Rainman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is starting to look like a high to very-high ratio event. 18Z GFS forecast vertical profiles from STL to LAF are showing very deep ice crystal growth layers in the latter half of the event as the system pulls in increasingly cold air and omega remains centered over the DGZ. Yup. 15:1 (or better) with an inch of liquid anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The southern stream energy isn't comparable to this. I wouldn't worry about what happened with some storm in the 1970s. First time I've ever heard the 952 Cleveland Bomb referred to as "some storm in the 1970s". Respect the bomb dude ....about a 90% chance you'll never witness anything close to that in your lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 First time I've ever heard the 952 Cleveland Bomb referred to as "some storm in the 1970s". Respect the bomb dude ....about a 90% chance you'll never witness anything close to that in your lifetime. Probably scared of mixing or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 First time I've ever heard the 952 Cleveland Bomb referred to as "some storm in the 1970s". Respect the bomb dude ....about a 90% chance you'll never witness anything close to that in your lifetime. +1 I've always wondered how many people on this board actually experienced the '78 blizzard? It is affectionally known as 'Superstorm 78' locally......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 First time I've ever heard the 952 Cleveland Bomb referred to as "some storm in the 1970s". Respect the bomb dude ....about a 90% chance you'll never witness anything close to that in your lifetime. The weenies are fickle today. The point was that it's not a meteorologically relevant comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If anyone wants to flip through the maps of that January 1994 storm, here ya go: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0117.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0118.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The weenies are fickle today. The point was that it's not a meteorologically relevant comparison. I disagree completely. You can learn more from semi similar analogs than straight forward comparisons many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I have been under this sucker all day and it is raining quite hard here with a very low cloud ceiling, in fact it was almost dark outside at 2 p.m. and dark as night half an hour before sunset. Something ominous comes your way. Name suggestions -- Mississippi mauler, Bee Gees Reunion Tour, Abba Shovel? and (this is probably years out) The Immaculate Cyclogenesis Well, I hand-drew a map on the morning of 01-26-1978 in Toronto and if that was a 10, this looks like about a 7 so far, maybe we can pump it up to a 9 before we're done. By the way, speaking of 70s storms, this one reminds me a bit of the mid-January snowstorm before the severe cold wave in Jan 1976, think it was 15th-16th or thereabouts, was followed by record cold in Ontario at least. About ten inches of snow, this one may be a sort of average of that and the 1978 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We need a good wagons north 0z suite to make things more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The weenies are fickle today. The point was that it's not a meteorologically relevant comparison. I know I was just fking with you. And of course there's no comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We need a good wagons north 0z suite to make things more interesting Speak for yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We need a good wagons north 0z suite to make things more interesting How bout a compromise and we go with a 980mb low just east of Cleveland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 How bout a compromise and we go with a 980mb low just east of Cleveland? +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 +1 I've always wondered how many people on this board actually experienced the '78 blizzard? It is affectionally known as 'Superstorm 78' locally......... I was in 7th grade and up until the day before that storm I had about as much interest in weather as in bird watching....which was none. January 28th, 1978 I grew my weather weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 such a tough call... wave spacing between the current system and the vort crashing into the Pac NW 0z Friday is really tight....IMO it should limit how much heights are able to crank. If this energy trends slower, potential for a much stronger/NW solution jumps...any faster and the opposite. The 850 WAA being advertised in the plains continues to pique my interest. Baroclinic zone over the southern plains is going to be pretty intense. You have to wonder if cyclogenesis is a little under done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 How bout a compromise and we go with a 980mb low just east of Cleveland? seriously can you guys give me 25 miles southeast....just 25??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 On January 2, 1999, a blizzard hit southeast Michigan and continued into the early morning hours of the 3rd. Detroit Metro Airport received 11.3 inches, Flint had 8.5 inches and Tri Cities Airport in Freeland received 13.2 inches. Between 10 and 15 inches of snow fell over many areas south of M-59, and between 5 to 13 inches across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions. Repeat, couple days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Mix in one part Jan 1978, one part Jan 1999. Stir and serve. Might as well go crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The closest thing I experienced in regards to the blizzard of 78 was the March Superstorm of 1993 when I was in high school living in the suburbs of Philadelphia. I've never seen a storm like that before, nor do I ever expect to see one like it again. That was the most impressive display of power I've ever seen in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The closest thing I experienced in regards to the blizzard of 78 was the March Superstorm of 1993 when I was in high school living in the suburbs of Philadelphia. I've never seen a storm like that before, nor do I ever expect to see one like it again. That was the most impressive display of power I've ever seen in person.I went to high school in philly burbs too. You there for the Blizzard of '96? Thats my all timd fav, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FWIW, if we don't start seeing consistent trends either way over the next few model runs, you can probably lock the general idea in. If this is going to be a big dog (either west or east) you have to image we'll start seeing some increasing model consensus/ensemble agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I was in 7th grade and up until the day before that storm I had about as much interest in weather as in bird watching....which was none. January 28th, 1978 I grew my weather weenie. I was in first year university and the storm went from rain to snow about 7 AM. I got a ride to school that morning, but every class was cancelled after I got there. Eventually they closed the university which almost never happened and if you didn't live on campus it was basically 'get out'..... Walked home in the storm which was about 2 miles. A couple of people in the city got lost in the blizzard and ended up freezing to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 STL plumes range from 1/2" (large cluster) to 13" and are tightly clustered under 4". So potential but a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I went to high school in philly burbs too. You there for the Blizzard of '96? Thats my all timd fav, Wow, what school? I went to Marple Newtown. Yeah, I was there for the 96 one. That was the most impressive in terms of snowfall that I've seen, but it paled in comparison to the power of the 93 one. Not even close really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 On January 2, 1999, a blizzard hit southeast Michigan and continued into the early morning hours of the 3rd. Detroit Metro Airport received 11.3 inches, Flint had 8.5 inches and Tri Cities Airport in Freeland received 13.2 inches. Between 10 and 15 inches of snow fell over many areas south of M-59, and between 5 to 13 inches across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions. Repeat, couple days later? Howell came in with 7 inches. LOL Howell dominates much of SE Michigan in the total snow department, but we suck at big dogs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I moved from Germany to the states back in 1999, I have yet to experience true blizzard conditions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wow, what school? I went to Marple Newtown. Yeah, I was there for the 96 one. That was the most impressive in terms of snowfall that I've seen, but it paled in comparison to the power of the 93 one. Not even close really.Archbishop Wood in Bucks County. Agreed about differences in 93 & 96 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 SREF mean at 6" for DTW....seems like a pretty good call atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Closest I've come to blizzard conditions was December 19, 1995 in the northern Miami Valley in Ohio. Had about 16" with 40mph winds. Drifts were crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 through 15 hours the nam already looks better. PV is slightly NW. EPAC ridge is a bit more amplified. Shortwave is more compact and a touch sharper and slower with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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