40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hell no, just playing, I am as confidant as you are that spilt flow develops and the last week of Jan and first week of Feb are pretty damn good. Before that even I think the GFS is way too dry for the vT crew. I would bring the cows in from the grazing green grass fields of VT before this weekend. Yea, I'm down for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It's funny how much urine can be poured into the cheerios of some. Looking forward to the change coming up. Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The season is about normal right now regarding sf imby, but if somehow Feb didn't produce, then I'd be ready to name my fat, beast of a man in the shed "Leon"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Different look at Cannon Mtn today. Upslope last nite Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN10m *Fresh* snow at @cannonmountain fell before dawn...today! "Cannon Effect" brought 2-3", 5" summit: http://ow.ly/i/4isjg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 My perspective is absolutely affected by my walk this morning, through the 6-10 inches in my yard, through the woods where there were 8-14 inches on the ground. I need to develop more empathy. Had to wear my snowboots because it was so deep in the woods. Kinda needed snowshoes. Deep Deep Winter. More incoming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 problem is nothing is modeled as a 1-3 clipper on the goofus, more like dusting to 1 Who cares what the GFS shows? it's awful and noone should be taking it seriously. Clippers are there and we will have snowcover within a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Different look at Cannon Mtn today. Upslope last nite Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN10m *Fresh* snow at @cannonmountain fell before dawn...today! "Cannon Effect" brought 2-3", 5" summit: http://ow.ly/i/4isjg Epic even the glades are rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Who cares what the GFS shows? it's awful and noone should be taking it seriously. Clippers are there and we will have snowcover within a week not for nothing but it has been pretty damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The season is about normal right now regarding sf imby, but if somehow Feb didn't produce, then I'd be ready to name my fat, beast of a man in the shed "Leon"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Who cares what the GFS shows? it's awful and noone should be taking it seriously. Clippers are there and we will have snowcover within a week It's been pretty good IMO. It's been pretty consistent, and is taking the lead on the weekend non event. The euro was way to amped up in mid range. Obviously the model has it's flaws, but all in all it's been okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 not for nothing but it has been pretty damn good I was about to say, its been owning the EURO of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 My perspective is absolutely affected by my walk this morning, through the 6-10 inches in my yard, through the woods where there were 8-14 inches on the ground. I need to develop more empathy. Had to wear my snowboots because it was so deep in the woods. Kinda needed snowshoes. Deep Deep Winter. More incoming.... You guys , Gene, Brian, Jeff Eric etc have had a great winter, VT, not so much. Genes post in the NNE thread with the contrasting pictures of NH and VT says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The pattern has affected many here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 People are taking op runs past day 5 way too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Epic even the glades are rocking On days like that, you have to be careful not to lose equiptment in the deep powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 yeah the strong thing took off after Irene with Boston Strong and Jersey Strong etc. Anyway I see people are coming around to my punt January thinking for up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 You guys , Gene, Brian, Jeff Eric etc have had a great winter, VT, not so much They are living my 2009-2010 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 not for nothing but it has been pretty damn good Yeah its been doing okay on those D4-5 threats this winter. It shat the bed on the clipper/redeveloper in December, but other than that, not bad. It did better than the Euro on the Jan 2-3 deal about 4-5 days out. Just don't use it for long range stuff. It's insistance on Jan 20-30 being a furnace straight out of 2011-2012 was bizarre and a bad black mark for its "beyond D6" marks this winter. It also got schooled on the mid-January torch that the Euro showed while GEFS wanted to keep it cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 On days like that, you have to be careful not to lose equiptment in the deep powder. Cannon did look nice in that pic with fresh snow. As usual its not as bad as some make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yeah its been doing okay on those D4-5 threats this winter. It shat the bed on the clipper/redeveloper in December, but other than that, not bad. It did better than the Euro on the Jan 2-3 deal about 4-5 days out. Just don't use it for long range stuff. It's insistance on Jan 20-30 being a furnace straight out of 2011-2012 was bizarre and a bad black mark for its "beyond D6" marks this winter. It also got schooled on the mid-January torch that the Euro showed while GEFS wanted to keep it cold. Exactly, seems to be much better on surface synoptics while ****s the bed at 5H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 yeah the strong thing took off after Irene with Boston Strong and Jersey Strong etc. Anyway I see people are coming around to my punt January thinking for up here? uh, the long range GFS is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 You guys , Gene, Brian, Jeff Eric etc have had a great winter, VT, not so much. Genes post in the NNE thread with the contrasting pictures of NH and VT says it all Not a great winter but a good one. 2 double digit storms and some solid light-moderate