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LakeEffectOH

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Everything posted by LakeEffectOH

  1. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Looks like we had about 6" of paste in Chesterland. Down here at work in Solon...it looks more like 8" fell. Figures CLE issued an advisory with all the wind and snowfall. Late last night and this morning it looked more like warning conditions.
  2. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    The 2010s are a far cry from the 2000s when big storms seemed to come once or twice a year. I remember the March 2008 storm well. 20-24" all the way up I-71.
  3. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    This has been a crappy snow drought...I don't think we've had a decent synoptic event (CLE having 10+") since early 2011. The GHD II storm in 2015 dumped over a foot in many parts of the area, but CLE picked up about 8". I attached a graph of annual snowfall totals for CLE. Red line is at 70" which is close to our annual average of 68.1" The 2010s have been below normal except for 2013-14.
  4. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Hard to tell how much fell IMBY. My front yard has spots where the grass is poking thru, but my back yard has drifts up to 2 feet high. Judging by this storm total map from the NWS, Chesterland picked up from 8 to 10 inches. Overall, the storm under-performed based on the totals maps issued on Monday PM. I think, as often happens, drier air advected in faster than forecast, thus cutting snow totals...not to mention the primary storm getting its energy sucked out by the coastal.. It seems like coastals robbing primary storm systems as they approach NE Ohio have been fairly common over the past several years. This could very well be caused by persistent warmer than normal SSTs off the east coast. When the arctic air comes in from the west, clashing with the abnormally warm ssts, the coastal storms spin up fast and quite often, bomb out. SSTA Maps for recent Januarys...Notice the SSTAs off of the east coast (circled in red)...
  5. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    So far, Chesterland has been bracketed by the larger band about 5mi to our west and a weaker band just to the east. Only flurries over the last few hours w/no accumulation. Hope the situation changes.
  6. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    The radar looks awful! Disorganized with Nothing but tiny popcorn snow showers scattered all over the place. Drive a half mile, you are in very light flurries. Go another half mile, its a whiteout. Ugh!
  7. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Looking out the window, I can actually see a slight blue tinge to the sky overhead.
  8. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Hopefully it will be over Cuyahoga, Lake & Geauga by tonight. If so, we should have some decent accumulations as there is no sun to fight!
  9. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Seems that the clouds are pretty thin too. I remember Dick Goddard saying that LES clouds were normally pretty thin.
  10. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Radar shows most of West Geauga getting pounded
  11. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Earlier this AM in Chesterland, there were almost bare places with grass showing with other places over 6" deep. Wind, of course... My WAG is around 3" as of 8 am. Been snowing pretty hard in Solon. Interesting with the higher sun angle, it looks as if the sun is trying to come out. Again, hard to say how much has fallen because of the wind and probably, a stronger sun evaporating (not melting) some of that snow since the moisture content is low.
  12. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    CLE has expanded the 12-18" storm totals. Last night, the shading was for northern Geauga county & Erie county PA. Earlier today, the western edge of the 12-18 just touched the Cuyahoga/Geauga line, but covered the Primary belt east into PA. Now...
  13. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Local QPFs from the 18Z 12KM & the 18Z 4KM NAM look a little better than the 12Z runs.
  14. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Count me in! Haven't posted this year any. Lots of stuff going on, but meeting up is a great idea!
  15. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Chesterland had around 13-15" since it all started on Monday. Snow depth has settled to around 8". We will be slammed by next week's storm. How do I know? Because I'll be in California all next week.
  16. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    Radar looks kind of meh now with popcorn snow showers.
  17. LakeEffectOH

    Let's Talk Winter

    There WILL be a blizzard for all of Ohio!! I know that! Why? You ask...Because I will be in California from this weekend thru all of next week. That's why!
  18. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    That band looks pretty intense...Picked up about 5" last night. Have around 6" on the ground. Probably a total of 8" so far with 2 of those inches lost to compression.
  19. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    OHWx...seriously, I think you are one of the best posters on this site. I always look forward to what you have to say about upcoming winter events! Many thanks!!
  20. LakeEffectOH

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    I think the 2nd half of Feb well into March will be the best part of this winter. Unfortunately, it is also the end part of this winter. Hopefully our luck will change.
  21. LakeEffectOH

    Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

    The PV displacement is happening as depicted but the energy transfer that's making it happen will, according to a tweet from Cohen, prevent a lock-in of below normal temps. That, along with the ongoing effects of the strong Nino will produce a more progressive pattern as we saw the first 10 days of this month....Nothing like the Horror of December. Per the MJO, the most recent Euro monthly plot shows the MJO progressing pretty fast. If correct, we should be out of the awful 4/5/6 phases. Chances are good a well placed MJO wave and a displaced PV will yield a really good wintery pattern w/much more snow. Not only that, this pattern could last well into March (Better late than never).
  22. LakeEffectOH

    Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

    To me, there is a disconnect between the forecast MJO (the Euro ens & the Canadian ens are lovely...phases 4 & 5 with increasing amplitudes...ugh) and the forecast patterns the Euro ens & Canadian ens show. Euro EPS Ens... Canadian GEPS Ens... The forecast patterns hardly resemble what typically results from higher amplitude MJO 4 & 5 in Februaries with a strong El Nino... Expected Feb pattern based on >1 amplitude MJO during strong Nino Phase/Octant 4 Phase/Octant 5 ...Plots courtesy of Raleigh Wx Interestingly, though, over the past couple of days GEFS MJO forecast (non-bias corrected) has backed away from going into 4 & 5 and now show some retrograding. The bias corrected GEFS MJO forecast...not so much. GFS Ens (GEFS) bias corrected GFS Ens (GEFS) non-bias corrected It's possible the ensemble pattern forecasts depict the p. vortex displacement underway offsetting the crappy effects of MJO 4 & 5. Nice PNA ridging on all ensemble pattern forecasts.
  23. LakeEffectOH

    2015/16 Autumn/Winter Banter, Complaint, Whining Thread

    For us in NEOH, an Apps tracker headed NNE is definitely the best. More commonly, we have storms coming from the south and west that tend to track either NE (LP moving from TN/KY to Pitt/north WV) or ENE (LP headed from south IN/north KY to Pitt/north WV). Often with these tracks, we get screwed. Why, well when storms track as described, it is not unusual that by the time the precip shield arrives here, it begins to fall apart in short order because the energy is now getting robbed by a developing coastal. It seems like this has been happening more over the last 5 years. In these cases, I've seen Chicago & Detroit make out better then we do because of the coastal lows taking over. At least you guys further west are normally safe from East Coast Snow Theft.
  24. LakeEffectOH

    2015/16 Autumn/Winter Banter, Complaint, Whining Thread

    That makes sense. I remember a major difference between here and points further south. On the 24th, I remember driving south to Solon which is only 18 miles from where I live and seeing a lot of ice on the trees and about half the snow on the ground. There was maybe a trace of ice on the trees around my house.
  25. LakeEffectOH

    2015/16 Autumn/Winter Banter, Complaint, Whining Thread

    Where did you live in NEOH? I remember Chesterland getting just over a foot from the pre-Christmas Day storm of 2004 (if that's the one you are referring to). CLE picked up about 17" and places like Avon had close to 20". I remember the snow was wet and ended as a little freezing rain IMBY. After that, temps fell below zero on Christmas Eve and the wet snow cover nearly turned to concrete.
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