Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I agree on progressive flow. Wind anomalies at H250 are +1 to +2 westerly. This is a progressive event. If they were negative and easterly then you would be looking at a longer duration event. This is stil a 24-36 hour event..This isn't a 12-18 hour deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't like Miller As.....something always goes wrong up here.This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nope, that was the GFS showing that. You are thinking of that Feb 2-3, 2009 storm where the Euro insisted on the inverted trough idea but the GFS was trying to show a KU. That said, I wouldn't get latched onto the idea of a KU type system here either. The flow is progressive so I'd favor something lighter...but that doesn't mean we still can't get a big event. Its just that a lot of things have to work almost perfectly for 12"+ totals. Euro has basically done that the past couple runs. If it continues to show it a couple more runs as we get inside 84 hours, then I'll start biting. Yea, right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 All winter we've heard this just isn't the year for a KU. I'd keep expectations in check for 8+ and hope we can go big You need to reign it in with the weenie posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 You need to reign it in with the weenie posts. Excuse me? I just told folks to keep expectations in check for 8+ and you pull this? WTF You owe an apology for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just about all guidance still has a long duration event. Don't sell to bonus of that initial overrunning short. It almost always is under modeled. Wasn't there an event though a little while ago that was modeled like 4 days out to have long duration light over-running snows prior to the main show and then never ended up materializing? I swear we had one of those already where folks were saying the same thing about not under estimating the high ratio light snows ahead of the system and then it never happened except maybe far SW CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is stil a 24-36 hour event..This isn't a 12-18 hour deal I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is stil a 24-36 hour event..This isn't a 12-18 hour deal Not so sure thirty six hour but I'll give potential twenty four. It may actually be something of a two part event with PIVA and WAA then a break as secondary gets going. Prior to secondary snowfall may lighten up, even stop in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 All winter we've heard this just isn't the year for a KU. I'd keep expectations in check for 8+ and hope we can go bigWait...who hacked Kevin's account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm not trying to get a discussion going about where to live because of snow, that's just stupid, I'm just saying I would favor eastern areas in this setup more so than western areas. Western areas beat me out every time. So that is stupid to start an argument based on snow. I know my place believe me. I'm just a little more excited about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wait...who hacked Kevin's account? And then Ryan posts that I need to reign it in.. what is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wasn't there an event though a little while ago that was modeled like 4 days out to have long duration light over-running snows prior to the main show and then never ended up materializing? I swear we had one of those already where folks were saying the same thing about not under estimating the high ratio light snows ahead of the system and then it never happened except maybe far SW CT? The 12/14-15 event...it still ended up like an 18 hour event tho. The initial overrunnning though was lessened as we got inside 36 hours. We'll see if that happens here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 All winter we've heard this just isn't the year for a KU. I'd keep expectations in check for 8+ and hope we can go big I'd agree with that...start in 40/70's CJ range of 3-6/4-8" and see if it can turn into 8"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12/14-15 event...it still ended up like an 18 hour event tho. The initial overrunnning though was lessened as we got inside 36 hours. We'll see if that happens here too. Yeah that's the one...I just remember folks going nuts over like 4 straight 6-hr panels of .1-.25" QPF before the main event and then it faded significantly in the lead up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'd agree with that...start in 40/70's CJ range of 3-6/4-8" and see if it can turn into 8"+.Apparently telling folks to keep expectations in check means I have to reign it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Also as an aside, keep in mind how cold and DRY the atmosphere will be as this system approaches. We could wind up with a few/several hours of virga before the atmospheric column moistens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The system on 1/6 could be either epic or a total turd. Not to sully this thread but the real face of the winter will have snow itself by 1/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Apparently telling folks to keep expectations in check means I have to reign it in Well the keeping "expectations in check to 8"+" is more of an oxymoron than sound advice. Maybe if you said 4-8 instead. 