jm1220 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I don't even think its physically possible to phase in the entire PV. A lobe of it, sure, that'll get you a bad ass Miller B bomb but the entire PV, not gonna happen. March 2001 pretty much did. It just happened way too late for most of us to get meaningful snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I really think we'll get a nice redeveloping clipper out of this. I see the PV retreating and elongating as the energetic shortwave comes straight down, and can see the gfs blowing this up as we get closer yet again. This pattern is a ticking time bomb, and we will get another significant event soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We have our WOTY candidate, folks! Its between him and that guy sferic lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Its between him and that guy sferic lol.. Yeah that guy is an IMBY question machine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yeah that guy is an IMBY question machine! Classic how much for philly poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit.OK I'll bite, just for the sake of giving everyone a fair shake... Could you please present your evidence for your reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 OK I'll bite, just for the sake of giving everyone a fair shake... Could you please present your evidence for your reasoning? Im going to give this person credit, he has got some balls posting these absolute swinging for the fences and out of the park grand slams to win a game in the first inning of a baseball game calls. HOWEVER, in this pattern they're will be surprises and would not surprise me personally if it included a high end NESIS 4+ storm. Other thought being pondered is this is possibly JB's screen name here hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit.wishcaster, come on. While we would all be jumping with joy and laying butt naked in it, where's your reasoning? Ill be the first one to eat crow if it indeed becomes true, but throwing this out into the open is mind numbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit. Tapping into my subconscious is "eerie". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not to mention that weenie cast post has nothin to do with the 27/28 clipper.. Past that junk in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Stick a fork in this threat....this one's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Stick a fork in this threat....this one's done I would watch that southern stream system though just behind it for the 29th or 30th if the Atlantic ridge is being underestimated again that could easily end up coming up the coast. It's too bad that the clipper didn't dive more south because if it did it would have had a shot at phasing in with that disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I would watch that southern stream system though just behind it for the 29th or 30th if the Atlantic ridge is being underestimated again that could easily end up coming up the coast. It's too bad that the clipper didn't dive more south because if it did it would have had a shot at phasing in with that disturbance. Totally agree. And after tuesday i think this pattern has just said to us, dont throw in the towel too soon. I know this isnt going to pertain to every storm threat but this system could also be poorly modeled as well. Something to just keep in mind. Im not tossing the towel until inside 72 hours where the models "should" have a grasp on things . More realistic approach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think we should concentrate on Saturdays system first which seems can give us a light to moderate event 1-3 or 2-4 in spots that get banding - also going to seem like more then it actually is because of the 6 - 10 plus inches already on the ground.Also since the ground is so cold will stick on all surfaces even though near the coast temps might reach freezing or slightly above - saturdays sytem will effect the track of monday -tuesdays system and over the weekend is when any adjustments to the models and track will probably occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Agreed...the monday system can still dig depending on what Saturday's system does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 And right on cue the nam is digging the monday system a little more. Something to monitor anyway. Wonder what the gfs will do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z 84 hour NAM 996 MB . 6z 90 hour GFS 1008 MB , Bigger implications are for New England at this point . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z 84 hour NAM 996 MB . 6z 90 hour GFS 1008 MB , Bigger implications are for New England at this point . Wouldnt be surprised if it digged more in upcoming runs. Not saying its going to be big for us but after this weeks debacle nothing can be dismissed. Onto the 12z gfs for more insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NAM at 84, I know, I know. But look at tne NAM at 84 at 18z on 1/19. It saw the move towards the NW and wasn't that far off (maybe 50 miles further NW). It's performing better in it's long range these days. It's got to be seeing the pattern better than it usually does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It seems to me that it is just slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Stick a fork in this threat....this one's done This early? Look what happened with the last storm. Nam looks further south than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is still a nyc/ne threat imo. Not so much for my area at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is still a nyc/ne threat imo. Not so much for my area at this point. Eh your area really isnt part of ours so i can care less haha. Totally agree though some more digging and we are in business again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This early? Look what happened with the last storm. Nam looks further south than previous runsYeah people have to be joking to make a statement like that after what just happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yeah people have to be joking to make a statement like that after what just happened.its called pure weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 its called pure weenieism.I was referring to the earlier post about"sticking a fork in it" not snow's post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 its called pure weenieism. Not weenieism. The pattern can produce something at a moments notice as seen a couple days ago, threats these next few weeks should be dismissed outside of 90 hrs at the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12 GFS at hour 84 - surface much better 500 better too, \better run for Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Growing -epo/+pna ridge trying to help dig the s/w a little more this run of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 baby step in right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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