Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 ya..these DC only storms always work out An unusually high # of 6z gefs members agree with the op. This one has legs. They may be skinny little get away sticks but I'm liking it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 An unusually high # of 6z gefs members agree with the op. This one has legs. They may be skinny little get away sticks but I'm liking it for now. whats up with the european...it has this deep inland storm that no other model has between 96 and 120 hours..of course its warm rain but no other model has this i think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just look at the 500 ht spaghetti charts beyond next weekend. Hard to have much faith in the GFS when there is no clustering of the individual ens members...literally all over the place.Members actually look ok. Pretty active and enough amplification to provide ops through the whole run. It's going to be a weird period it looks like. Some warm days, some cool days, and some timed opportunities. Definitely a move towards the euro ens but the euro ens warmed up a bit. All in all it looks like an "ok" period starting mid next week and beyond. If we do get snow it probably won't stay on the ground for more than a couple days after. I don't care about that as much as others. I like tracking and measuring. Give my kids a day or 2 on the hill and I'm good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 whats up with the european...it has this deep inland storm that no other model has between 96 and 120 hours..of course its warm rain but no other model has this i think.... Euro is more amped with with a strong vort at the bottom that has nowhere to go except west of us. Canadian has the same thing. GFS is a better setup @ h5 with the stronger ns low setting it up for the trailer. I would say all options are on the table. The only comfort about the chance is that the gfs is showing it over and over...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro is more amped with with a strong vort at the bottom that has nowhere to go except west of us. Canadian has the same thing. GFS is a better setup @ h5 with the stronger ns low setting it up for the trailer. I would say all options are on the table. The only comfort about the chance is that the gfs is showing it over and over...for now. canadien is much more east than the european though...canadien shows a coastal storm. i think the euro is wrong/overamplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 canadien is much more east than the european though...canadien shows a coastal storm. i think the euro is wrong/overamplified Hard to say but I agree in some ways. It's a fast and amplified flow. We're going to get sprayed with various looks. Timing and placement will make or break. I would think that anything will likely sneak up at shorter leads and we shouldn't get caught up in verbatim details this far out. My guess is the euro loses the big rainer @ 12z. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 ya..these DC only storms always work out well, central VA gets jackpotted, so this one does have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just a piece of friendly advice......you're new here. Establish your presence here with posts other than opinions for a while. Your post came across in a pretty negative light. That's probably because nobody "knows" you yet. I agree with some of what you say. Long range discussion always has pattern or indices splashed all over it. I've said basically the same thing you did. Those are modeled patterns, modeled indices, and modeled means. Sometimes they do a good job of getting the "picture" right. Other times, they miss by a long ways. That's why the pattern can look good on Monday, and terrible on Thursday. However, these same people that you pointed out that seemingly hug each model run, either op or ensemble, have the skill to be able to recognize legit features and to discard bogus solutions. I don't have that ability. So, I come here to read their thoughts. I think your post, while containing some validity, came across as dismissive of their abilities. You may not have intended it that way, but, like I said, nobody here "knows" you yet. Just my 2 cents. Good post. I am always always kidding around. And yes, it is better to establish your sense of humor over time considering how hard it is for people to understand someone's humor via a forum. Just my 2 cents. Euro bias at holding energy out west! There's our 1961 redux storm! Have that angry new guy who hates you start a thread!Haha, I 100% do not dislike Bob Chill. It's actually quite the opposite. I enjoy reading his discussion and I've been reading on the forum for about 6 months now. I should rename myself "AngryGuy"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Haha, I 100% do not dislike Bob Chill. It's actually quite the opposite. I enjoy reading his discussion and I've been reading on the forum for about 6 months now. I should rename myself "AngryGuy"! No worries. My skin is titanium in these parts. And don't worry about the name. We already did it for you. Ji, euro ensembles definitely have a better look @ h5 for wed-thurs next week compared to the op. There must be plenty of members showing a more east track. There's a stupid delay with ind member output from last nights run so I don't