harrisale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yup. Flight supposed to leave at 6:55am on Monday. I think the worst will be over by 12z so I'm hoping for a delay rather than cancellation. Also, I hate to be a debbie downer...but this is a thread the needle event. Slop storm still on the table. Yep and here's the 12Z EURO text to illustrate that (this run did come in colder than the 00Z though). NW shift would not be optimal. Even if it means a somewhat weaker system a SLIGHT SE trend would keep us safely all SN. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z JAN02 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 05-JAN -1.2 -6.9 1018 87 99 0.05 547 533 SUN 18Z 05-JAN 0.3 -7.6 1016 81 84 0.07 545 532 MON 00Z 06-JAN -0.9 -7.1 1011 94 100 0.10 542 533 MON 06Z 06-JAN -1.1 -4.2 997 96 100 0.36 533 536 MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.5 -8.9 995 80 99 0.37 517 521 MON 18Z 06-JAN -6.3 -17.8 1002 63 67 0.01 508 506 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If this tracks a bit north, thats 2 hits for LOT/Chicago area in 1 week. Back to the gas station for snowblower gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yup. Flight supposed to leave at 6:55am on Monday. I think the worst will be over by 12z so I'm hoping for a delay rather than cancellation. Also, I hate to be a debbie downer...but this is a thread the needle event. Slop storm still on the table. Agree. 0z CMC/euro ensembles were further SE, so hopefully we do see a slight jog in that direction. Either way, nice to have something interesting to track, especially considering that we are getting into the home stretch now for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If this tracks a bit north, thats 2 hits for LOT/Chicago area in 1 week. Back to the gas station for snowblower gas. Chicago proper at least could be kinda interesting if the foreign runs are on the right track. On the fringe of good system snows but probably better ratios with even some potential lake enhancement as the low passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Tainted with today's system, but this is what the EURO shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Afternoon AFD should be interesting for multiple offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Forecasters here in Louisville are predicting that the storm will continue to jog NW on the models. I hope there wrong but with no snow on the ground in some parts of Southern Indiana, they're thinking that will prevent the storm from diving further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Forecasters here in Louisville are predicting that the storm will continue to jog NW on the models. I hope there wrong but with no snow on the ground in some parts of Southern Indiana, they're thinking that will prevent the storm from diving further south. not saying this will trend s or n but the amount of snow on the ground in S. Indiana won't play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 not saying this will trend s or n but the amount of snow on the ground in S. Indiana won't play a role. Yeah I wasn't understanding that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The nam out to 33 hours is going to crack this time. Major shift coming. Trough is sharper, shortwave is digging more. EPAC ridge is more amplified. ridge over EUSA is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The nam out to 33 hours is going to crack this time. Major shift coming. Trough is sharper, shortwave is digging more. EPAC ridge is more amplified. ridge over EUSA is more amplified. Yeah I think it's going to make a move. Whether it's all the way toward the bomb solution remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I hadn't even looked at modeling on this until now. Had no idea 850s warm to near 0 in Chicago ahead of the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone got the GEM QPF output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah I think it's going to make a move. Whether it's all the way toward the bomb solution remains to be seen. By 42 Hours we can see the PV is definitely "heavy" West vs earlier nam runs. quite a bit more ridging out front in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I hadn't even looked at modeling on this until now. Had no idea 850s warm to near 0 in Chicago ahead of the arctic front. Sweating p-types already? Really though, it's been modeled for awhile with the northern stream front runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone got the GEM QPF output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z euro ensemble mean has a track from central AR through Columbus and up just west of montreal. Has ~0.7" of QPF from detroit through toronto and up to ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sweating p-types already? Really though, it's been modeled for awhile with the northern stream front runner. haha, not at all, just wasn't paying attention. I don't think this comes far enough NW to give me more than fringe snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lock it up (EC ENS). No offense to anyone on top/below of the track of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the differences at H5 on this run are huge. It may not be a bomb but it will probably match or pass the 12z gfs in terms of what most of us want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lock it up (EC ENS). No offense to anyone on top/below of the track of course. Yep good track for St Louis/Springfield/Lafayette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z NAM looks nice for Chicago especially south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z NAM looks nice for Chicago especially south side. 12z wasn't bad either...seems to be decent non-gfs agreement on accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah band of snow along the front develops and stalls out nicely here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z euro ensemble mean has a track from central AR through Columbus and up just west of montreal. Has ~0.7" of QPF from detroit through toronto and up to ottawa. On the paysite I use, the ensemble mean at 84 hrs has low centered over Portsmouth OH, (basically where OH,WV,and KY all meet), vs. the OP which has it closer to Cincy. So if we're splitting hairs it's really about 40 or 50 miles east. Since the OP has me 25 miles from the 20" snows....that's a hair worth splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah band of snow along the front develops and stalls out nicely here it's always nice to be riding the northern edge of these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah band of snow along the front develops and stalls out nicely here 18z NAM would probably be warning criteria near I-80 and into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 it's always nice to be riding the northern edge of these setups. I don't think the main system comes that far NW to affect me but maybe city and points SE for say 3-5" after what develops Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z NAM would probably be warning criteria near I-80 and into the city. Nice size swath of .50"+ liquid from EOK to Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 it's always nice to be riding the northern edge of these setups. yep...much rather be surfing the nw edge than hoping for a small shift southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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