueless right now. 7-9 for WI with the 1st event (18z NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Darn, site tempered its expectations to 9-16 inches lol. I don't care, sticking with my 4-8 inches prediction for now over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 lol, moneyman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 DLL looking good for Friday night. No snow in NE IL until Saturday morning - early. 30 degree line noses into the southern burbs of Chicago on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 'copter lol all about the avi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 still just dancing in the end zone re: friday Excessive celebration, 15 yard penalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Izzi says meh MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGYWEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION FRIDAYNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ISEXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AFFECTING REGIONS CLOSER TO THEOHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER WEAKER WAVE FARTHER NORTH COULD PROVIDE FOR ASWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW CLOSER TO OUR REGION AS WARM AIRADVECTION LEADS TO A STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. EVEN THE MOREAGGRESSIVE MODELS ONLY LOOK TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF A COUPLE/FEWINCHES OF SNOW AND MAINLY FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN CWA.SATURDAY WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS WEST COAST UPPER LOW OPENSUP AND PLOWS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE MAJORITY OF THEMODELS FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP/SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE OUR CWA...IT ISSTILL 5 DAYS OUT AND A LOT CAN CHANGE. NOT UNCOMMON FOR MEDIUM RANGEMODELS TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS TOO QUICKLY AND AMORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY POST A GREAT SNOW THREAT FARTHERNORTH. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THECWA...THOUGH IF CURRENT RUNS HOLD COURSE AND THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONSPANS OUT WE COULD POTENTIALLY BEGIN CHIPPING AWAY AT THIS POPS INLATER FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 TWO SNOW EVENTS LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION...THE FIRST BEING FRIDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEXT GENERALLY SATURDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATIONALOFT FOR EITHER EVENT...THUS BOTH ARE PRIM ARLY DRIVEN THROUGHMODEST WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS INDICATES MAINLY A LIGHT SNOWINTENSITY FOR BOTH EVENTS. THE INITIAL EVENT FRIDAY PM SHOULDBEGIN IN THE WEST AFTER NOON...AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST OF THE CWALATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD LAST AROUND 8 HOURS OR SO IN ANYONE LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHT INTENSITY. THIS SUPPORTS AMOUNTS OF 1TO 2 INCHES IN GENERAL FROM THE INITIAL EVENT. THE GFS IS THE ODDMODEL OUT OF THIS PROCESS WITH RESPECT TO QPF. THIS IS MAINLY DUETO THAT MODEL SHOWING MORE NOTABLE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERYPRECIPITATION OVER MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY...WHICHPREVENTS MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE NORTHERN WAVES FORCING OVERIOWA. THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT GIVEN OUR SUPPORT...HOWEVER A NODTO THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOWER END OF LIKELY FOR THE 1STEVENT.QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST EVENT WILL BE ANOTHER PRIMARILY MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EVENT FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS SHOWA ZONE OF LIGHT SNOW FORMING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN SOUTHDAKOTA SATURDAY...WORKING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THISSHOULD BRING SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE SATURDAY PM TOSUNDAY PERIOD...WITH LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE INTENSITY EXPECTED.SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW LONG THE BAND OF SNOW REMAINSOVER HEAD. THE GFS IS SLOWEST...AND THEREFORE HEAVIEST ON SNOWTOTALS. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF REMAIN QUICKER AND LIGHTER.AS WE RESOLVE TIMING...WE CAN DETERMINE THE SCALE OF THIS SNOWEVENT/AMOUNTS.Eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 FWIW the weather channel is telling cities from Indy, Dayton, Cincy, and Columbus to be prepared for a major ice storm I personally think all these cities, with maybe Cincy being the exception, are more likely to see heavy snows....8-12 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 ILN going snow for all but the s/se 1/3 of cwa .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SATURDAY STARTS OUT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE MORNING AND WEAKENING/STRETCHING SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE LATER PART OF THE DAY. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE MORNING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND LIKELY EXHIBIT A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IF THEY ARE STILL PRESENT BY NOON. THIS WEAK FRONT BRINGS THE REGION TO THE NEXT THREAT OF WINTERY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION AND THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISM IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THERMAL PROFILES OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET CREATE A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PTYPE EXPECTED. WHILE THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE AS TIME PROGRESSES...THE GFS IS COOLER WITH ITS LATEST RUN AND I USED THIS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY THE SAME MODELS HAVE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD INDICATE SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN FOR APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA. BY THE TIME DAYBREAK MONDAY ROLLS AROUND...ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL QUICKLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BACK INTO THE WINTER REGIME THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER AND LAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'll just wait and see for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I like where I sit. We probably won't hit 80" with this storm but it should be an interesting storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is really weak with the first wave now. Fizzles as it crosses from Wisconsin into Michigan. 2nd wave further south. 6"+ south of I-88 to I-70, but not quite to STL. Very sharp gradient over IND metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 It's not much but the 18z GFS is a tad wetter here. .50" liquid line a bit further north. 6-8" here this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is really weak with the first wave now. Fizzles as it crosses from Wisconsin into Michigan. 2nd wave further south. 6"+ south of I-88 to I-70, but not quite to STL. Very sharp gradient over IND metro. 18zGFS_022614.png 8" line gets up to MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 LES machine adds some snow on GFS Mon/Tues. 8-10" 3-4 day total here by Tuesday. The warmth from last week may have opened up the lake enough to make it a factor. Remember that comparison pic Geos had last week of the lakefront going from ice ridden to cold water? Could do some good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 I'm up for one last hooray. That high pressure to the north is going to have to back off a little in order to give this system an opportunity to go negative tilt. yup, just another pos flat wave that doesn't do us much good. dream winter for those in the tropics of Illinois through se mi that feast on these yawner waves that don't explode until well east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 8" line gets up to MDW Yeah then I advanced the map and noticed that too. 6" from Tuanis on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 yup, just another pos flat wave that doesn't do us much good. dream winter for those in the tropics of Illinois through se mi that feast on these yawner waves that don't explode until well east. Haterz gonna hate. BTW, check your PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS is really weak with the first wave now. Fizzles as it crosses from Wisconsin into Michigan. 2nd wave further south. 6"+ south of I-88 to I-70, but not quite to STL. Very sharp gradient over IND metro. 18zGFS_022614.png See? SEE?! ITS ALWAYS 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 The STL to LAF corridor cannot be denied this winter. Several sites in C. IL approaching all time records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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