RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Blizzard of '96 is probably the ultimate rare example of a pure coastal system with Gulf origins snowing big on the majority of central PA and the entire megalopolis. It doesn't seem that the NAO/AO is going to resemble Feb 2010 (among other things), at least initially. Which kinda worries me a bit if we break into this more gradient type pattern that the models have been suggesting for after this coming week's deep freeze. The European operational today kind of shows how this can go wrong, with us on the wrong side of the gradient and back to raining next weekend (talking D9-10 though). Lack of blocking via the NAO would figure to leave us susceptible to such things when the storminess shows up with the PNA forecast to become negative. On the other hand, it's going to be a fight for anything to displace the insistent cold we have and will continue to have with an established snow pack, etc. I def like the look overall though, as it appears to become active. I've had this concern in the back of my mind as well. I think you might see some of these subforums have a total melt down if we go from highs in the teens and lows below zero to slop & rain storms. Hopefully most if not all of PA can stay on the right side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You wanna know what I'd like to see again in my lifetime? The event back in 2007-8 where a 5-10 mile swath of Lancaster county got a foot of snow and people a mile or two over got nothing. THAT was a weird/awesome event. I live in Akron which is right in the center of that streamer. my buddy on the other side of Ephrata all but bare ground and I was watching snowmobiles flyin around on my way to work. I'm very happy with the season so far, but hope for a hum dinger for all of us. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'll be driving to work tomorrow around the same time. 1 inch of snow wont be to bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL...CPA only one to avoid advisory. Models are showing an odd dry hole though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 1 inch of snow wont be to bad. right but its the other morons that cant drive when there is just more than a dusting that make it difficult sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not gonna lie, the NAM showing a giant snow hole of 90 percent of us kinda irks me. I wanted the grass covered at least lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL...CPA only one to avoid advisory. Models are showing an odd dry hole though. both CTP and PBZ discussions describe pretty well why those areas are likely to receive advisory snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just saw the new snow map, put my backyard barely in the 2-4. Maybe MAG and I get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That was! I remember being at Millersville and getting about 4" from that. While Eric Horst got 12" at his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I was in ltitz and got around 12. It was pretty awesome. Very similar to a lake effect band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just saw the new snow map, put my backyard barely in the 2-4. Maybe MAG and I get lucky. Both of you will prob beat me in snow for tomorrow... Thats the way it has been this year...but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL...CPA only one to avoid advisory. Models are showing an odd dry hole though.Not odd at all its from down sloping off the laurel highlands. Happens when the flow is out of the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Both of you will prob beat me in snow for tomorrow... Thats the way it has been this year...but we'll see lapse rates in your area could make things interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 lapse rates in your area could make things interesting hoping for the best and 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Found the CTP writeup on the localized snow band you guys have been talking about. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2009/02_04/index.php Just saw the new snow map, put my backyard barely in the 2-4. Maybe MAG and I get lucky. I think we'll manage a couple inches fairly easily being right off the mountains. CTP could probably add some of their northern counties to the advisory given what they're forecasting amount wise. There's quite a discrepancy in the southwest with CTP vs PIT amounts (CTP posted this on their Facebook). Winds will be a factor, esp later in the day and they had mentioned extending advisories east some for the combo of sub advisory amounts and wind. That south central hole is likely to be quite prevalent for this event (specifically the steady snow portion of it) as well as the next event coming in with the lows tracking to our northwest, keeping a downsloping component to the wind..although increased instability later in the day should yield widespread showers/squalls for everyone. Western PA and the Pittsburgh gang should do pretty well with these next couple systems overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I couldn't be in a worse location for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I couldn't be in a worse location for this one.Looks like Mag is In a good spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I couldn't be in a worse location for this one. Me either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I feel its going to be difficult to get a good measurement with the wind. BTW I am home for a family get together. I am thinking 3-5" with maybe 6 in the higher ridge tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I couldn't be in a worse location for this one. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like a classic CPA snowhole setting up for tomorrow. Folks to my west and east should do better than UNV. But hey I'll enjoy no matter what, we'll have a radar to track and the ground getting white tomorrow, can't complain with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Pretty much all the major 0z guidance tonight looked kinda ugly for later next weekend (day 8-10 range). Closer look of the GFS wasn't as bad as I thought, an overrunning snow event at 174 that transitions to ice and some rain before cold comes back (followed by another wave of ice/rain/snow in truncation land around D11-12). The European has the same weekend system but more of an ice to rain look to it initially and by 240 we're stuck on the wrong side of the gradient with a major southeast ridge. Euro operational was def the worst looking of the bunch IMO in that 8-10 day timeframe (and probably beyond that) . What's becoming clear is we're going to have a pattern change around this time next week as the big western ridge gets broken down and we transition into a more active pattern with a flatter storm track along the gradient. As I mentioned earlier, any attempt to rout our established cold regime and snowpack is likely to be met with resistance in the form of ice and snow. I would imagine models are probably not even close to resolving what this upcoming pattern change is going to mean in terms of our sensible weather yet given the range, and we easily could be seeing multiple of waves of snow on the models in a few days with a weaker se ridge and lower storm track. It's a high risk/high reward type look to things, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just for fun, but kind of true for some locations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Got some shots of the Susquehanna from chickies rock overlook on the way to work this morning, I'll post them later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Snowing in York............... Above the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 York looks like a nice band of snow....coffee and watch it snow... Voyager isn't that the truth with some of these storms. Neff looking forward to seeing the river pics! Mag all this cold and then a chance of rain....Grrrr Thanks for the weather thoughts!! Always look forward to them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Virga-fest here in Lancaster. Nothing reaching the ground yet with such a vast DP depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So the GFS in the long range shows 50 degrees on my birthday (February 8th). Too bad it's 348 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Neff looking forward to seeing the river pics! Surprisingly, it's not completely covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Starting to snow in York New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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