have it yet. I'm pretty sure some members are going to show snow. ETA: Member data is up. Not as bullish as I though. About 8-10 show snow and nothing really of consequence. I'll hug the gfs for now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 ETA: Member data is up. Not as bullish as I though. About 8-10 show snow and nothing really of consequence. I'll hug the gfs for now. lol So, you'll hug the GFS for the medium and the Euro for the long term. Careful, they get bitter and nasty when they are jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 So, you'll hug the GFS for the medium and the Euro for the long term. Careful, they get bitter and nasty when they are jealous. I've been trained by the most skilled weenies in the universe. I will hug the snowiest model at all times. Sometimes secretly when it's the canadian and ukmet. I will bash any model that takes away my snow. It's all part of the creed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I've been trained by the most skilled weenies in the universe. I will hug the snowiest model at all times. Sometimes secretly when it's the canadian and ukmet. I will bash any model that takes away my snow. It's all part of the creed. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS is trying hard to figure out a way to go boom on the 15th. Nice dig on the vort and much less pos tilt compared to 6z. Suface low pops in central va. I'm sliding my ante in on the table right now... And it boomed. i95 jackpot of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS continues to advertise a 5 day mini storm with good looking upper air dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS is trying hard to figure out a way to go boom on the 15th. Nice dig on the vort and much less pos tilt compared to 6z. Suface low pops in central va. I'm sliding my ante in on the table right now... And it boomed. i95 jackpot of wet snow GFS'd next week. Anxious to see ens and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Nice hit on the GFS. 850's look good, does the surface cooperate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Nice hit on the GFS. 850's look good, does the surface cooperate? not really per ncep, but it isn't very detailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GFS'd next week. Anxious to see ens and Euro Pretty nice vort pass and good surface low. If it can dig just 50 miles south and lose some of the influence form the low to the north we'd be in much better shape. Surface remains a disaster. Thicknesses and 850's are good. Heavy rates advertised would put snow on an above freezing ground. verbatim it's i95 - east mostly. Glad to see the gfs keep hanging onto the trailing energy and nice vort pass. Euro hasn't been impressed but we're getting kinda close in now so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Nice hit on the GFS. 850's look good, does the surface cooperate? Upper air looks good, including 850s and thickness, but the surface temperatures verbatim are awful (taking a quick glance). Above freezing the entire time. But who knows, that's a detail at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Nice hit on the GFS. 850's look good, does the surface cooperate? Surface gets fooked by the low to the N. That's a big problem. But it's something to watch and it's well inside of lala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Im all in....nice vorticity to our south, 500 looks good, low strengthens as it reaches the coast and cold air is coming with it....I think this one is sold for an area wide 2-5" and a DC record breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm waiting for Ian to have someone throw his chips in the pot again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 wet snow in january is not cool...wet snow is reserved for like Palm Sunday and Late Feb/early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just wondering, I know JB hypes storms but when is this superstorm redux happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I'm waiting for Ian to have someone throw his chips in the pot again. he needs to get off the pot first lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 wet snow in january is not cool...wet snow is reserved for like Palm Sunday and Late Feb/early March You should be good then. According the the gfs you are fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 wet snow in january is not cool...wet snow is reserved for like Palm Sunday and Late Feb/early March Picky picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You should be good then. According the the gfs you are fringed. yep. Good luck with this one bro. Its awesome when the entire snowstorm occurs with temps above freezing during the daytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 yep. Good luck with this one bro. Its awesome when the entire snowstorm occurs with temps above freezing during the daytime Dynamics and thundersnow with this setup. Not totally kidding. This is the kind of setup that bombs and pounds. But it's flawed like a mofo so I remain skeptical. A little more dig and separation from the low to the north and all bets are off. Nothing better to do right now anyways except track the flawed vort with little support from other models. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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