Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 As the model shows Blizz, that is a triple phased monster with the PV dropping into the Ohio Valley...It will cut wherever the hell it wants to if that is the scenario at play LOL...Alas, that was obscenely extreme solution that isnt likely to verify One of those runs where the Euro just goes ballistic and overamps the thing. We're in the timeframe where it's been doing that since the upgrade. I'd be really surprised if any of the 51 Ens members show a solution like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 energy coming ashore in British Columbia, Canada. A ton of GOM moisture present. I think we end up with a phasing storm system. Again shocked you think that . But if anyone should be excited in this set up it's your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Are the models accounting for this? Eg: 12Z gfs has great saturation well in advance of any modeled qpf. My experience is models tend to not handle arctic air very well. As for the GFS it has a bias in that it tends to overfrecast qpf amounts when the atmosphere is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Again shocked you think that . But if anyone should be excited in this set up it's your area. Yeah complete shock, but again that's my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 But, arctic air over 43F water certainly helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think if the euro ensembles stayed the course, that's a real good sign for anyone wanting significant snows in sne. If they shift further southeast, huge red flag. Hopefully the op was getting in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The system on 1/6 could be either epic or a total turd. Not to sully this thread but the real face of the winter will have snow itself by 1/8. If go cirrus smoker/ball shrinking cold / Hudson Valley Heartbreaker it wouldn't be unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Again shocked you think that . But if anyone should be excited in this set up it's your area. You're really doing everything in your power to wish this away from happening in SNE. At least try and veil it a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yea the virga lasted longer in the HV than out here as I recall. Its more of an issue in very cold air. The 12/14-15 event here in ENY had several hours of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fwiw (not much) cmc ensemble mean wetter vs op. Moderate event for sne, less so NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I thought totals for that storm were fairly uniform across the area here for that storm. Ultimately it didn't make too much difference in the end, at least up this way. We still ended up with over a foot. Those monster bands late in the evening helped make up for it. Yea the virga lasted longer in the HV than out here as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The system on 1/6 could be either epic or a total turd. Not to sully this thread but the real face of the winter will have snow itself by 1/8. I think that one is gonna go inland, the NAO flips back to positive and that thing really amplifies early over the TN Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think that one is gonna go inland, the NAO flips back to positive and that thing really amplifies early over the TN Valley Going to be some furstrated weenies if this one transitions to 4" of fluff, then we see a monster cutter between epic arctic blasts. I'll want to lead the charge to strangle Leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Going to be some furstrated weenies if this one transitions to 4" of fluff, then we see a monster cutter between epic arctic blasts. I'll want to lead the charge to strangle Leon. I'd still take that over an '11-'12 type winter any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You're really doing everything in your power to wish this away from happening in SNE. At least try and veil it a littleHow is telling James he should be excited wishing it away from SNE? I'm lost.And did I not just tell you that I thought 4-8" looks reasonable for expectations to start and go up from there if it evolves bigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 How is telling James he should be excited wishing it away from SNE? I'm lost. Your earlier posts about suppression and the Jersey shore etc. At the very least this is a solid warning level overrunning event. Noone in SNE is coming out of this with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One of those runs where the Euro just goes ballistic and overamps the thing. We're in the timeframe where it's been doing that since the upgrade. I'd be really surprised if any of the 51 Ens members show a solution like that Yeah agreed. You might have like a 5% cluster that shows this out of the 51 ensembles, likely a huge outlier...Man was the entertaining to watch though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A few inches of fluff followed by some cold? It's not a dream scenario but I'd take that over a flip to a cold rain every day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Your earlier posts about suppression and the Jersey shore etc. At the very least this is a solid warning level overrunning event. Noone in SNE is coming out of this with nothing Ok sorry I had one post about suppression. I think most on here did too. And did I not just tell you 4-8" seemed like a reasonable starting point for you and go up from there if it evolves into something bigger? Sorry dude, no wishing it away lol. If nature gave a sh*t what I thought or wanted too, Mount Mansfield would get more snow than Mount Rainier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 When do the Euro ens come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles a 50-75 miles shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is true...the virga is kind of an 'academic point' as they say because the first 5/6 hours of that event was fairly light snow anyway. My final was 13" Wit last night's 3.5" I'm now at 31.6" for the season. Too bad 90% of that went down the gutter... I thought totals for that storm were fairly uniform across the area here for that storm. Ultimately it didn't make too much difference in the end, at least up this way. We still ended up with over a foot. Those monster bands late in the evening helped make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles definitely ticking south/offshore. Still a good hit but the trend is undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not all cutters have to be as catastrophic though as the four day torch from hell we endured last time. Maybe it will have a decent front end and then ice, etc. Going to be some furstrated weenies if this one transitions to 4" of fluff, then we see a monster cutter between epic arctic blasts. I'll want to lead the charge to strangle Leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In another day it will be congrats RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ensembles definitely ticking south/offshore. Still a good hit but the trend is undeniable. SW CT JACKPOT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well...at least we have plenty of cold air around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In another day it will be congrats RIC I'd rather see spring start tonight, then another sw CT jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro ens have accumulating snow to the Canadian boider I just read. drain the water out of the tub folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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