events. Halfway to our average. The CAD and snowpack retention has been amazing here. Reminds me of riding around here in 2008 (just before we bought our house) when there had been a bit of a thaw. Went up to Whitefield in the white mountains and there wasn't much snow on the ground. But down here there was 2ft plus on the level and huge huge piles everywhere. I didn't realize what an amazing snowpack retention spot I had moved to. I was surprised by how deep it was in the woods today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Not a great winter but a good one. 2 double digit storms and some solid light-moderate events. Halfway to our average. The CAD and snowpack retention has been amazing here. Reminds me of riding around here in 2008 (just before we bought our house) when there had been a bit of a thaw. Went up to Whitefield in the white mountains and there wasn't much snow on the ground. But down here there was 2ft plus on the level and huge huge piles everywhere. I didn't realize what an amazing snowpack retention spot I had moved to. I was surprised by how deep it was in the woods today. lOl at your sig, what is a profit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This winter has been a wonderful illustration of the benefits of living east of the Green mts, thus being able to avail of CAD in the retention of snow cover. A pattern laden with +pps n of ME coupled swith some late developers produces quite the dichotomy between the two regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This winter has been a wonderful illustration of the benefits of living east of the Green mts, thus being able to avail of CAD in the retention of snow cover. A pattern laden with +pps n of ME coupled swith some late developers produces quite the dichotomy between the two regions. growing up I grew an affinity for Maine because winters in the 60s early 70s were like this one. The recent decades favored VT, perhaps the worm is turning, selling property in VT might be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The analog patterns are pretty snowy. More than half of them produced double digit snowfall at BOS within 5 days of the analog date and only 2 of them were dead ratters for snow. It doesn't mean this one will turn out great, but long range forecasting is all about probabilities. Right now, you'd definitely say the chances of above average snow in that 10 day window is much higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The analog patterns are pretty snowy. More than half of them produced double digit snowfall at BOS within 5 days of the analog date and only 2 of them were dead ratters for snow. It doesn't mean this one will turn out great, but long range forecasting is all about probabilities. Right now, you'd definitely say the chances of above average snow in that 10 day window is much higher than normal. It's falling on deaf ears it seems. If it's not modeled, it won't happen. I have over 34" of snow that did not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 It's falling on deaf ears it seems. If it's not modeled, it won't happen. I have over 34" of snow that did not happen. Did you forget last year? All we heard was "same ol' same ol'" when we got into late January and early February about storm chances. Its a persistent behavior on here. You get a week or two of snowless weather and all of the sudden the "trendy" thing to post is how nothing will develop and the pattern is now repeating past years where it didn't snow. But whatever, I'll stick the probabilistic side of things for now. That is what you do in LR forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 3rd installment of my six week experiment was put out Jan 8th . I failed miserable this week in the 2nd six week forecast but did reasonable well in other weeks, here is the previous six week forecast. I believe I understand where I made my mistakes for the tail end weeks, should have been a week later on the thaw and a week later on the cold. experimental and for fun WE 12/13/13 Continued well below normal with some snow chances during this period with LES events -3 to -6 W/E 12/20/13 Much warmer period with a significant snow to rain event for SNE possible heavy snow way inland before a warm spell +2-+5 possible snowstorm on the 21st WE 12/27/13 Much warmer with a possible Grinch storm cutter temps +3,+5 W/E 1/4/14 Return to below normal cold possible coastal snowstorm around the 4th -2,-4 W/E 1/11/14 Much warmer than normal throught the NE , +4-+6 W/E 1/18/14 coldest air of the season with a possible record setting cold -4 to -7, clipper Miller B New six week attempt issued 1/8/14 experimental and for fun WE 01/25/14 Continued well below normal with possible large area snow storm 1/22-1/24 possible significant clipper on the 25th -4 to -6 W/E 02/01/11 Continued well below normal with possible coastal snow storm 1/28-1/30 , entire country is cold to end the month -4 to -6 W/E 02/08/14 Brief warm up 2/3 with an interior snow storm 4/5 cold then the thaw begins 2/7 0 to+2 W/E 2/15/14 Much warmer than normal through the NE thaw week with rain interior possible ice interior way above normal, +4 to +6 W/E 2/22/14 return to normal with moderate snows around the 19th 20th and 22/23rd 0 to -1 W/E 3/1/14 month ends with a bang with a big coastal storm, may be suppressed SNE , MA best then vodka cold -5 to -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Did you forget last year? All we heard was "same ol' same ol'" when we got into late January and early February about storm chances. Its a persistent behavior on here. You get a week or two of snowless weather and all of the sudden the "trendy" thing to post is how nothing will develop and the pattern is now repeating past years where it didn't snow. But whatever, I'll stick the probabilistic side of things for now. That is what you do in LR forecasting. Oh I remember it vividly. Although, I started to become a little jaded and not care by mid January..lol. Regardless, about this time last year we started seeing signs of improvement so all hope was not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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