CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think that they try to convey a sense of originality...."our presentation is unique". and dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think what is lost by many of the downers and Leonites is that this pattern evolved pretty much exactly as some expected. The only thing that changed was we went from few/several day cold shots followed by a day or two of warmth to protracted cold shots and equally protracted warm shots mixed in. Now after 10-17 days of mostly more mild weather we're about to dump back into a predominantly cold pattern. This is winter 2013-14, it won't be wall to wall cold or any of that crap, nor will be end to end warmth. It will continue to oscillate and it won't be a great snow pack year if you have a fetish of 30 days of cover etc. Meanwhile enjoy todays 40 to spot 50 across almost all of New England. Torch on! 17 days of mild wx? We've had 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 and dumb. Agreed, but don't shoot the messanger. Like no ther outlet is competent enough to provide an adequate 10 day outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I love at hr312, with no blocking in the Atlantic, surface low tracks north of New England, and it's all warm conveyor belt precip running over the cold front. And still it's all snow for most people. Just imbedded in the arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I love at hr312, with no blocking in the Atlantic, surface low tracks north of New England, and it's all warm conveyor belt precip running over the cold front. And still it's all snow for most people. Just imbedded in the arctic air. Do us a favor and spin around enough to create a low booting out of OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Do us a favor and spin around enough to create a low booting out of OK. lol seriously, that's what you need. A nice STJ connection, boom. Especially once ridging bridges across Greenland and the Baffin Island in early February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 lol seriously, that's what you need. A nice STJ connection, boom. Especially once ridging bridges across Greenland and the Baffin Island in early February I'm hoping we see disturbances push out of the Plains later in the month. I think that's possible with lowering heights in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'm hoping we see disturbances push out of the Plains later in the month. I think that's possible with lowering heights in the west. Sweet. I like that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro is answering the weenies at hr 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Big thump dump on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The arctic comes in after too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 My name is humpy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 My name is humpy... thumpty dumpty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro is answering the weenies at hr 150. The arctic comes in after too. that would be awesome to get snowcover right before the arctic comes in...even a few inches would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 That siggy has been there for days on both the op and Ens for the 22nd timeframe. We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 17 days of mild wx? We've had 4-5 More like 5 or 6 with a few more to come. Should have read 10-12 days. Days and days of deep winter coming. Leon is coming back to save everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 More like 5 or 6 with a few more to come. Should have read 10-12 days. Days and days of deep winter coming. Leon is coming back to save everyone. Check your messages on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Thankfully I still have solid snow cover despite this week's temps. Looking forward to getting back into cold weather and going wire to wire with snow otg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro is answering the weenies at hr 150. Not sure I buy it though... It's failed now on 2 consecutive coastals for that time range, mainly because its (you know this...) native meridional bias beyond ~D4.5 tends to compensate for fast flow anomaly...then conveniently slowing things down enough for cyclogen... blah blah blah... it may not be that deep in the OV in the first place, or ... it may be, but there may still be wave-interference to contend with. Pick your cliche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Not sure I buy it though... It's failed now on 2 consecutive coastals for that time range, mainly because its (you know this...) native meridional bias beyond ~D4.5 tends to compensate for fast flow anomaly...then conveniently slowing things down enough for cyclogen... blah blah blah... it may not be that deep in the OV in the first place, or ... it may be, but there may still be wave-interference to contend with. Pick your cliche Yep, Idk if it is just me, but it seems the EURO has been doing this a LOT more lately. I've honestly been using the GFS more for specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 what makes a ten day exclusive rather than inclusive? If you don't read Matt's forecast and ONLY his forecast then cold weather for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Well I never said I bought it...just what it showed. All models now show something, so it's not a simple reason to dismiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Nobody mentioned the short term Euro with its bouts of snow, wintry times ahead . Back in the day of Leon there was a norlun which whacked NYC , LI from a very similar setup, in fact its on the analog list. Good times Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Nobody mentioned the short term Euro with its bouts of snow, wintry times ahead . Back in the day of Leon there was a norlun which whacked NYC , LI from a very similar setup, in fact its on the analog list. Good times Good times Tickle tomorrow..two hand touch Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I posted this in the other thread by accident: If we were to get a larger type storm in this pattern (at least initially), it will be in the form of a clipper amplifying into a Miller B. Perhaps later on near the very end of the month, we could see a better chance at a larger scale system out of the plains as the PNA ridge relaxes just a bit. But those steep amplifying PNA ridges are what you look for when you are trying to get a Manitoba Mauler type Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 MMs are also not modeled well too so QPF queens need to remember this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This year or any year isn't really different. Model QPF is one of the worst skilled parameters. This is why you hear some of us harp on stuff like 700mb lows and being in a good area for frontogenesis while not really having significant QPF. Of course those areas end up getting hit the hardest. This example bouls down to snow physics and models not hendling mesoscale aspects like banding.....but imagine how bad it will be when you are beyond 10 days out? Thanks Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Euro ensembles have a good signal for a cstl low on the 22nd and 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 lol seriously, that's what you need. A nice STJ connection, boom. Especially once ridging bridges across Greenland and the Baffin Island in early February OK fellow old timers.....was the famous "Tales from Baffin Island" from WWBB ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 That was a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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