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DDweatherman

1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

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Models starting to converge on the likelihood of a cold 1-2" snow in the area Tuesday. Agree with Wes on the potential for 20-1 ratios with cold air in place. <32 for DC for the duration, so enjoy. Upside potential exists with the low pressure developing off the Atlantic coastline. 

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12z RGEM looks interesting enough at 48 with its h5 depiction and what looks to be a SLP off NC coast

It did the best with our last overperformer on Jan 2nd.

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12z RGEM looks interesting enough at 48 with its h5 depiction and what looks to be a SLP off NC coast

yep, looking at the 700MB rh map, it wants to snow on us after 48 hrs

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

actually has snow breaking out by the 48 hr. map

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif

 

won't be a big deal, but maybe we can get a scrawny inch out of it

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yep, looking at the 700MB rh map, it wants to snow on us after 48 hrs

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

actually has snow breaking out by the 48 hr. map

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif

 

won't be a big deal, but maybe we can get a scrawny inch out of it

Eh with 16:1 or better ratios, think 2-3" is not entirely impossible. 

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high ratios rarely work out around here though

1/30/10 was the last time of consequence imby

Oh I'm well aware, but I do like our 850's near the optimal snow growth zone. 

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At least the vort is to our south and its only a 2 days out. Seems likely that we something from it.

An inch or 2 that sticks around for a week is better than 5" that lasts a day.

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An inch or 2 that sticks around for a week is better than 5" that lasts a day.

False

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Yeah, I'd take the 5". Plus it's pretty much impossible for an inch of snow to last more than like 2 days around here.

With the temps we have this week 2" should stick around the whole time. Eh i just checked the temps it looks like Saturday we should get above freezing, I will take the 5".

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With the temps we have this week 2" should stick around the whole time. Eh i just checked the temps it looks like Saturday we should get above freezing, I will take the 5".

 

Man, you are setting them up for that ravensrules guy.

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How are snowfall ratios determined? Is it based on where the snow is formed or is it based on ground temperature or is it more complicated than that? (sorry if this belongs in the banter thread)

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How are snowfall ratios determined? Is it based on where the snow is formed or is it based on ground temperature or is it more complicated than that? (sorry if this belongs in the banter thread)

It's a good question as it is somewhat dependent on both.  Warm graound temps will make some of the snow melt but once the ground temp gets much below 32, ratios are more dependent on the temp within the column where the bulk of the snow is forming and on ho wmuch cloud water there is in the cloud.  Clippers don't have much cloud water so you don't have to worry about riming on the flakes.  You generally have nice crystals.  We'd prefer that they be dendrites which form in the cloud at around minus 15C. 

 

The Euro gives us a couple hundreds so it's on the low end of the qpf spectrum while the ukmet is on the really heavy side. 

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Man, you are setting them up for that ravensrules guy.

I heard he finally became mature so he does not joke about serious things such as that anymore. I am waiting for the storm that i need your help in measuring, hopefully sooner than later.

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It's a good question as it is somewhat dependent on both. Warm graound temps will make some of the snow melt but once the ground temp gets much below 32, ratios are more dependent on the temp within the column where the bulk of the snow is forming and on ho wmuch cloud water there is in the cloud. Clippers don't have much cloud water so you don't have to worry about riming on the flakes. You generally have nice crystals. We'd prefer that they be dendrites which form in the cloud at around minus 15C.

The Euro gives us a couple hundreds so it's on the low end of the qpf spectrum while the ukmet is on the really heavy side.

Do you know the QPF on the UKIE Wes? Like 0.3?

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