Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This one should be a miss southeast here as it looks now. Don't see it coming this far NW. Works every time my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This one should be a miss southeast here as it looks now. Don't see it coming this far NW. Chicago gets fringed, south and east parts of the metro get an advisory type snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Works every time my friend. So when you are moving up north... Permanently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If this isn't allowed take it down. This is from our local forum. Out to 84 hours. I cropped it in. Enjoy. Oh yeah it's the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So when you are moving up north... Permanently? The hell...I'm good luck. Who else had three 6"+ storms in 2013? And Bo doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Euro is huge for here, DTX already has 3-5" in the zones for Saturday Night/Sunday. Just to clarify, the Euro has about 0.9-1.1" liquid equivalent for SEMI south of a line from BTL to BAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The hell...I'm good luck. Who else had three 6"+ storms in 2013? And Bo doesn't count. 2 so far here, this would be the third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 looks like a nice pack refresher before siberia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just to clarify, the Euro has about 0.9-1.1" liquid equivalent for SEMI south of a line from BTL to BAX. And ratios would probably be 15/17/20-1 for most of us. We are now 54-66 hours out from a potentially historic winter storm. Pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sounds like the Euro would be a slop storm down here in Columbus. Here's hoping it's too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 And ratios would probably be 15/17/20-1 for most of us. We are now 54-66 hours out from a potentially historic winter storm. Pretty wild. There are still model inconsistencies though at this junction just like the current storm, Euro has locked in on a solution which it did with the current storm and did really well on it. The GFS/NAM had all sorts of solutions with the current event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 And ratios would probably be 15/17/20-1 for most of us. We are now 54-66 hours out from a potentially historic winter storm. Pretty wild. Using 10:1 ratios off the WeenieBell EURO snow maps (subtract some snow from today's storm contamination): 12Z EURO: YYZ: 10.4" DTW: 10-11" FWA: 11.0" IND: 10.7" Nice 13.4" lolli around Lima, OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GFS ensembles don't look super hot in general but at this point it seems like there's plenty of other support for something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM doesn't play ball either fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM doesn't play ball either fwiw I've mentioned it before but anecdotally it seems like when we get into this foreign vs domestic model battle the foreign ones are usually closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the nam is conceptually close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've mentioned it before but anecdotally it seems like when we get into this foreign vs domestic model battle the foreign ones are usually closer to reality. Agreed. (Although maybe that has more to do with the fact that there are simply more foreign models than domestic...so its really just the majority forecast that ends up being right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know its superiority isn't like it used to be, but what is this...like 4-5 runs in a row for the Euro? I'd be kinda surprised if something in the ballpark of its solution doesn't happen at this point. Plus, this isn't 5-6 days away. But...never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GFS ensembles don't look super hot in general but at this point it seems like there's plenty of other support for something big. 6z GFS plyed ball but 12z suddenly shifted back to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So as we stand at 12z. GEM, EURO, UkMET, Navgem, JMA. With the GFS mostly on board and the NAM out to lunch. Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know its superiority isn't like it used to be, but what is this...like 4-5 runs in a row for the Euro? I'd be kinda surprised if something in the ballpark of its solution doesn't happen at this point. Plus, this isn't 5-6 days away. But...never say never. Probably more like 7 or 8, hell some of the earlier runs were triple phaser amped, so this has come back down since then. GFS will blink on this, probably soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know its superiority isn't like it used to be, but what is this...like 4-5 runs in a row for the Euro? I'd be kinda surprised if something in the ballpark of its solution doesn't happen at this point. Plus, this isn't 5-6 days away. But...never say never. It did the same thing for here a few weeks ago and it ended up being a miss to the NW haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It did the same thing for here a few weeks ago and it ended up being a miss to the NW haha I'm not saying it can't track NW. I'm just saying some, if not quite a few of the people in this sub-forum are gonna see some legit snow. And it's gonna be glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Tasty gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm not saying it can't track NW. I'm just saying some, if not quite a few of the people in this sub-forum are gonna see some legit snow. And it's gonna be glorious. Yes, glorious....great word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Tasty gradient. Look at the Siberian air. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If the NWS forecasted for us, we'd have had 2-3 blizzard warnings over the last 10-15 years. Their criteria isn't that much different but they bend the rules more. Basically if you're going to see widespread 12-16" with some wind they'll hoist one. Sort of a de facto higher tiered snowfall warning to convey to the public it isn't your run of the mill 6"er. And I might get an extended vacation if the EURO verifies. You flying out to YEG monday? Really impressive euro run with pretty much an ideal track for us. Defo band really gets cranking once the centre of LP gets near syracuse. Euro has gusts to 65kph+ near YYZ at the height of the storm, with gusts to 80 over the TO islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You flying out to YEG monday? Really impressive euro run with pretty much an ideal track for us. Defo band really gets cranking once the centre of LP gets near syracuse. Euro has gusts to 65kph+ near YYZ at the height of the storm, with gusts to 80 over the TO islands. Dare I say the ''B'' word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You flying out to YEG monday? Really impressive euro run with pretty much an ideal track for us. Defo band really gets cranking once the centre of LP gets near syracuse. Euro has gusts to 65kph+ near YYZ at the height of the storm, with gusts to 80 over the TO islands. Those would be some very impressive winds, easy white out conditions + massive drifts. 12Z EURO text was a bit better for us in terms of surface temperatures which would allow for some better ratios, particularly in the latter half of the storm (after a brief 6 hour period above zero at the start of the event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You flying out to YEG monday? Really impressive euro run with pretty much an ideal track for us. Defo band really gets cranking once the centre of LP gets near syracuse. Euro has gusts to 65kph+ near YYZ at the height of the storm, with gusts to 80 over the TO islands. Yup. Flight supposed to leave at 6:55am on Monday. I think the worst will be over by 12z so I'm hoping for a delay rather than cancellation. Also, I hate to be a debbie downer...but this is a thread the needle event. Slop storm still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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