CapturedNature Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 With some of the long range guidance indicating a nice and active pattern as we enter 2014, I thought it was time to start a thread to focus on the January pattern. Besides, tomorrow is my birthday so maybe I can bring some birthday juju to the group. lol So, what will we have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I still feel like its status quo with some exceptions. It seems like we will still have a negative EPO, but also the PNA may try to flip positive as well. The PV will shift east and the cold may as well, especially with a positive PNA. So it may be that coldest anomalies are in the Great Lakes and northeast. It's also more favorable for Miller Bs potentially. We still see a semblance of a SE ridge so SWFE will be possible if this persists. All in all I like the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I still feel like its status quo with some exceptions. It seems like we will still have a negative EPO, but also the PNA may try to flip positive as well. The PV will shift east and the cold may as well, especially with a positive PNA. So it may be that coldest anomalies are in the Great Lakes and northeast. It's also more favorable for Miller Bs potentially. We still see a semblance of a SE ridge so SWFE will be possible if this persists. All in all I like the pattern.looks like some chances for storms for sure as we head into january in the northeast. EPO looks to remain the one constant and if we get some timed with a storm we'll be in business....stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Two to 3 weeks out seems like eternity to me wrt teleconnector changes likely to occur. Is EPO still forecast to take a breather, i heard the WPO supports the (hopefully) temporary guidance leaning toward a +EPO / relaxation period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Two to 3 weeks out seems like eternity to me wrt teleconnector changes likely to occur. Is EPO still forecast to take a breather, i heard the WPO supports the (hopefully) temporary guidance leaning toward a +EPO / relaxation period Read my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 -EPO/+NAO seems to be the dominant feature going forward into early January. As Scott said, there are some periods where the PNA look to go positive...but it looks variable on that front. Fast flow and lack of downstream blocking in the Atlantic will keep most of our snow threats as SWFEs and clippers/redevelopers. If we get lucky, we can get one to dig enough to to perhaps turn into a fast moving Miller B (the clipper the other night almost achieved this), but we are lacking a slow blocked up pattern on our side of the oceans so coastal storms won't be the feature presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 -EPO/+NAO seems to be the dominant feature going forward into early January. As Scott said, there are some periods where the PNA look to go positive...but it looks variable on that front. Fast flow and lack of downstream blocking in the Atlantic will keep most of our snow threats as SWFEs and clippers/redevelopers. If we get lucky, we can get one to dig enough to to perhaps turn into a fast moving Miller B (the clipper the other night almost achieved this), but we are lacking a slow blocked up pattern on our side of the oceans so coastal storms won't be the feature presentation. Leon esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 06z GEFS are awesome looking. It looks to me the EC is still falling into its bias of flattening out the -EPO. Despite that, the signal is still there even on the EC ensembles. The tropical signal still is strong in Indonesia and may get a push east. Those two cyclones in the IO may skew the RMM plots so when those die, we may see the RMM plots move more east. Paul Roundy's stat guidance looks to keep things in a more favorable spot between 135E and near the dateline. Until a whole-scale hemispheric pattern change is underway, I think its persistence FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 06z GEFS are awesome looking. It looks to me the EC is still falling into its bias of flattening out the -EPO. Despite that, the signal is still there even on the EC ensembles. The tropical signal still is strong in Indonesia and may get a push east. Those two cyclones in the IO may skew the RMM plots so when those die, we may see the RMM plots move more east. Paul Roundy's stat guidance looks to keep things in a more favorable spot between 135E and near the dateline. Until a whole-scale hemispheric pattern change is underway, I think its persistence FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah I mean I think the overall pattern still looks pretty good. The +NAO may cause us to ride the line...but from afar...I think the cold will be there and storm tracks close by. That's about all you can say and a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah I mean I think the overall pattern still looks pretty good. The +NAO may cause us to ride the line...but from afar...I think the cold will be there and storm tracks close by. That's about all you can say and a win in my book. I think I'll end up with 80-90" of snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I think I'll end up with 80-90" of snow this season. Very well may be the revenge of NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 great to see all the early 60s winters showing up in the analogs, pretty classic so far as to my memories of youth with thaws too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Very well may be the revenge of NE MA. Regression is a b*tch....then we rain. It seems to me that the variance between Kev and I is established in a pretty definitive manner. What I mean by that is that when I beat him, I BEAT him.....I have greater potential, but the frequency at which he wins is greater. I can really trounce him when there is a latidudnal gradient.....conerversely, his elevation and greater distance from the ocean are somewhat offset by the difference in latitude, but its still great enough that he will often edge me out late in the game, when elevation becomes more crucial. Funny how two spots can have similar averages, yet get there different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Regression is a b*tch....then we rain. It seems to me that the variance between Kev and I is established in a pretty definitive manner. What I mean by that is that when I beat him, I BEAT him.....I have greater potential, but the frequency at which he wins is greater. I can really trounce him when there is a latidudnal gradient.....conerversely, his elevation and greater distance from the ocean are somewhat offset by the difference in latitude, but its still great enough that he will often edge me out late in the game, when elevation becomes more crucial. Funny how two spots can have similar averages, yet get there different ways. Pretty much. He really needs the early and late season events that are a 1k festivus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Regression is a b*tch....then we rain. It seems to me that the variance between Kev and I is established in a pretty definitive manner. What I mean by that is that when I beat him, I BEAT him.....I have greater potential, but the frequency at which he wins is greater. I can really trounce him when there is a latidudnal gradient.....conerversely, his elevation and greater distance from the ocean are somewhat offset by the difference in latitude, but its still great enough that he will often edge me out late in the game, when elevation becomes more crucial. Funny how two spots can have similar averages, yet get there different ways. So thats what its all about, beating Kev, too funny. Get out and play in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Regression is a b*tch....then we rain. It seems to me that the variance between Kev and I is established in a pretty definitive manner. What I mean by that is that when I beat him, I BEAT him.....I have greater potential, but the frequency at which he wins is greater. I can really trounce him when there is a latidudnal gradient.....conerversely, his elevation and greater distance from the ocean are somewhat offset by the difference in latitude, but its still great enough that he will often edge me out late in the game, when elevation becomes more crucial. Funny how two spots can have similar averages, yet get there different ways. So thats what its all about, beating Kev, too funny. Get out and play in it. Exactly but to each his own I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 So thats what its all about, beating Kev, too funny. Get out and play in it. Exactly but to each his own I guess. Something was obviously lost on the two of you because all I was doing was analyzing the respective microclimates. The rivalry thing is all in good fun...take a deep breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Something was obviously lost on the two of you because all I was doing was analyzing the respective microclimates. The rivalry thing is all in good fun...take a deep breath. Lol, back at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Lol, back at you. Back at you, infinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Many boys crying for their mama on the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Man, I feel like a kid on Chri.....eh, a kid who can't wait for Christmas to get the phuck out of my way, so that I may unwrap me some SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Many boys crying for their mama on the GFS op. and a Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Many boys crying for their mama on the GFS op. LOL at the size of that PV at 384h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 That run is pretty comical. Jan 1994, we missed you after 20 years. Been a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Leon's vitamins are working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Leon's Viagra is working. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Complete cold and snow chances on the 12z GEFS. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Complete cold and snow chances on the 12z GEFS. Jeez. Real good look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GEFS would be hard pressed to be better...lol. Euro ens out to d10 last night pretty good. Let's bomb into 2014! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.