EasternUSWX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 With the way this winter has gone... another over performer possibly? Should we flip to a new thread this afternoon for this next event? They should just put my house in 1-2" lol. Anyways, 43 out now. Roasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Lol mine already is!!! I'm guessing LSV does best in this. Keep me update with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 MDT has become the new DCA. It is amazing how much less they've had for just about every event this season than I've had. that band last night just didnt want to come near 11/15... close but not close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 MDT has become the new DCA. It is amazing how much less they've had for just about every event this season than I've had. its always been that way, at least as long as i remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heard about 2 roofs that collapsed so far... one a cabinet shop, near Newmanstown, Lebanon County. The other one was a skating rink roof in Spring Twp, Berks County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A hog barn partially collapsed in southern Lancaster County as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heard about 2 roofs that collapsed so far... one a cabinet shop, near Newmanstown, Lebanon County. The other one was a skating rink roof in Spring Twp, Berks County. A fire company's roof collapsed around here somewhere - Fairview Twp I believe. And a storage roof collapsed in Hershey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Slight Decent chance at a NESIS Cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Getting some decent blowing snow off the roof-tops of the taller buildings in downtown State College and west campus. It's enough to obscure visibility. IST Building is basically a mini-blizzard machine today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 fwiw... 12z euro has the clipper produce precip for us as a 1000-1004mb low tomorrow morning to early afternoon... then from 18z to 0z it bombs at about 2mb/hr rate but well off the coast to really impact us... looking at 17z analysis, this system is already a 1006mb low... to me it already looks slightly stronger and moving a hair faster than what the 12z models had for 18z today... QPF wise Euro still lighter than NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Congrats on the snow event out there. I think this is the first time State College approached 10" in an event since 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 fwiw... 12z euro has the clipper produce precip for us as a 1000-1004mb low tomorrow morning to early afternoon... then from 18z to 0z it bombs at about 2mb/hr rate but well off the coast to really impact us... looking at 17z analysis, this system is already a 1006mb low... to me it already looks slightly stronger and moving a hair faster than what the 12z models had for 18z today... QPF wise Euro still lighter than NAM/GFS It was mentioned in the SNE thread that models initialized the low weaker than reality for 12z: MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It was mentioned in the SNE thread that models initialized the low weaker than reality for 12z: MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE Watch this come in stronger then modeled & hit MDT with almost as much snow as they recorded in this past storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A bit late reporting in with my storm summary. You already have read about how Zak and djr fared. Pretty much all of us in Cumberland and Franklin counties did not get to participate in the CCB round 2 part of the storm. For the first part I measured 10.0" which fell mostly fell in a 10-hour period between 1AM and 11AM. Then, for the next 7 hours we sat staring at our screens, frustrated to no end that the deathband ended up hanging out west of us all day long. We kept anticipating the arrival of the cold conveyor belt snows but they just did not materialize. I'm sure no one else was noticing but for nearly an hour the western band was redeveloping eastward to a point less than 5 miles to my west. At the same time the new York deathband was moving north and a tad west until it was just clipping Harrisburg, but no further west. I (we) watched as we were stuck in a snow hole that just would not fill in. Eventually near the very end of the CCB activity I actually got a dusting, but that was it. I was totally satisfied with the 10" from round one. It was the largest event for me since 10/30/11 where I had measured 6.2". I was incredibly frustrated that I spent the entire afternoon waiting for the CCB that never came. But I've lived long enough now to take whatever I get and be happy. I am totally happy for those northwest and southeast of me who really cashed in, especially on the CCB. I would have liked to have seen some thundersnow. That is always a rare treat. I don't have an exact figure right now for my seasonal total, but it is close to 35" after this storm. That puts me over the 100% seasonal average for here, so how can I complain?? On to the next one tonight. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Congrats on the snow event out there. I think this is the first time State College approached 10" in an event since 2010? March 6, 2011, 10.0 December 26, 2012, 9.