MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro verdict? I'll see the whole thing here in about 15-20, Accu Pro's slower and they don't have a rapid update..so gotta wait til the whole things done with just text data at my disposal in the mean time. I read in another thread it had the 2/2 event going to Buffalo still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep, Euro yanks a storm left up thru Buf around 186-198h with +10 850mb temps into PA. Looked like a brief interior central PA ice to rain and mainly rain elsewhere type deal. Cold air moves back in some and at 240hr there's a juiced up Gulf storm waiting to come up. Still a bit more pronounced with southeast ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep, Euro yanks a storm left up thru Buf around 186-198h with +10 850mb temps into PA. Looked like a brief interior central PA ice to rain and mainly rain elsewhere type deal. Cold air moves back in some and at 240hr there's a juiced up Gulf storm waiting to come up. Still a bit more pronounced with southeast ridging. Yuck, lets hope its wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thanks for the heads up. I loved this radar and thought it was still down. Allweather needs to give us a report Sorry, I was sleeping. Early morning shift on Saturday/Sunday makes me have no weekend life! When I talked to AllWeather last (a few months ago) he said that the server replacement amongst the IT people over there was essentially "the last thing on their list" but it looks like it's back up now. Indeed, they replaced the server because it turned out to be a popular feature on the WGAL website (shocker), AND a useful tool for NWS & Millersville University (my 2 biggest reasons for reinstating it). Didn't get to see the squall, but got to see the aftermath driving in. Looked like about 1/2" from eyeballing it. We have a sweet timelapse out of Harrisburg showing the squall coming in...went from unlimited to near-zero, whiteout conditions in a matter of a minute or two. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Also, do any of you guys know what is going on with the NOAA AMB page?? The RAP & HRRR plots were completely down yesterday and now today the page is back but there's no data available. Did I miss an announcement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 84 hour NAM gives New Orleans 6" of snow, lol. The 6z NAM this morning has 3-6 for nearly all of the Florida panhandle...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What is this falling from the sky? Nothing showing on radar. We had a short burst of moderate snowfall which left a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 6z NAM this morning has 3-6 for nearly all of the Florida panhandle...lol That would suck!!! They get 6" of snow we end up with rain after all this cold. 9 degrees here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What is this falling from the sky? Nothing showing on radar. We had a short burst of moderate snowfall which left a coating. Our radar here at work picked it up...narrow band of snow slicing through the state reached as far southeast as Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Our RPM model's take on the upcoming wind chills Tuesday morning. Almost identical to earlier this month across the entire Commonwealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Our radar here at work picked it up...narrow band of snow slicing through the state reached as far southeast as Chester County Capture (2).JPG Ahaa. I should have checked your radar first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 3/4" from the 2 snow squalls that past through York,Pa. A win to me. Wish something would materialize this week/weekend, but I highly doubt it . Expectations are extremely low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That would suck!!! They get 6" of snow we end up with rain after all this cold. 9 degrees here this morning. Myrtle Beach SC is looking good too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep, Euro yanks a storm left up thru Buf around 186-198h with +10 850mb temps into PA. Looked like a brief interior central PA ice to rain and mainly rain elsewhere type deal. Cold air moves back in some and at 240hr there's a juiced up Gulf storm waiting to come up. Still a bit more pronounced with southeast ridging. I wonder if it's tendency this winter to overamp stuff actually works on our side here for once. Two other things; it now takes the little storm next weekend to our south as opposed to our north, and the end of the run looks pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Myrtle Beach SC is looking good too lol. The 6z NAM this morning has 3-6 for nearly all of the Florida panhandle...lol What is this falling from the sky? Nothing showing on radar. We had a short burst of moderate snowfall which left a coating. The 06 GFS gives us a few inches of snow then over an inch of freezing rain Feb 4-5. I'll pass, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Myrtle Beach SC is looking good too lol. I saw that. I have to laugh because I have friends who moved down there to escape the snow...not that it's likely that kind of snow will actually verify down there, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 3/4" from the 2 snow squalls that past through York,Pa. A win to me. Wish something would materialize this week/weekend, but I highly doubt it . Expectations are extremely low. I must have had one of those renegade bands overnight, had about a half inch of snow on our formerly clean cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So far tonight the GFS and the GGEM are alot flatter in the east late next week and beyond keeping us on the cold side of the gradient. GFS was active with storms too. Like I said last night, a high risk high reward type pattern looks to be emerging. If we can stay in the right place we'll be in the business of glacier building with what will probably be multiple snow/ice threats. Now we just need the Euro to get rid of that dumpster fire of a raging southeast ridge it had last night..although it seemed to be heading in that direction as well on it's 12z run todat The euro always seems to do that this winter and it has been wrong! The se ridge will hurt areas further south but so much up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I wonder if it's tendency this winter to overamp stuff actually works on our side here for once. Two other things; it now takes the little storm next weekend to our south as opposed to our north, and the end of the run looks pretty interesting. Yea it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out the next few days as models get a better handle on just what we're gonna be dealing with around this time next week. I tend to think the GFS/Canadian evolution of things last night is probably a safer way to go for now with the somewhat flatter pattern with the Euro possibly being a bit too amped. Although there are some cons with this upcoming pattern i've been watching. The MJO for instance,has been lurking along the phase 6/7 line and depending on the model has been forecast to either bust into phase 6 or loop more into phase 7 and back toward the circle. I've not really seen much discussion at all about this aspect. Phases 6 