RJSnowLover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS went a little NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z GFS...pretty good I think. Yep, an overall improvement from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z GFS...pretty good I think. yep looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 classic gfs baby step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yep, an overall improvement from the 12z. Yes the improvement is great at 500mb of course the surface isn't matching the 500mb so we will probably have to wait a run or so to see the surface reflection track further northwest than its current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just another 50 miles NW for the moneyshot. Just give me the blue's. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Time for a nap. We have 4 1/2 hours before potentially epicness will unfold or a massive let down. We all know at this stage one camp is going to fold. We also know which one that is. But you can never be to sure in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I have never been near 8" in one of these before this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, the other factor is the PV is neutrally tilted on this run and its ensembles vs positively tilted, the storm would probably bomb right after that snapshot. Timing and position is a key factor in this storm. If the PV digs far enough south and the wave across the south can phase with the wave across the North we could come close to what the Euro painted about 3-4 days ago when it showed a bomb near the GL's. We all know how horrible the models have performed this year but a few changes can make a huge impact. I favor a track just West of the Apps with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow, Louisville is almost in the moderate zone for 4+ inches of snow. I'd be happy with 4-6 inches of snow. All we need is four inches in 12 hours for it to be a WSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 LOT TRANSITIONING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AM GETTING A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH RESPECT TO THIS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAYS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE EXITING. ALTHOUGH...SOME GUIDANCE HANGS THIS SNOWFALL UP BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXACT LOCATION VARYING AT THIS TIME. IF THIS BETTER FORCING WOULD HANG UP...THEN SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW DURING THIS TIME WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. SO DID INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CWA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm excited for this. Finally, a real winter around the great lakes after two in a row that were complete duds...and that's regardless of whether or not this pans out for me.If we get another major snowfall (6"+) from this I'll be happy enough to call it a winter. Can't ask for much more than 3 storms in less than a month to deliver that threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The PV is so insane...i'm not sure what to expect trend wise going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What would a stronger PV do to the low pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think it's safe to say many will have an extended vacay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Skilling just showed one model's take (Assuming RPM) showing around 9" for mby and into Chicago. RPM did pretty well with the last system/LE event. Odds it's fairly accurate again this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What would a stronger PV do to the low pressure? I'll leave that to mets, my points was simply that this scenario doesn't play out too often. I'm not sure what kind of biases/trends are in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Skilling just showed one model's take (Assuming RPM) showing around 9" for mby and into Chicago. RPM did pretty well with the last system/LE event. Odds it's fairly accurate again this time? Anyone have a screenshot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'll leave that to mets, my points was simply that this scenario doesn't play out too often. I'm not sure what kind of biases/trends are in play here. Maybe the last time was 1994. That's the last time I can recall a major storm moving up the OV with a huge arctic high pressing down. That low moved through Kentucky south and east of the Ohio River, a bit further southeast than what models show the current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Have seen some people in various places throwing out the 1978 comparison, but this is quite a bit different as it stands now. Here is the 500 mb loop from the 1978 blizzard: Notice how that PV lobe dropped way south into Iowa and phased with the southern stream wave. We aren't quite seeing that in this case on most runs though the NAVGEM may have been closest. If the models become more amplified in the northern stream (and southern stream for that matter) then maybe we can start talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Anyone have a screenshot? can't find a screenshot. He'll be on again at 9:30 CST and will certainly show it again. It may have done fairly well with the current system, but I wouldn't count on it to be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 can't find a screenshot. He'll be on again at 9:30 CST and will certainly show it again. It may have done fairly well with the current system, but I wouldn't count on it to be accurate. Don't think it was the RPM. Guessing it was the most aggressive model he could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The 12z Euro taken verbatim would dump a foot over a wide swath of Southeast Michigan. With surface temps in the low 20s and 850mb temps around -12c, the Euro's insane QPF would also be accompanied by very good snow ratios. It wouldn't be slop, not even close. Also, nice to see the third rate American models finally come on board. Only a couple days behind the NOGAPS, lol. My call for DTW: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Have seen some people in various places throwing out the 1978 comparison, but this is quite a bit different as it stands now. Here is the 500 mb loop from the 1978 blizzard: Notice how that PV lobe dropped way south into Iowa and phased with the southern stream wave. We aren't quite seeing that in this case on most runs though the NAVGEM may have been closest. If the models become more amplified in the northern stream (and southern stream for that matter) then maybe we can start talking. If that were to happen, I'd be afraid the low may try cutting to far to the west to be a good hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Don't think it was the RPM. Guessing it was the most aggressive model he could find. 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 i'm not seeing anything to suggest the southern vort will dig anywhere near what '78 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 If that were to happen, I'd be afraid the low may try cutting to far to the west to be a good hit for us. The southern stream energy isn't comparable to this. I wouldn't worry about what happened with some storm in the 1970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is starting to look like a high to very-high ratio event. 18Z GFS forecast vertical profiles from STL to LAF are showing very deep ice crystal growth layers in the latter half of the event as the system pulls in increasingly cold air and omega remains centered over the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is starting to look like a high to very-high ratio event. 18Z GFS forecast vertical profiles from STL to LAF are showing very deep ice crystal growth layers in the latter half of the event as the system pulls in increasingly cold air and omega remains centered over the DGZ. Yeah, I noticed we had like a 300 mb DGZ toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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