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Did any of you happen to catch WGAL's 11:30pm broadcast last night? After all of the craziness over social media forecasts and the public's perception of forecasters in general, I couldn't help but let out a sign when a pedestrian who was asked about the storm responded and said, "...Well, they finally got one right!" AllWeather, did you catch that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 "No rest for the weary" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 MDT has become the new DCA. It is amazing how much less they've had for just about every event this season than I've had. I don't know if the bands this winter cut off that much just to the north of us. I have the same total of 16 inches you reported earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Here were the reports from me and the rest of Blair. I ended up being the lowest report...can't say i'm a weenie when it comes to reporting snow haha. I think the period yesterday afternoon where the snow falling wasn't reflective of what the radar was indicating overhead knocked an inch or two off of where I probably should've been. ...BLAIR COUNTY...WILLIAMSBURG 10.1 800 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVERHOLLIDAYSBURG 9.0 700 PM 2/13 SOCIAL MEDIAALTOONA 7.8 1031 PM 2/13 CO-OP OBSERVERTYRONE 7.1 800 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER1 SW BELLWOOD 6.5 1200 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Watch this come in stronger then modeled & hit MDT with almost as much snow as they recorded in this past storm my arms and back need a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Did any of you happen to catch WGAL's 11:30pm broadcast last night? After all of the craziness over social media forecasts and the public's perception of forecasters in general, I couldn't help but let out a sign when a pedestrian who was asked about the storm responded and said, "...Well, they finally got one right!" AllWeather, did you catch that?? Didn't see it, but heard about it. For every one of those types of people, there's about 20 people who appreciate what we do. It's just the vocal minority that get to be heard. But I will say, there are so many different outlets to get a forecast from these days. It's a wonder people don't just start tuning it out altogether because there's just so many differing opinions when it comes to the forecast. From the groups on Facebook, to the private and public sectors, you can pretty much get a huge range of numbers when a winter storm approaches. It's part of the job, but it is frustrating when your word is discredited the second it leaves your mouth because some people are very hung up on their favorite "source". Some of these people get a little nasty when they disagree with your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i will take this time to point out who started this thread.....cough cough. Jamie Cough cough......and since it was a success, i hearby nominate him to start the next thread........All in favor say Aye......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Here were the reports from me and the rest of Blair. I ended up being the lowest report...can't say i'm a weenie when it comes to reporting snow haha. I think the period yesterday afternoon where the snow falling wasn't reflective of what the radar was indicating overhead knocked an inch or two off of where I probably should've been. My 10.5 was lowest in my county as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 to me looks to be an inch, 2" max tomorrow for us in the Harrisburg region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Didn't see it, but heard about it. For every one of those types of people, there's about 20 people who appreciate what we do. It's just the vocal minority that get to be heard. But I will say, there are so many different outlets to get a forecast from these days. It's a wonder people don't just start tuning it out altogether because there's just so many differing opinions when it comes to the forecast. From the groups on Facebook, to the private and public sectors, you can pretty much get a huge range of numbers when a winter storm approaches. It's part of the job, but it is frustrating when your word is discredited the second it leaves your mouth because some people are very hung up on their favorite "source". Some of these people get a little nasty when they disagree with your forecast. The two most careers where the public tells you how to do it or second guess you is Weather forecasters and Police Officers and I can vouch for the later. Yes the minority is the most vocal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 to me looks to be an inch, 2" max tomorrow for us in the Harrisburg region. I'd agree looking at the models and temps. Lol, waiting for cars on the track checking in on the models!! Nice warmup next week too, hope we avoid rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 to me looks to be an inch, 2" max tomorrow for us in the Harrisburg region. FWIW 18z NAM came in wetter and farther north with QPF. Anyone surprised I think this is looking like widespread 2-4". Lesser amounts to the NW and jackpot in the Laurels. Someone in the southern 1/2 of the state will most likely see a pretty good period of moderate-heavy snow from this thing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'd agree looking at the models and temps. Lol, waiting for cars on the track checking in on the models!! Nice warmup next week too, hope we avoid rain! probably damn close to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 FWIW 18z NAM came in wetter and farther north with QPF. Anyone surprised I think this is looking like widespread 2-4". Someone in the southern 1/2 of the state will most likely see a pretty good period of moderate-heavy snow from it too. .10 looks like to me for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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