8 inches minimum isn't conservative at all at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Also as an aside, keep in mind how cold and DRY the atmosphere will be as this system approaches. We could wind up with a few/several hours of virga before the atmospheric column moistens up. I actually think that's less of an issue when it's so cold. Ability to hold moisture is low so like 12/17, it wrings out immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well the keeping "expectations in check to 8"+" is more of an oxymoron than sound advice. Maybe if you said 4-8 instead. 8 inches minimum isn't conservative at all at this time range.we could sneeze and get 6-8 out of this setup. If I wasn't reigning it in I would be calling for 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I actually think that's less of an issue when it's so cold. Ability to hold moisture is low so like 12/17, it wrings out immediately. Its more of an issue in very cold air. The 12/14-15 event here in ENY had several hours of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I definitely see how this setup gets us a KU, but I need more data before jumping the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Here is how I look at it. If the 12z EC ensembles don't waver that far..like 50 miles give or take...then I would feel a lot better. If they shift south like 100+ miles...then I would pretty much toss the euro op. I mean wipe azz and then toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looks like an advisory event if you go by these current runs at best for BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its more of an issue in very cold air. The 12/14-15 event here in ENY had several hours of virga. Are the models accounting for this? Eg: 12Z gfs has great saturation well in advance of any modeled qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 energy coming ashore in British Columbia, Canada. A ton of GOM moisture present. I think we end up with a phasing storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good read. ...SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EASTERN U.S. DAYS 2AND 3......SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE: 12Z GFSCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD SPREAD AND RUN TO RUNCONTINUITY PROBS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OFSHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THECENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WED...AND ULTIMATELY WITH HOW THIS ENERGYARRIVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THURS WHILE ATTEMPTING TO DRIVEMULTIPLE WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ESP THE12Z UKMET TRENDED WEAKER/FLATTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGINGSEWD DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND OH VLY...AND APPEAR TOHAVE TRENDED TWD THE WEAKER/FLATTER 12Z NAM/12Z GFS CAMP. THE 12ZGEM GLOBAL IS EVEN WEAKER/FLATTER THAN 00Z RUN WHICH WAS FLATTER.THE NEW ECMWF DESPITE THE WEAKER TREND IS STILL THE MOSTAGGRESSIVE/STRONGEST MODEL AND SUPPORTS STRONGERCYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE FOCUS IS NOW OVER THE LWR MS VLY AND TNVLY...WITH SOME HINT AT SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENT JUST OFF THE VACAPES BY THURS EVE. THE 12Z UKMET FAVORS STRONGER CYCLOGENESISFARTHER SOUTH DOWN TWD THE GULF COAST SINCE IT HAS MORE ENERGYDIGGING FARTHER SOUTH STILL. THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND 12Z GEMGLOBAL ALL HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SURFACE WAVEDEVELOPING AND CROSSING THE OH VLY MAINLY WED NIGHT AND THENREDEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON THURS. THE 12Z NAM IS ANORTHERLY OUTLIER WITH ITS OH VLY LOW THOUGH AND IS THE MOSTPROGRESSIVE SOLN. EVEN THE UKMET DESPITE ITS LOWER PRESSURESFARTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COAST INITIALLY...STILL ALLOWS FORSURFACE REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURS.SO...ULTIMATELY THE ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWEST AND STRONGESTSOLN...BUT THE TREND IS TWD A SOMEWHAT WEAKER/FLATTER AND MOREPROGRESSIVE SOLN. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN FAVORS THE 12Z GFS...WITH THE00Z ECENS MEAN FAVORING A SOLN THAT SPLITS THE DIFF BETWEEN THE12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AT BEST ATTM...BUTTHE DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTCANADA WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OH VLY PER THEGFS SOLN...AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NAM. THE IDEA WOULD BE FORA MORE PROGRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY WEAKER REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWPRESSURE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THURS.THEREAFTER...MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ISEXPECTED. BASED ON THIS AND THE MODEL SPREAD...WILL FAVOR THE 12ZGFS WHICH TENDS TO HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND ALSO HAS SOMECLUSTERING SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 12Z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 But yesterday you said an OTS solution was off the table Yes meaning a complete whiff. That's wha tOTS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 With the cold overwhelming the pattern that has very little chance of being a wArm storm. Prob some type of secondary As the model shows Blizz, that is a triple phased monster with the PV dropping into the Ohio Valley...It will cut wherever the hell it wants to if that is the scenario at play LOL...Alas, that was obscenely extreme solution that isnt likely to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Good read. Translation: Get the toaster bath ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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