and 7 are warm phases, and a solid phase 6 is about a guaranteed torch in the eastern US normally. EPO is forecast to neutralize around the 4th/5th with a general continued -PNA and +NAO. Just don't know yet how well we're gonna cash in on what should be quite an active pattern. That loaded Euro storm at the end of the run had a chance of staying underneath with lack of phasing. Euro control run (which goes out to 360) looked quite similar to the Euro on the Feb 2-3 and the Gulf storm at 240h. Proceeds to throttle all of C-PA at 252h with a perfectly tracked low. If only.. haha. It does show how stormy this pattern could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yea it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out the next few days as models get a better handle on just what we're gonna be dealing with around this time next week. I tend to think the GFS/Canadian evolution of things last night is probably a safer way to go for now with the somewhat flatter pattern with the Euro possibly being a bit too amped. Although there are some cons with this upcoming pattern i've been watching. The MJO for instance,has been lurking along the phase 6/7 line and depending on the model has been forecast to either bust into phase 6 or loop more into phase 7 and back toward the circle. I've not really seen much discussion at all about this aspect. Phases 6 and 7 are warm phases, and a solid phase 6 is about a guaranteed torch in the eastern US normally. EPO is forecast to neutralize around the 4th/5th with a general continued -PNA and +NAO. Just don't know yet how well we're gonna cash in on what should be quite an active pattern. combined_image.png 4panel-1.png That loaded Euro storm at the end of the run had a chance of staying underneath with lack of phasing. Euro control run (which goes out to 360) looked quite similar to the Euro on the Feb 2-3 and the Gulf storm at 240h. Proceeds to throttle all of C-PA at 252h with a perfectly tracked low. If only.. haha. It does show how stormy this pattern could be. What's that significance thing mean? It says 0% for phase 6 for the winter months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Radar shows pretty good snows over SW PA. Models had this stuff breaking up in Ohio. Maybe not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z NAM still has the Florida Panhandle, SE Georgia, South Carolina snow blitz. 6-12 inches in some locations per this map...lol http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=26&model_init_hh=12&fhour=78¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 What's that significance thing mean? It says 0% for phase 6 for the winter months? Those significance maps to the right of the temp anomaly maps indicate the statistical significance of those temp anomalies. A lower percentage indicates less chance of said anomalies being randomly happened upon and hence greater statistical significance. Basically, a higher percentage likely indicates more of a spread in the data used to compile the anomaly maps for each phase. The temp maps for phases 4,5, and 6 are generally very high confidence outcomes in the eastern US, which is why they're quite frowned upon by winter weather fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is it just me or does it look like the clipper is going to directly hit? All the heavy returns are running the MD/PA line due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is it just me or does it look like the clipper is going to directly hit? All the heavy returns are running the MD/PA line due east. The RAP via Twisterdata showed the precip making it over the mountains and the column saturating by 17-19z. However, the best lift moves north so our snow showers should then focus around I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What's that significance thing mean? It says 0% for phase 6 for the winter months? It refers to the p-value or the probability that the temperature anomaly at that point occurred simply by chance. The lower the significance, the better the correlation between the MJO and the temperature anomaly. Yea it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out the next few days as models get a better handle on just what we're gonna be dealing with around this time next week. I tend to think the GFS/Canadian evolution of things last night is probably a safer way to go for now with the somewhat flatter pattern with the Euro possibly being a bit too amped. Although there are some cons with this upcoming pattern i've been watching. The MJO for instance,has been lurking along the phase 6/7 line and depending on the model has been forecast to either bust into phase 6 or loop more into phase 7 and back toward the circle. I've not really seen much discussion at all about this aspect. Phases 6 and 7 are warm phases, and a solid phase 6 is about a guaranteed torch in the eastern US normally. EPO is forecast to neutralize around the 4th/5th with a general continued -PNA and +NAO. Just don't know yet how well we're gonna cash in on what should be quite an active pattern. combined_image.png 4panel-1.png That loaded Euro storm at the end of the run had a chance of staying underneath with lack of phasing. Euro control run (which goes out to 360) looked quite similar to the Euro on the Feb 2-3 and the Gulf storm at 240h. Proceeds to throttle all of C-PA at 252h with a perfectly tracked low. If only.. haha. It does show how stormy this pattern could be. Interesting situation in the tropical domain. The GFS forecasts the MJO to persist in the phase 6 region with fairly significant negative OLR anomalies for the next 1-2 weeks. This persistant diabatic heating should increase the mid-level temperature gradient. The GFS shows this heating perturbing the east Asian jet , causing it to become unstable (wavy) and generate a closed low downstream in the central North Pacific. This blocks up the pattern and a highly anomalous ridge forms over the Bering Strait by the end of the forecast period. That seems to be the cause of the rise toward neutral and positive for the EPO, as a low retrogrades downstream of the block in the Gulf of Alaska. There may be a temporary rise in heights over the eastern US but any troughing in the Gulf of Alaska may continue to retrograde, putting us in a more favorable position for lower heights. FWIW, the 00z Euro control run has this block over the central North Pacific at hr 360, however the greatest ridging remains a bit west of the GFS over the Aleutians. I think this instability in the east Asian jet (as a result of the MJO forcing) will have some influence in changing around the North American height pattern. Exactly what happens will depend on where these features develop and how long they persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The RAP via Twisterdata showed the precip making it over the mountains and the column saturating by 17-19z. However, the best lift moves north so our snow showers should then focus around I-80. Woot!!! We'll take them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Light snow has arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS has ice storm at 204 then massive snow storm at 264. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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